Morning Notes : ARCAD NA, DIE BB, FUR NA, TESB BB, TINC BB, UCB BB

: ARCAD NA, DIE BB, FUR NA, TESB BB, TINC BB, UCB BB

UCB Model update: UCB's five growth drivers into the next decade

UCB is entering a next stage of growth as it turns the page on the loss of exclusivity of several of its mature assets. The new chapter will focus strongly on five growth drivers: Bimzelx, Rystiggo, Zilbrysq, Fintepla and Evenity. Jointly, these assets could deliver significant topline growth and margin improvements in the coming years. We have conducted an extensive update of our model to incorporate these new dynamics. Our DCF-based valuation points to a fair value of € 143 per share (previous...

UCB Bimzelx launch tracker

Our Bimzelx launch tracker tool keeps an eye on the ongoing commercialization of Bimzelx in the US by looking at total prescriptions (TRx). Our latest figure for week 22 points to 898 TRx, down 2% versus last week's result, and up 11% on a 4-week rolling basis. Altogether, we see a smooth ramp-up for Bimzelx in its first months since launch.

Benelux Morning Notes

Azelis: Strong margin performance in weak trading results in 3% EBITA beat. BE Semiconductor Industries: 1Q24 results; prolonged downcycle. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc: Messy but good. DWS: Record breaking. Flow Traders: Crypto Kings. Fugro: Here we go again. Kinepolis: Weak start to the year, but a bit better than feared. UCB: Changes in the group executive committee. Unilever: Heading in the right direction. Vonovia: Disposal of 4,500 apartments for €700m. Wolters Kl...

Morning Notes : ADYEN NA, ASML NA, BESI NA, FLOW NA, FUR NA, HEIA NA, ...

: ADYEN NA, ASML NA, BESI NA, FLOW NA, FUR NA, HEIA NA, HOMI BB, KIN BB, VGP BB, WDP BB, XFAB FP, AZE BB, ONWD BB

ASML Valuation method update

In this note we make a small adjustment to our forecast, give a valuation overview and change our valuation method. We still see reasons to remain cautious as inventories remain elevated, while the divergence between WFE revenue growth and Semi manufacturers CapEx growth continues to diverge. Furthermore, we provide an extensive multiple overview. Finally, we adjust our valuation method. Our current target price is for 50% based on DCF valuation, 30% based on peer multiples and 20% based on 2025...

Benelux Morning Notes

Kendrion: Preview - no recovery yet, lower costs in IB. PostNL: Preview 1Q24F, consensus released, comfort on parcels. UCB: Bimzelx now approved in four indications in Europe

UCB Bimzelx launch tracker

Our Bimzelx launch tracker tool keeps an eye on the ongoing commercialization of Bimzelx in the US by looking at total prescriptions (TRx). Our latest figure for week 21 points to 914 TRx, up 3% in a holiday week versus last week's result, which was overreported after the resolution of the hack attack, and up 15% on a 4-week rolling basis. Altogether, we see a smooth ramp-up for Bimzelx in its first months since launch.

UCB Bimzelx gets EU nod for HS

UCB obtained EU regulatory approval for Bimzelx in HS, marking the first global approval in this hard-to-treat indication. Based on the Phase 3 data, we see a strong reason to play for Bimzelx in the HS space and anticipate approx. € 650m peak sales next decade.

UCB - Green light for BIMZELX® in hidradenitis suppurativa in Europe

BIMZELX® has been granted marketing authorization in EU for the treatment of active moderate to severe hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) in adults. This approval follows positive CHMP opinion issued in March 2024.We model HS as the 2nd biggest indication for BIMZELX®, with close to EUR1bn in peak sales, after plaque psoriasis, with the EU making up about 25% of peak sales.We have a combined 85% LoA for the USA, EU, & JPN in our model and upon approval in all said geographies our TP moves up EUR 1.8 ...

Chinese WFE imports down 17% in 1Q24. Our quick take.

Chinese customs released data on monthly WFE imports this morning.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/18/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 18/04/2024

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ASML : Weak order intake in Q1 (TSMC absent again, not set to be on th...

>Subdued Q1 24 orders, but this does not change the structural story, and we maintain our Outperform rating and € 1,100 target price - ASML yesterday reported better than expected Q1 24 results (EPS better, despite sales falling short), but importantly posted orders of € 3.6bn, well short of the consensus, due to TMSC’s virtual absence from the backlog this quarter (again). But the group confirmed 2024 is set to be a stable year, with H2 showing growth, but 2025 shou...

ASML : Commandes faibles au T1 (absence encore une fois de TSMC, qui n...

>Des commandes T1 24 faibles, mais cela ne change rien à l’histoire, nous réitérons donc notre opinion Surperformance et maintenons notre OC de 1 100 € - Hier, ASML a publié des résultats T1 24 > aux attentes (BPA >, malgré un CA

ASML 1Q24: Pullback in orders; China revenues normalizing; limited nea...

ASML HOLDING NV: MENSAJES DE LA CONFERENCE CALL RDOS. 1T'24 (ANÁLISIS ...

De la conference call de Rdos. 1T’24 destacamos:

ASML : Low Q1 orders prove that the order trend can be very lumpy, but...

>Q1 24 results above expectations despite slightly lower sales, bookings way below expectations proving quarterly lumpiness - This morning, ASML reported its Q1 24 results which were above expectations despite slightly lower-than-expected sales. Revenues were € 5,290m, below the consensus at € 5,419m (vs ODDO BHF estimates at € 5,347m and the guided range of € 5-5.5bn), including €1,324m of installed base management. 49% of equipment sales were made in China vs 39% i...