MARKET COMMENT - MOSCOW EQUITIES TO BE CLOSED ANOTHER WEEK WHILE VALUE STOCKS OUTPERFORMThe CBR has announced that equity trading will be closed another week. Possible negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are the focal point for Russia investors this week, while main themes elsewhere include resumed rotation to value stocks and above $100/bbl oil prices, all of which would be benefiting Russia in a normal market environment, but not this one.STORIES> Government allocates R1 trln to support th...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ТОРГИ В МОСКВЕ НЕ БУДУТ ПРОВОДИТЬСЯ ЕЩЕ НЕДЕЛЮ; НА ГЛОБАЛЬНОМ РЫНКЕ ОПЕРЕЖАЮЩУЮ ДИНАМИКУ ПОКАЗЫВАЮТ АКЦИИ СТОИМОСТИЦБ РФ принял решение еще неделю не возобновлять торги на МосБирже в секции фондового рынка. На текущей неделе в центре внимания будут возможные переговоры между Россией и Украиной. НОВОСТИ> Правительство выделило 1 трлн руб. на поддержку экономики> Нефтяные котировки консолидировались около минимумов прошлой недели в преддверии многочисленных событий на этой ...
MARKET COMMENT - MOSCOW TRADING REMAINS HALTED WHILE EYES REMAIN ON UKRAINERussian stocks continued to see only slight trading through Russia's long weekend. That will not change today, with the CBR having decided yesterday not to allow Moscow equity trading, continuing the halt since February 25 for a sixth business day.STORIES> How the crisis is evolving> US and UK seeking to embargo Russian oil and gas imports> Gazprom's export flows remain very strong> Rostelecom posts neutral 4Q21 IFRS resu...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗСША и Великобритания вводят эмбарго на импорт нефти и газа из России, экспортные доходы Газпрома растут, Ростелеком, HeadHunter, Магнит и М. Видео представили отчетность.НОВОСТИ> Как развивается кризис> США и Великобритания вводят эмбарго на импорт нефти и газа из России> Экспортные доходы Газпрома растут> Ростелеком представил нейтральные результаты за 4К21 по МСФО> Вопрос о погашении облигаций Яндекса и Ozon> HeadHunter: результаты за 4К21 несколько ниже прогнозов, выкуп а...
Rostelecom (RTKM RX; RTKMP RX; N/R) reported solid 4Q21 numbers, which came slightly above consensus estimates on revenue and EBITDA. Incremental mobile revenue growth of RUB3.5bn is still higher than those posted by VEON in Russia (RUB3.2bn), which suggests that Tele2 continues to gain market share. The company had RUB568bn in debt as of end-2021, which is 100% denominated in rubles. Overall, Rostelecom’s 2021 performance came slightly ahead of the company’s guidance. The company expectedly ...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: 4Q21 results largely in line, but near-term outlook very uncertain due to geopolitics • Mobile TeleSystems: 4Q21 results review - OIBDA up 6% yoy, in line with the consensus • Rostelecom: 4Q21 results review - OIBDA up 10% yoy, in line with the consensus • VK: 4Q21 results broadly in line with guidance • Astarta Holding: current operations • CD Projekt: suspension of sales in Russia and Belarus NEGATIVE • 4iG: finalises agreement with Rheinmetall on purchase of 25.12%...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented dislocations of capital and resources, on top of human tragedies. The sanctions imposed, by the world’s key nations, on Russia, its politicians, institutions, companies and businessmen, as well as the counter-measures introduced by the Russian government, are wide-ranging and continue to be imposed on a daily basis. The most severe sanctions are related to the freezing of the CBR’s FX reserves, as well as the freezing of non-residents’ assets...
MARKET COMMENT - MSCI RUSSIA -27% D-O-D WHILE RUSSIA-UKRAINE, SANCTIONS NEWS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE INVESTOR ATTENTIONEquity trading in Moscow was canceled for yesterday and today. The government announced a range of measures to stabilize the Russian financial environment, but the measures also create risks for institutional investors. The MSCI Russia fell 27% yesterday, while Russia-Ukraine developments, sanctions news and the OPEC+ discussion are the obvious areas of focus today.STORIES> MSCI to...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ИНДЕКС MSCI RUSSIA ЗА ДЕНЬ УПАЛ НА 27%, В ЦЕНТРЕ ВНИМАНИЯ СИТУАЦИЯ НА УКРАИНЕ И НОВОСТИ О САНКЦИЯХТорги на фондовом рынке в Москве вчера не проводились, и сегодня пауза продолжается. Правительство объявило ряд мер, нацеленных на стабилизацию финансовой ситуации в России, однако эти меры также создают риски для институциональных инвесторов. Индекс MSCI Russia упал на 27%. Сегодня в центре внимания остаются геополитические события. НОВОСТИ> Меры, принимаемые монетарными вла...
AT: EVN - Q1 21/22 EBITDA in line, net better than expected, EUR 200-240 mn net income guidance confirmed (neutral) AT: IMMOFINANZ - CPI reaches 53.3% stake in IMMOFINANZ (neutral) AT: Rosenbauer - Company intends to increase stake in its American subsidiary (positive) AT: Wienerberger - Divestment of French plastic piping business planned (positive) HR: Ericsson Nikola Tesla - Good performance in Q4 21 at all levels (positive) HR: Hrvatski Telekom - EBITDA margin set to further impr...
MARKET COMMENT - NEW RUSSIA-US DIPLOMATIC MEETING EASES SOME MARKET CONCERNSThe RTS sank 4.9% to 1,450 yesterday, sharply underperforming peers after a series of concerning political headlines in the afternoon. However, the announcement of a meeting next week between the top Russian and US diplomats has helped ease the tensions, and RTS futures are up 1.8% early this morning. The global backdrop has also improved to mixed after a weak day for global stock markets.STORIES> EPFR: Russia sees bette...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - НОВАЯ ЗАПЛАНИРОВАННАЯ ВСТРЕЧА ПРЕДСТАВИТЕЛЕЙ РОССИИ И США НЕСКОЛЬКО УСПОКОИЛА РЫНОКИндекс РТС вчера снизился на 4,9% до 1 450 пунктов, сильно отстав от других развивающихся рынков после ряда тревожных политических новостей. Однако сообщение о запланированной на следующую неделю встрече российских и американских дипломатов немного сгладило ситуацию, и сегодня утром фьючерсы на индекс РТС прибавили 1,8%. Ситуация на глобальных фондовых рынках также немного улучшилась. НОВОС...
The shares of Russian power-generating companies (gencos) dropped 12% in ruble terms in 2021, underperforming the broader market by 27 pp amid an acceleration in inflation and rise in interest rates in Russia, which dimmed the dividend outlooks and the increased capex risks. Given the depressed current share prices, most of the stocks offer attractive returns. We expect to see investors become a bit more interested in the sector during the dividend season in June-July, but we do not anticipate a...
The Russian stock market has declined over 11% since the start of the year and is off 27% since its highs in October 2021, on the new phase of geopolitical escalation. Assuming that open military conflict is avoided, Russian stocks are attractively priced, especially in the context of rising commodity prices. It is hard, if not impossible, to call the bottom in this market, and we do not attempt to forecast if and when the process of de-escalation could start. Generally, we have observed, many t...
The general evaluation of ROSTELEKOM PAO (RU), a company active in the Integrated Telecommunications industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 3 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as defensive. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Positive. As of the analysis date January 18, 2022, the closing price was R...
EME Equity Market – December 2021 Market performance – despite most markets being in the black, MSCI EM Europe declined by 1.7%. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.7% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms. The Czech PX Index continued with its solid performance and advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 5.1% in CZK. The Romanian BET Index added 7.1% in both EUR and local currency. Turkish equities, represented by the ISE30 Index, grew 5.3% in EUR and 4.2% in TRY. Poland’s WIG20 Index gained 4.8% in ...
HEADLINES: • Kety: strong 4Q21 preliminary figures, reassuring 2022E forecasts POSITIVE • Romanian regulated utilities: monopoly tax expired at end-2021 POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: USD 8m bookings in December 2021 vs. USD 7m in November 2021 POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: December bookings estimate at USD 18m, +6% mom NEUTRAL • AmRest: new long-term incentive plan approved NEUTRAL • Czech Republic macro: ending the year with a bang • Polish residential real estate: TAG buys Robyg for c.EUR 550m • A...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: can pay out up to 100% of 2021E net profit as dividends • PZU: insurance sector can pay up to 100% of 2020 net profit and up to 50% of 2021E net profit NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: all-time high sales (again) - PLN 1.2bn (+39% yoy) in November POSITIVE • Romania macro: finance minister says 2022 budget will not include new taxes • Electrica: shareholders reject acquisition of 29MW PV plant NEGATIVE • Richter: licenses denosumab biosimilar to Hikma for US market POSITIVE WO...
EME Equity Market – November 2021 Market performance – most markets down, with Czech PX Index (+3.0%) the exception. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 8.9% in EUR terms and 10.7% in USD in November. Prague’s PX Index added 3.0% in EUR terms and 2.3% in local currency, followed by the Romanian BET Index, which declined 3.2% in both EUR and RON terms. Greece’s ASE Index declined by 3.4% in EUR terms, while Hungary’s BUX Index declined by 6.2% in EUR and 5.0% in HUF. The Russian MOEX Index declined 8.6...
HEADLINES: • Turkish automotive: great expectations (transfer of coverage – Ford Otosan and Tofas – BUYs; Dogus Otomotiv – HOLD) • InPost: 3Q21 beat on Mondial Relay consolidation; 8% sales guidance cut on slower e-commerce market NEGATIVE • Ozon: 3Q21 financial results review POSITIVE • Georgia Capital: strong recovery continues in 3Q21 POSITIVE • Patria Bank: 3Q21 results review - COR remains elevated, other dynamics seem positive • KGHM: 3Q21 results review - EBITDA in line, but operating c...
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