Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
China’s internet companies reported resilient 3Q25 top-line growth and continuous margin improvement in the online gaming and OTA sectors, empowered by improved AI efficiency and benign competition. Margin pressure in e-commerce due to the intense on-demand delivery competition is likely to ease in 4Q25, but could persist into 2026 given the continuous investment and tough comparison base boosted by the trade-in programme in 2025. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Alibaba, Tencent, TCOM, TME, Ne...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Highlights We expect global liquidity cycle to remain strong for at least 1H26, following the Fed’s return to policy easing in Sep 25, benefitting emerging market assets and commodities. Chinese equities are likely to rally further, and our index target for MSCI China index target is at 104 pts based on 16.3x 12-month forward PE and 6% EPS growth assumption. We prefer exposure to growth industries like AI/semiconductors, automation/robotics, ADAS and innovative drugs and liquidity proxies ...
Report Overview: Our analysis includes total web visits (desktop and mobile) to U.S. and international web domains, mobile app monthly active users (MAUs), daily active users (DAUs), and total time spent (where applicable). Throughout the report, we display Y/Y changes across each of these key metr
Tencent’s 3Q25 earnings came in better than expected. Revenue grew 15.4% yoy to Rmb192.9b, 2-3% ahead of our and consensus estimates. Gross margin expanded 3.3ppt yoy to 56.4%, in line with consensus forecasts. Non-IFRS operating profit grew 18.4% yoy to Rmb72.6b, while non-IFRS operating margin expanded 1ppt yoy to 37.6% on a positive shift in revenue mix. Non-IFRS diluted EPS ramped up 19.5% yoy, 6.5% higher than consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$800.00.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in O...
What’s new: Tencent’s reported 3Q25 results that were above consensus and our expectations. Rev growth momentum could continue in 4Q partly driven by resiliency across key business segments. We maintain our PT at HKD750 Analysts: Jin Yoon
Top Stories Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in Oc...
Post-results, we think the disconnect between fundamentals and investor sentiment offers attractive upside for the highest-quality names in our coverage. We’ve become more constructive on the companies below:META (Outperform) - We are adding Meta Platforms to the Best Ideas List and maintain our $9
What’s new: SE’s reported 3Q25 top-line results that were above consensus and our expectations. Rev growth momentum could continue in 4Q where Shopee GMV could grow more than 25% YoY, and Garena remains on track to achieve more than 30% YoY growth in bookings for FY25. We maintain our PT at USD200. Analysts: Jin Yoon
SEA reported a softer 3Q25 as Shopee’s reinvestment in marketing and logistics compressed margins, offsetting robust growth in Monee and Garena. While near-term profitability moderates, core fundamentals remain strong. We cut 2025-27 earnings by 25-28% and lower our target price by 2% to US$200.18. Maintain BUY on SEA’s long-term growth prospects, supported by continued user acquisition and logistics enhancement.
Figure 1. 3Q25 ResultsSource: Company reports, Wedbush estimates, VisibleAlpha consensusHealthy results in 3Q. Total revenue of $6.0B (+38.3% Y/Y) was ~6% above the Street's $5.6B (+30.2% Y/Y) estimate, with upside across all core segments relative to expectations. Specifically, the eCommerce segme
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
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