Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - Cost savings continue to lift EBITDA

The Q1 results showed improved mobile service revenue (MSR) growth and a return to growth in International Digital Services (IDS), and group EBITDA beat consensus on cost control. However, due to Elisa’s premium valuation to Nordic peers, we reiterate our HOLD and EUR45 target price.

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €54, +27%) Q1 24: EBITDA growth better than SR gr...

Elisa reported good results, with stable service revenue growth (+3% YoY) but importantly an acceleration in clean EBITDA (to +6% y/y from +4% y/y in Q4). EBITDA growth was better than SR growth for the first time since Q3 2021. This is what the market wanted to see, as concerns have been around operational leverage;

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - First quarter for new CEO

Q2–Q4 2023 revenues were below consensus, due to weakness in International Digital Services (IDS). Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:30 CET on 19 April), we are in line with consensus on sales and EBITDA. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR45 target price.

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A director at Elisa Oyj bought 3,000 shares at 41.910EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - IDS still below our forecast

For the third consecutive quarter, International Digital Services’s revenue growth disappointed, resulting in a miss versus consensus on revenue. We believe the trends in IDS need to turn before investors could turn more positive. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR45 target price.

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €54, +26%) Q4 23: B2B performance remains a conce...

Elisa results continue to be characterised by a good B2C performance but a poor B2B performance (Revenue -1.4% y/y, EBITDA -3.4% y/y) . The bull case for the B2B division is that is that there are upfront losses and investments that will reverse, and when that happens, EBITDA growth will become positive.

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - Awaiting improving trends

Elisa missed our expectations and consensus in Q2 and Q3 2023. Ahead of the Q4 report (due at 07:30 CET on 26 January), we are marginally below consensus on sales and EBITDA. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR45 target price.

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - IDS and MSR disappoint in Q3

The Q3 results missed our forecasts, as IDS customers are delaying projects and MSR growth slowed QOQ, particularly in Estonia. This weaker growth versus key peers Telia/Tele2 limits the potential upside in our view; we reiterate our HOLD and have lowered our target price to EUR45 (47.5).

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €53, +24%) Q3 23: Miss vs consensus, B2B EBITDA ...

Growth has slowed slightly, and numbers have missed slightly. For a stock that trades at a 32% premium to the sector on EV/FCF that is not a good look. The miss and slowdown is small, but that is not the point, especially when there are also concerns around B2B EBITDA and International Digital Service growth outlook (growth outlook downgraded this quarter).

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR47.50) - Higher interest rates taking effect

We remain cautious on Elisa due to the low FCF yield coupled with a rising interest rate market environment, which seems to have hampered the share price. We reiterate our HOLD and have lowered our target price to EUR47.5 (50). However, we see a positive risk/reward on Q3e, as we are c3% above consensus on EBITDA, likely driven by solid performance for International digital services (IDS).

Northern Lights

Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR50.00) - IDS recovery expected in H2

Due to timing issues, IDS reported -5% growth YOY. With guidance of strong double-digit growth for 2023, a solid H2 is expected for this business. Elisa also reported a re-acceleration of the MSR growth. With a strong H2e in the offing, we have upgraded to HOLD (SELL) and raised our target price to EUR50 (46).

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €56, +17%) Q2 23: In-line vs consensus, but B2B E...

MSR growth remains good at Elisa, but this quarter, fixed revenue has slowed materially, and Digital Services has actually reported negative revenue y/y. B2B EBITDA is also negative y/y. Group EBITDA is in-line (-0.3% light), but within that, B2C is +2.4% ahead and B2B is -7.5% light.

Elisa (Sell, TP: EUR46.00) - Minor revisions on neutral report

On Q1 headline numbers, Elisa beat consensus by 1% on sales and 2% on EBITDA. However, adjusting for EUR3m in other income from the sale of real estate, EBITDA was in line with consensus. We have raised our 2023–2024e sales 1–2%, but our EBITDA revisions are minor. We reiterate our SELL and EUR46 target price.

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €56, +2%) Q1 23: In-line vs consensus, but B2C E...

The concern at Elisa for the past year or so has been operational leverage (the lag between revenue growth and EBITDA growth). This quarter is no different.

Northern Lights

Elisa (Sell, TP: EUR46.00) - Lower energy prices support EBITDA growth...

Ahead of the Q1 results, due at 07:30 CET on 20 April, we are only 1% above consensus on sales and EBITDA, and note that EBITDA growth is slowing. We reiterate our SELL and EUR46 target price as we believe the stock offers a relatively low FCF yield versus risk-free assets such as Finnish government bonds.

Northern Lights

Elisa (Sell, TP: EUR46.00) - Soft EBITDA growth in Q1e

Q4 sales and EBITDA were in line with consensus, but MSR growth was soft. Also, due to the energy cost impact before the new wind PPA agreement is in place in Q2, H1 EBITDA growth could be soft. We have made limited estimate revisions, and we reiterate our SELL and EUR46 target price.

Elisa (Neutral, TP: €57, +10%) Q4 22: Lower growth, but in-line resul...

The concern at Elisa for the past year or so has been operational leverage (the lag between revenue growth and EBITDA growth). This quarter, the operational leverage is better, but growth is much slower in both revenue and EBITDA, which does slightly beg the question: does Elisa have to spend on OpEx to generate revenue growth?