We favor Turkcell due to its strong revenue growth, primarily driven by price adjustments, mitigated impact of cost pressures and decline in financial leverage. We incorporate IAS29 effect to financials, revise up target price to TL110 per share (previously TL96) and maintain BUY rating. At 2024E EV/EBITDA ratio of 2.8x, Turkcell is trading at a 38% discount to its peers. 4Q23 Review, without the effect of inflationary accounting: Turkcell witnessed an 83% y/y revenue growth, thanks to ARPU gro...
Supply has re-emerged as a key theme to start the year, while sentiment has been mixed amid renewed volatility in core rates. In this environment, we would prefer to be positioned in higher-quality names that have either issued already or shown spread weakness in anticipation of supply.
Turkcell has demonstrated strong growth in both revenue and earnings, primarily driven by price adjustments and the mitigated impact of cost pressures. We are adjusting estimates upwards, owing to the strong 1H23 performance and the management’s guidance upgrade. Consequently, we are revising our target price to TL78.6 from the previous TL55, while maintaining our BUY rating. Turkcell trades at 7x 2024E P/E, with a 36% discount to international peers. Strong 2Q results: Turkcell announced TL3,1...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Georgia: 2Q23 - strong quarter with more capital returns POSITIVE • Photon Energy: cuts FY23E EBITDA guidance by 66%, to EUR 10m NEGATIVE • Dino: 2Q23 EBITDA misses both our and the market's expectations by 3-5% NEUTRAL • Turkcell: 2Q23 results - FY23E guidance upgraded, dividends still uncertain NEUTRAL • BIM: 2Q23 results - in line operationally, but bottom line beat expectations NEUTRAL • Ulker: 2Q23 results - bottom line as expected NEUTRAL • Addiko Bank: solid 2Q23, wit...
Including Turkcell to our model portfolio, while removing Anadolu Efes: We are including Turkcell to our model portfolio, while excluding Anadolu Efes. Turkcell was one of the worst performers in the BIST-30 index in 2022. The lagged effect of price adjustments on ARPU growth, its sensitivity to TL volatility due to FX-based capex and financial debt and the lack of major catalysts were the main drivers of the company’s underperformance. However, the company has increased the frequency of price a...
The Turkish telecom sector has trailed our non-bank coverage in terms of earnings growth momentum during 2022. On a risk-return basis, we think the worst is behind the sector and our current estimates factor in the effect of high inflationary trends. Additionally, the price increases executed in 2H22 should improve the growth outlook in 2023. Therefore, we upgrade our rating for Turkcell to a BUY, with a TL55 per share TP (TL23.5 previously). We favour Turkcell due to its prudent cost management...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank: solid 3Q22, main positive is upbeat initial 2023E guidance, with 13-15% ROTE guidance POSITIVE • Alior Bank: 3Q22 results - net loss, but peak profitability on an underlying basis NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: solid 3Q22, on track for delivery of 2022E expectations NEUTRAL • Turkcell: 3Q22 results - strong NI beat, driven by FX and derivatives POSITIVE • Migros: 3Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • BRD-GSG: 3Q22 - another solid quarter • MOL: 3Q22 results - better than exp...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
HEADLINES: • Turkey macro: CBT delivers a surprising rate cut • Dogus Otomotiv: strong beat in the 2Q22 results POSITIVE • Turkcell: 2Q22 results - low-quality net income beat, minor guidance upgrade POSITIVE • Czech macro: new measures under consideration to fight inflation • Dino: 2Q22 lfl of 30% but 30bp yoy EBITDA margin erosion POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 2Q22 earnings call NEUTRAL • Transgaz: takeaways from the 2Q22 earnings call NEUTRAL • Short news (ZB, WPL, BFT)
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Russia can live (but not thrive) without EU gas payments • Erste Bank: strong start to 2022 with the 1Q22 delivery POSITIVE • Kruk: publishes detailed 1Q22 - solid trends, but supported by positive revaluations, as suspected NEUTRAL • Tekfen Holding: 1Q22 results - another major miss NEGATIVE • Turkcell: 1Q22 results in line, except a 10% NI miss; FY22E guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Enerjisa Enerji: 1Q22 results review - mixed, but FY guidance revised up NEUTRA...
EME Equity Market – March 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks mostly in the black, despite the MSCI EM Europe Index losing half of its value. Following its decline in February, the MSCI EM Europe Index lost in March as well, declining by 49.5% in EUR terms and 50.1% in USD terms. Russia’s MOEX Index added 13.2% in EUR terms and 9.4% RUB terms (we note that Russian companies’ GDRs are still suspended for trading). The Turkish ISE30 Index added 8.2% in EUR terms and 13.3% in local curren...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just slightly lowered the general evaluation of TURKCELL ILETISIM (TR), active in the Mobile Telecommunications industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title confirms its rating of 4 out of 4 stars while its market behaviour remains unchanged and can be qualified as defensive. However, a marginally less favourable environment forces theScreener to downgrade slightly the title, which now shows an overall rating of Slightly Positive. As of ...
EME Equity Market – February 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities bled in February due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The MSCI EME Europe Index declined by 38.7% in EUR terms and 38.8% in USD terms. Russian stocks, represented by the MOEX Index, lost the most in February, declining by 34.6% in EUR terms and 30.0% in RUB terms. The Hungarian BUX Index lost 21.8% in EUR terms and 18.2% in HUF terms; while the Polish WIG20 Index declined by 11.7% in EUR and 9.5% in PLN. In Prague, the...
HEADLINES: • Turkcell: 4Q21 results - low-quality NI beat, ambitious FY22E guidance POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 4Q21 results - strong beat, bullish FY22E guidance POSITIVE • MOL: 4Q21 results - EBITDA in line with expectations • SOK Marketler Ticaret: 4Q21 broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Kazakhstan macro: political revamp proceeding, but country strategy appears unchanged • Russian banks: rate hike damage assessment • Turkey macro: CBT on hold, as expected • Novatek: 4Q21 conferenc...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: can pay out up to 100% of 2021E net profit as dividends • PZU: insurance sector can pay up to 100% of 2020 net profit and up to 50% of 2021E net profit NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: all-time high sales (again) - PLN 1.2bn (+39% yoy) in November POSITIVE • Romania macro: finance minister says 2022 budget will not include new taxes • Electrica: shareholders reject acquisition of 29MW PV plant NEGATIVE • Richter: licenses denosumab biosimilar to Hikma for US market POSITIVE WO...
EME Equity Market – November 2021 Market performance – most markets down, with Czech PX Index (+3.0%) the exception. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 8.9% in EUR terms and 10.7% in USD in November. Prague’s PX Index added 3.0% in EUR terms and 2.3% in local currency, followed by the Romanian BET Index, which declined 3.2% in both EUR and RON terms. Greece’s ASE Index declined by 3.4% in EUR terms, while Hungary’s BUX Index declined by 6.2% in EUR and 5.0% in HUF. The Russian MOEX Index declined 8.6...
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