reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
More Upside Expected; Upgrading Health Care Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we discussed would continue into the early part of 2024. Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. Bullish Outlook Intact. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are breaking out to new all-time highs, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM), mid-cap S&P 400 (IJH), Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF), ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Communications The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings. There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect a rally into year-end and the early part of 2024. Lockout Rally Continues. In our 12/4/23 ETF Pathfinder we discussed how this is a very strong market that is not likely to pull back -- and the surge higher has continued. The S...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Still Riding the Trend Higher; Upgrading Real Estate to Market Weight After discussing our expectations for a bounce in our 10/30/23 ETF Pathfinder with the Russell 2000 (IWM) testing major support at $162-$163, we outlined in our 11/20/23 ETF Pathfinder that we were shifting our outlook to bullish. Market-generated information has continued to be of the risk-on variety, which has only reinforced our bullish outlook on the broad equity market. Therefore, we continue to expect a rally into year-...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low. Then, in our November 2, 2023 Int'l Compass, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in the MSCI ACWI (local currency). Finally, we outlined in our November 16, 2023 Int'l Compass our belief that a year-end rally has begun in global equities (MSCI ACWI). Recent developments have...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? The S&P 500, Russell 2000 (IWM), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) continue to have trouble breaking above their respective 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280. With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout. We continue to recomm...
RNR RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD.
TLYS TILLYS
TJX TJX COMPANIES INC
RGA REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA INCORPORATED
EVEREST RE GROUP LTD.
GPS GAP INC.
ESGR ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED
BKE BUCKLE INC.
ANF ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO. CLASS A
AEO AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC.
ACGL ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD.
ROST ROSINTER RESTAURANTS HOLDING ORD SHS
DXYN DIXIE GROUP
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST
SERIES 1
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Rally Continues as USD & 10-Year Treasury Yield Break We continue to believe the market remains in bear market rally mode, though the Russell 2000 (IWM) has already achieved our price target at its 200-day MA, while the S&P 500 is only 2% away from hitting its 200-day MA. We have said that this is still a bear market as long as the S&P 500 and IWM are below their 200-day MAs, but, as we discussed in our Oct. 31 ETF Pathfinder, we continue to see signs that suggest reversals could be coming. Ma...
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
EWI BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
VGK VANGUARD MSCI EUROPEAN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Testing YTD Lows; 2.5-Yr Commodity Uptrend Breaking In our previous ETF Pathfinder (Sept. 6) we discussed how key supports were being tested at 3900 on the S&P 500, $293-294 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and that breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse. Those support levels have broken, and we are now getting a test of the YTD lows. With so many indexes and key Sectors (e.g., Financials, Industrials, Technology) curren...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Commodity & Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership Much of the recent strength in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been driven by a select few mega-cap growth names, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have not been able to reclaim important $209 and $134 resistance levels, respectively. This bifurcation between mega- and small/micro-caps can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market. However, there continues to be several attr...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Downgrading Technology To Underweight Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends. Sector Relative Strength Rankings. We are downgrading Technology to underweight; RS is trading within multi-month downtrends and is breaking below major support on the cap- and equal-weighted Sectors (XLK, RYT) -- reduce ex...
GBX GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC.
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
PEG PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
NI NISOURCE INC
MOS MOSAIC COMPANY
FE FIRSTENERGY CORP.
ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC.
DY DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC.
D DOMINION ENERGY INC
CF CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC.
AVD AMERICAN VANGUARD
FLR FLUOR CORPORATION
TRN TERNA S.P.A.
GATX GATX CORPORATION
WAB WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION
GNE GENIE ENERGY LTD. CL B
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
ICL ICL GROUP LTD.
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
TNX TANZANIAN GOLD
IPI INTREPID POTASH
SOM SOMEC
IWC ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
UAN ARCADIAN PARTNERS LP
OOO BETASHARES CRUDE OIL INDEX ETF - CURRENCY HEDGED SYNTHETIC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
tick With Value; Gold Breaking Out As noted in our last ETF Pathfinder (Jan. 31), we remain bearish on the Russell 2000 index (IWM) and Russell Micro Cap index (IWC) as long as they remain below important resistance levels of $208 and $134, respectively. Additionally, we noted our expectation for sideways consolidation on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), but that as long as 4257 and $334 supports hold, respectively, we cannot get too bearish. These levels have held, however we will reiterate t...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading Utilities Indexes continue to violate our key "lines in the sand" as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109. This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair. Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom. It is possible that yesterday's reversal could mark "th...
WEC WEC ENERGY GROUP INC
PPL PPL CORPORATION
PEG PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
LNT ALLIANT ENERGY CORP
ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC.
DUK DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION
D DOMINION ENERGY INC
CMS CMS ENERGY CORPORATION
AVA AVISTA CORPORATION
FTS. FORTIS INC.
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
NI NIHAO MINERAL RESOURCES INT'L
EXC EXCEET GROUP SE
PCG PG&E CORPORATION
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials (currently our favorite areas). Meanwhile, some of our big picture "lines in the sand" are being violated, including the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) tests critical support at $207.50...
OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
IMO. IMPERIAL OIL LIMITED
SU. SUNCOR ENERGY INC.
PXD PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES COMPANY
MRO MARATHON OIL CORPORATION
HES HESS CORPORATION
HAL HALLIBURTON COMPANY
FANG DIAMONDBACK ENERGY INC.
EOG EOG RESOURCES INC.
DVN DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
COG CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION
CNO CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
CLR CONTINENTAL RESOURCES INC.
AR ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
SPX SPIRAX-SARCO ENGINEERING PLC
MUR MURPHY OIL CORPORATION
CLB CORE LABORATORIES NV
WFT.. WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PLC
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
BKR BAKER HUGHES COMPANY CLASS A
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
REEMF RARE ELEMENT RESOURCES
QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST
NOV SERIES 1
APA NOV INC.
OVV APA CORPORATION
IWC OVINTIV INC
QQEW ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
FIRST TRUST NASDAQ-100 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX FUND
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Communications The Russell 2000 (IWM) displays a false breakout and has now fallen back into the horizontal trading range that has plagued it for most of 2021. This false breakout combined with deteriorating breadth has us on watch for a potential breakdown below $208 on IWM and $135 on IWC. As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. On the other hand, we would turn bearish on breakdowns. Upgrading Technology, Downgrad...
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLRE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLC SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
RYH THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
XLB. INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
XLY ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
AUXLY CANNABIS GROUP INC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Neutral Outlook Is Appropriate Market dynamics have deteriorated and we are cautious yet neutral overall. Deteriorating Market Dynamics. Small-caps continue to underperform, growth is outperforming vs. value, cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Industrials, Financials) is underperforming defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care), U.S. (IWV) is outperforming foreign equities (ACWX) as the US dollar strengthens, high yield spreads are widening, the 10-year Treasury yield is below 1.40-1...
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Sell In May And Go Away? The weight of the evidence remains positive and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. We are entering a seasonally weaker period for the S&P 500 ("sell in May and go away") which could lead to some softness, however that alone is no reason to be bearish and we continue to see pullbacks as buying opportunities. S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish and is in an uptrend, though continues to be extended in the short-term as it hovers near potential resista...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Weight Of The Evidence Remains Positive Despite a more mixed and highly rotational market, the weight of the evidence remains positive, and our outlook remains constructive for the weeks and months ahead. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Mid-Caps, Russell 2000. Large-cap (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow) and mid-cap indexes (S&P 600) remain bullish, closing out the past week at new all-time highs. Small-caps are more mixed, as the Russell 2000 (IWM) continues a healthy consolidation of the substantial g...
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
EWCO INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT COMMUNICATION SERVICES ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Defensive Sectors Improving; Small-Caps Weakening We are beginning to get some signals which suggest the market is entering a more mixed environment. These signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, the weight of the evidence remains positive and our outlook remains constructive for the weeks and months ahead. · S&P 500, Russell 2000. The S&P 500 remains ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Remain Overweight Value, Small-Caps; Downgrading Health Care To Underweight Thus far, the market's recent consolidation phase has proven to be a buying opportunity as noted in our 3/1/21 ETF Pathfinder, supported by the reality that market dynamics remained largely positive throughout the pullback. Leadership areas including value (VTV, VBR) and small-caps (IJR) are already breaking to new price highs -- remain overweight and add exposure on pullbacks. · S&P 500. Our 3750-3694 support ...
KIE KIER GROUP PLC
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IJR ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP ETF
VTV VANGUARD VALUE ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
COPX GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF
XLYS SOURCE CONS DISC S&P US SECTOR UCITS ETF
YOLO ADVISORSHARES PURE CANNABIS ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
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