Sur 2026, nous estimons que la dynamique sera plus favorable aux majors européennes tant sur le RASK (croissance plus modérée des capacités et meilleure orientation du réseau long-courrier en particulier transatlantique), que sur le CASK hors carburant aidé par des effets de base positifs. Nous relevons notre opinion à Surperformance sur Air France-KLM et Lufthansa et dégradons Ryanair en Neutre et Wizz Air en Sous-performance.
For 2026, we think that the trend will be more favourable to the European legacy carriers in terms of both RASK (more modest growth in capacity and a more positive trend on the long-haul network, particularly transatlantic) and CASK excluding fuel, aided by positive base effects. We have upgraded Air France-KLM and Lufthansa to Outperform, downgraded Ryanair to Neutral and Wizz Air to Underperform. A more favourable trend expected in 2026 for legacy carriers
Summary We leave our TP at 20.0 GBP and reiterate our Buy recommendation, reflecting the ongoing restructuring story. Following the fiscal Q3/26 conference call held on 29 January, we repeatedly concluded that the fruitful strategic overhaul is under way. The management is building back confidence, so that’s good news for value investors. The problem is that they have to manage high-capacity growth (+24% seats and +30% ASK) during fiscal Q2/27. Key question remains how the market will be able ...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: still opportunities, if the growth continues (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • cyber_Folks: 4Q25E results preview – 18% yoy organic adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 18 March) • Shoper: 4Q25E results preview – 11% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 18 March) • Vercom: 4Q25E results preview – 23% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 18 March) • Ten Square Games: 4Q25E preview – adjusted EBITDA -7% qoq on higher U...
We keep our positive bias on the Polish banks, although the upside is melting away, with the continuous positive share price performance. The upside left for our median 12M PTs lands at 17%+, just enough to keep our marginally positive stance on the sector. The WIG Banks index has returned c.45%+ in the LTM, mostly a function of a multiples expansion, as the 2025E median EPS change was almost zero in the LTM and the 2026E EPS saw a median cut of 10% in the LTM, driven mostly by the change in the...
EME Equity Market – January 2026 All regions in the green in January, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 11.1% mom in EUR terms and 13.2% mom in USD terms in January. The Turkish ISE was the top performer (+20.8% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX (+17.5% mom); the Romanian BET (+11.1% mom); the Greek ASE (+9.2% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+5.9% mom); and the Czech PX (+2.4% mom; all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: 3Q FY26 – broadly in line NEUTRAL • CCC: profit warning – 4Q25 EBITDA down 50-60% yoy, FY25E guidance missed by 15% NEGATIVE • Allegro/InPost: Allegro raises delivery fees by c.4%, effective as of 2 March NEUTRAL • Budimex: extension of strategic options review process for FBSerwis until April 2026 NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: 4Q25E preview (due on 4 February) • OMV Petrom: 4Q25E results preview (due on 4 February) NEUTRAL • Titan: EUR 350m bond at 3.5% to fund M&A and...
HEADLINES: • Titan: three deals cemented, more to come (stays BUY) • Eurocash: wins court battle with antimonopoly watchdog POSITIVE • PKO BP: 4Q25E preview (due on 12 March) • Mo-BRUK: 4Q25E – 21% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 23 April) • Hungary macro: MNB on hold • Hidroelectrica: shareholders’ approval for key strategic projects • DIGI Communications: hires Linklaters and Uría Menéndez for legal work in its Spanish IPO NEUTRAL • EME Strategy: MSCI – consultations under way to reclassify...
HEADLINES: • VIGO Photonics: 4Q25 sales up 13.9% yoy, to PLN 27.4m POSITIVE • DataWalk: obtains another patent in the US POSITIVE • PKO BP: PLN 990m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 4Q25 NEUTRAL • CCC: EGM approves 2m shares buyback at a price of up to PLN 200/share NEUTRAL • CEZ: in talks to sell stake in Slovak nuclear design company NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: 17% yoy ASK growth in 2025 NEUTRAL • Kazakhstan macro: monthly GDP increases further in December • Arabian Drilling: announces three ...
In an interview with Bloomberg, Wizz Air’s CEO, Jozsef Varadi, has suggested that the airline may grow faster than the latest guidance implied, driven by the unparking of grounded aircraft and new aircraft deliveries. Bloomberg has reported that the CEO was suggesting that the airline may grow capacity by around 20% in FY26E yoy. We believe this is a misinterpretation of what the CEO meant, as it would require an unrealistic acceleration of capacity growth in the January-March period. We have re...
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: rates unchanged, and some positive news • Murapol: sells 767 and hands over 1,286 units in 4Q25 NEGATIVE • Pepco Group: 1Q26 revenues growth eases to 4% yoy; FY26E guidance maintained NEGATIVE • XTB S.A.: over 250k new clients in 4Q25 in sight NEUTRAL • PZU/Bank Pekao: merger uncertain even by end-4Q27E, according to the Minister of State Assets NEUTRAL • CTP: prices EUR 500m 4Y bond at 3.4%; leases space in Amsterdam to Crisp POSITIVE • Wizz Air: may grow capacity by ...
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