reports
- Maria Sukhanova
- Svetlana Sukhanova
TMT Quarterly - Internet over Telecom
This is the inaugural issue of TMT Quarterly. This new publication is mainly aimed at updating the investment community on our sector views and sharing our most and least preferred stocks for the coming quarter. Since our stock preferences in this report are for a shorter horizon than our typical 12-month recommendations, there may be some deviation. Our preference for the next three months is internet stocks. Both Yandex (48% upside to our target price) and Mail.ru Group (67% upside) continue t...
QIWI QIWI PLC SPONSORED ADR CLASS B
MKY MOBILE TELESYSTEMS PJSC SPONSORED ADR
MAIL MAIL.RU GROUP LTD. SPONSORED GDR
RTKM ROSTELECOM PJSC
MTSS MOBILE TELESYSTEMS PJSC
35V VIMPELCOM LTD. ADS
KCEL KCELL JOINT STOCK COMPANY
MFOYY MEGAFON PJSC
MFON MEGAFON
VIMP VEON
RTKMP ROSTELECOM (PREF A)
- Maria Sukhanova
- Svetlana Sukhanova
Wire Tap - E-Sports and Other News
The focus of the sixth edition of Wire Tap is the e-sports market, where Mail.ru Group and MTS recently gained exposure, although their entry costs differ substantially. We also touch on Mail.ru Group's development in the ad and gaming markets, VK's functionality, Yandex's effort to integrate Alisa into its navigation app, the new Digital Development Ministry and Rostelecom's support from state contracts.
BCS GM Equity Daily: Economics, EVRAZ, MMK, Inter RAO, Megafon
Trump’s Iran gambit ... double edged sword Ahead: Can’t ignore c$78/bbl. Heading back from Victory Day, the session for locals will be one of catch up – namely, tracking higher on the back of Brent. The latter has jumped to c$78/bbl on supply disruption from Venezuela but, more so, from Iran – the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and levied new sanctions on OPEC’s third-largest producer. The prospect of higher Brent bodes quite well for the Russia-risk trade, but the sanction al...
BCS GM Equity Daily: Economics, Unipro, Megafon, Real Estate
Putin’s list / decree, Brent wobble Ahead: Victory Day mode. Expect markets to retreat heading into Victory Day (9 May) and as it digests President Putin’s proposed Cabinet list and ‘National Goals’ decree. Most notably, markets may price in some disappointment that market liberal Alexei Kudrin was not tapped for Deputy PM, which casts doubt on the pace and degree of vital economic reforms. Dmitry Medvedev was again offered up as PM, which suggested status quo rather than reform. Putinâ...
- Alex Fak
- Alexander Kudrin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Maria Sukhanova
- Rodion Lomivorotov
- Sergei Konygin
CIS Market Daily - 8 Ð¼Ð°Ñ 2018
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - ПОСЛЕ СПОКОЙÐОЙ И ПОЗИТИВÐОЙ ТОРГОВОЙ СЕССИИ ПОÐЕДЕЛЬÐИКРСЕГОДÐЯ Ð’ ЦЕÐТРЕ Ð’ÐИМÐÐИЯ ИÐВЕСТОРОВ - СОГЛÐШЕÐИЕ ПО ИРÐÐСКОЙ ЯДЕРÐОЙ ПРОГРÐММЕПока торговые площадки в Лондоне были закрыты, Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ прибавил 0,6%, а MSCI EM - 0,3%. Ð¡ÐµÐ³Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ñ Ð² центре Ð²Ð½Ð¸Ð¼Ð°Ð½Ð¸Ñ Ð±ÑƒÐ...
- Aleksey Ryabushko
- Alex Fak
- Alexander Kudrin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Igor Vasilyev
- Irina Lapshina
- Julia Gordeyeva
- Maria Sukhanova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Nikolay Minko
- Rodion Lomivorotov
- Sergei Konygin
- Svetlana Sukhanova
CIS Market Daily - May 3, 2018
MARKET COMMENT - DECLINES OVER THE HOLIDAYS, MIXED INDICATORS THIS MORNINGThe RTS has fallen 0.9% since our last comment, versus a 0.6% gain for the MSCI EM. Last night's Fed meeting offered no surprises, while this morning oil is higher but APAC markets are mixed.STORIES> New OFAC guidance released> Russian basic sector output growth slows to 0.4% y-o-y in March> CBR Review: As expected, rate left unchanged> Rosneft seeks to deleverage, initiates a buyback> Surgutneftegaz cash balance breaks $1...
- Aleksey Ryabushko
- Alex Fak
- Alexander Kudrin
- Andrey Krylov
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Igor Vasilyev
- Irina Lapshina
- Julia Gordeyeva
- Maria Sukhanova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Nikolay Minko
- Rodion Lomivorotov
- Sergei Konygin
CIS Market Daily - 3 Ð¼Ð°Ñ 2018
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - Ð’ ВЫХОДÐЫЕ КОТИРОВКИ СÐИЖÐЛИСЬ; УТРЕÐÐИЕ ИÐДИКÐТОРЫ ÐЕОДÐОЗÐÐЧÐЫС публикации нашего поÑледнего ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ð°Ñ€Ð¸Ñ Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ упал на 0,9%, MSCI EM прибавил 0,6%. ЗаÑедание ФРС СШРзавершилоÑÑŒ вчера предÑказуемо. Ð¡ÐµÐ³Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ñ ÑƒÑ‚Ñ€Ð¾Ð¼ нефть дорожает, рынки ÐТРдемонÑтри...
- Maria Sukhanova
- Svetlana Sukhanova
Wire Tap - E-Commerce and Other News
The focus of the fifth edition of Wire Tap is the fragmented e-commerce market and its imminent consolidation. We also touch on fresh internet usage data from Mediascope, the Federal Telecommunications Inspection Service's blocking a number of Google's IP addresses, OK's user growth, the penetration of Yandex.News, details on the Yarovaya law, Russia's 5G auctions, telecom churn, MVNOs and the penetration of carriers' mobile video and music services in their subscriber bases.
- Alexander Kudrin
- Cole Akeson
- Maria Sukhanova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Svetlana Sukhanova
CIS Market Daily - April 20, 2018
MARKET COMMENT - MARKETS LOOK UNENTHUSIASTIC, WHILE OPEC+, IMF AND WB MEETThe RTS's recent recovery took a pause with a 0.1% slip to 1,154 yesterday. Markets look a bit soft globally this morning after a weak US session, though catalysts are few and far between. The OPEC+ monitoring committee meeting, continuing IMF and World Bank meetings in DC, and a number of scheduled Russian corporate events are on today's agenda.STORIES> Government finalizes Yarovaya law data storage requirements> Kcell Bo...
- Maria Sukhanova
- Svetlana Sukhanova
Wire Tap - Symbiosis of Internet and TV
This is the fourth edition of Wire Tap, a product highlighting interesting local news. The focus of this edition is on trends in the Russian ad market and the support that TV ad revenues are deriving from internet companies. Other news include Yandex’s signing up Avito to its ad network and the increasing take rate for its taxi service, VK’s progress in monetization, rising telecom frequency costs, crypto-currency mining in Russia, the Russian e-commerce market overall and color on Wildberri...
BCS GM Equity Daily: Economics, Lukoil, Russian Grids, Megafon
3-hike Fed, steady global growth, oil rebalancing Ahead: Sweet spot … save for trade war angst. Were it not for trade war posturing by the US and China that is threatening to escalate, markets would enjoy a sweet spot. US data points largely missed (factory orders, services PMI) to suggest a 3-, not a 4-rate hike play by the Fed this year, which supports the risk trade and oil. The US numbers also remained relatively solid, implying steady economic growth and, hence, no slippage in demand f...
- Alexander Kudrin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Maria Sukhanova
- Rodion Lomivorotov
- Sergei Konygin
- Svetlana Sukhanova
- Yuri Popov
CIS Market Daily - April 5, 2018
MARKET COMMENT - RISK ASSETS IN DEMAND WHILE INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL BACKDROP UNSTEADY Russia performed better than peers yesterday, the RTS up 0.3% versus a 1.2% drop for the MSCI EM. A positive shift in global sentiment after the US open provided support. Meanwhile, international political developments continue to drive mostly negative attention; for instance, news reports out of the US last night indicate that new sanctions could come as soon as today. STORIES > OPCW meeting offers no concl...
- Alexander Kudrin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Maria Sukhanova
- Rodion Lomivorotov
- Sergei Konygin
- Yuri Popov
CIS Market Daily - 5 Ð°Ð¿Ñ€ÐµÐ»Ñ 2018
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - РИСКОВÐÐÐЫЕ ÐКТИВЫ ПОЛЬЗУЮТСЯ СПРОСОМ, Ð’ÐЕШÐЕПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЙ ФОРÐЕСТÐБИЛЕРРоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð²Ñ‡ÐµÑ€Ð° показала опережающую динамику по Ñравнению Ñ ÑопоÑтавимыми рынками: Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ прибавил 0,3%, тогда как MSCI EM ÑнизилÑÑ Ð½Ð° 1,2%. ПоÑле начала торгов на американÑких пÐ...
BCS GM Equity Daily: RusHydro, Federal Grid Company, Megafon, Globaltr...
Trade tension eases, Brent rises v Spygate expulsions Ahead: Upside bias. Global bourses have rebounded on easing trade fears – save for the ‘spygate’ affair, Russia markets should follow suit. Brent is trading above $70/bbl, driven by speculation that behind the scenes US-China talks will prevent a trade war, OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia and Russia reiteration of their commitment to extend the rebalancing deal into 2019, and Middle East tension may lead to supply disruption. The fly in th...
- Alexander Kudrin
- Cole Akeson
- Irina Lapshina
- Maria Sukhanova
- Nikolay Minko
- Svetlana Sukhanova
CIS Market Daily - March 21, 2018
MARKET COMMENT - FED, THE DIGITAL ECONOMY AND OIL IN FOCUS TODAY Russia outperformed peers yesterday on a day of decently positive global risk sentiment and a surge in oil prices. Global and Russian market highlights expected today include the Fed’s hike forecast for this year, an EU proposal to tax digital companies, oil data and Lukoil’s results ahead of its Friday investor day. STORIES > CBR Preview: CBR set to cut another 25 bps > Polyus capital markets day: Running at full speed > Russ...
- Alexander Kudrin
- Cole Akeson
- Irina Lapshina
- Maria Sukhanova
- Nikolay Minko
CIS Market Daily - 21 марта 2018
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - СЕГОДÐЯ Ð’ ЦЕÐТРЕ Ð’ÐИМÐÐИЯ - ФРС, "ЦИФРОВÐЯ ÐКОÐОМИКÐ" И ÐЕФТЬ По итогам вчерашней торговой ÑеÑÑии РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¾Ð¿ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ´Ð¸Ð»Ð° аналоги Ð±Ð»Ð°Ð³Ð¾Ð´Ð°Ñ€Ñ Ð¿Ð¾Ð·Ð¸Ñ‚Ð¸Ð²Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ñƒ глобальному фону и роÑту цен на нефть. Ð¡ÐµÐ³Ð¾Ð´Ð½Ñ Ð¾Ð¶Ð¸Ð´Ð°ÑŽÑ‚ÑÑ Ð¾Ñ†ÐµÐ½ÐºÐ° Федрезервом перÑпектив в чаÑти повышени...
- Maria Sukhanova
- Svetlana Sukhanova
РоÑÑийÑкие операторы Ñотовой ÑвÑзи - К...
ПоÑле того как МТС и МегаФон предÑтавили Ñвои прогнозы на 2018 год, различие между компаниÑми по профилю риÑков, на которое мы обращали внимание в ÑнварÑком обзоре ("РоÑÑийÑкие операторы мобильной ÑвÑзи: МТС привлекательнее, чем МегаФон, Ñ Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ‡ÐºÐ¸ Ð·Ñ€ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Ñ€Ð¸Ñков"), Ñтало Ñвным. ОÐ...
- Aleksey Ryabushko
- Alexander Kudrin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Igor Vasilyev
- Irina Lapshina
- Julia Gordeyeva
- Kirill Plastinin
- Maria Sukhanova
- Rodion Lomivorotov
- Sergei Konygin
- Svetlana Sukhanova
CIS Market Daily - March 16, 2018
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA, OTHER EMS MUDDLING THROUGH DESPITE POLITICAL EVENTS Russia was in the middle of the pack yesterday, the RTS drifting 0.3% lower versus a 0.2% drop on the MSCI EM. The latest political developments had only a muted effect on Russian stocks, while US political events have unsteadied stocks in the US and globally. We are expecting a small drop at this morning’s open in response to a downbeat global trend. STORIES > More rhetoric in Skripal case; new, unrelated OFAC sanct...
- Aleksey Ryabushko
- Alexander Kudrin
- Andrey Kuznetsov
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Igor Vasilyev
- Irina Lapshina
- Julia Gordeyeva
- Kirill Plastinin
- Maria Sukhanova
- Rodion Lomivorotov
- Sergei Konygin
CIS Market Daily - 16 марта 2018
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - ÐЕСМОТРЯ ÐРПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ СОБЫТИЯ, Ð ÐЗВИВÐЮЩИЕСЯ РЫÐКИ, Ð’ ТОМ ЧИСЛЕ РОССИЙСКИЙ, ПРОДОЛЖÐЮТ ДВИЖЕÐИЕ ПО ИÐЕРЦИИ По итогам вчерашних торгов РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ÐºÐ°Ð·Ð°Ð»Ð° Ñредний результат: Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ проÑел на 0,3%, тогда как Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ MSCI EM ÑнизилÑÑ Ð½Ð° 0,2%. ПоÑледние полиÑ...
- Maria Sukhanova
- Svetlana Sukhanova
МегаФон - Вопреки дивидендной политикÐ...
Совет директоров МегаФона рекомендовал не выплачивать дивиденды в 2018 году. Ðто решение противоречит официальной дивидендной политике, ÑоглаÑно которой Ñреди акционеров должно раÑпределÑÑ‚ÑŒÑÑ Ð½Ðµ менее 70% Ñвободных денежных потоков. Мы полагаем, что оно обуÑловлено намере...
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