reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? The S&P 500, Russell 2000 (IWM), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) continue to have trouble breaking above their respective 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280. With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout. We continue to recomm...
RNR RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD.
TLYS TILLYS
TJX TJX COMPANIES INC
RGA REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA INCORPORATED
EVEREST RE GROUP LTD.
GPS GAP INC.
ESGR ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED
BKE BUCKLE INC.
ANF ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO. CLASS A
AEO AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC.
ACGL ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD.
ROST ROSINTER RESTAURANTS HOLDING ORD SHS
DXYN DIXIE GROUP
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST
SERIES 1
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Downgrading Technology To Underweight Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends. Sector Relative Strength Rankings. We are downgrading Technology to underweight; RS is trading within multi-month downtrends and is breaking below major support on the cap- and equal-weighted Sectors (XLK, RYT) -- reduce ex...
GBX GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC.
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
PEG PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
NI NISOURCE INC
MOS MOSAIC COMPANY
FE FIRSTENERGY CORP.
ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC.
DY DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC.
D DOMINION ENERGY INC
CF CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC.
AVD AMERICAN VANGUARD
FLR FLUOR CORPORATION
TRN TERNA S.P.A.
GATX GATX CORPORATION
WAB WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION
GNE GENIE ENERGY LTD. CL B
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
ICL ICL GROUP LTD.
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
TNX TANZANIAN GOLD
IPI INTREPID POTASH
SOM SOMEC
IWC ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
UAN ARCADIAN PARTNERS LP
OOO BETASHARES CRUDE OIL INDEX ETF - CURRENCY HEDGED SYNTHETIC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Risk-Off Signals Abating In our last Compass (Dec. 22), we pointed out that despite conflicting signals (some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well), our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495. These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate. This is an encouragin...
MOS MOSAIC COMPANY
JLL JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORATED
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC.
CF CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC.
APTS PREFERRED APARTMENT COMMUNITIES INC.
AMT AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION
JOE ST. JOE COMPANY
BAM.A BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. CLASS A
TRO. TARANIS RESOURCES INC.
TECK.B TECK RESOURCES LIMITED CLASS B
MMI MARCUS & MILLICHAP INC.
HHC HOWARD HUGHES CORPORATION
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
SBAC SBA COMMUNICATIONS CORP. CLASS A
INVH INVITATION HOMES INC.
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
ICL ICL GROUP LTD.
IPI INTREPID POTASH
JETS US GBL JETS ETF
IWC ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
UAN ARCADIAN PARTNERS LP
XLY AUXLY CANNABIS GROUP INC
CTO CTO REALTY GROWTH INC
CCI CALAMOS GLOBAL CONVERTIBLE & DYNAMIC INCOME TRUST
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Communications The Russell 2000 (IWM) displays a false breakout and has now fallen back into the horizontal trading range that has plagued it for most of 2021. This false breakout combined with deteriorating breadth has us on watch for a potential breakdown below $208 on IWM and $135 on IWC. As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. On the other hand, we would turn bearish on breakdowns. Upgrading Technology, Downgrad...
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLRE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLC SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
RYH THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
XLB. INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
XLY ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
AUXLY CANNABIS GROUP INC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Financials, Downgrading Communications Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Upgrading Financials, Downgrading Communication Services. We are upgrading Financials to overweight with the Sector ETFs (XLF, RYF) and banks (KRE, KBE) breaking out to new highs -- add exposure. Additionally,...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Energy, Downgrading Utilities & Staples Market dynamics continue to improve, however we have not yet seen enough to adjust our outlook which remains neutral yet constructive overall. Upgrading Energy, Downgrading Utilities & Staples. We are upgrading Energy to overweight with WTI crude oil breaking above $77, and the XOP and RYE breaking above $100 and $47.50, respectively -- add exposure on pullbacks. Additionally, we are downgrading Utilities and Staples to underweight as RS for ea...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Neutral Outlook Is Appropriate Market dynamics have deteriorated and we are cautious yet neutral overall. Deteriorating Market Dynamics. Small-caps continue to underperform, growth is outperforming vs. value, cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Industrials, Financials) is underperforming defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care), U.S. (IWV) is outperforming foreign equities (ACWX) as the US dollar strengthens, high yield spreads are widening, the 10-year Treasury yield is below 1.40-1...
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Weight Of The Evidence Remains Positive Despite a more mixed and highly rotational market, the weight of the evidence remains positive, and our outlook remains constructive for the weeks and months ahead. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Mid-Caps, Russell 2000. Large-cap (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow) and mid-cap indexes (S&P 600) remain bullish, closing out the past week at new all-time highs. Small-caps are more mixed, as the Russell 2000 (IWM) continues a healthy consolidation of the substantial g...
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
EWCO INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT COMMUNICATION SERVICES ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Defensive Sectors Improving; Small-Caps Weakening We are beginning to get some signals which suggest the market is entering a more mixed environment. These signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, the weight of the evidence remains positive and our outlook remains constructive for the weeks and months ahead. · S&P 500, Russell 2000. The S&P 500 remains ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Remain Overweight Value, Small-Caps; Downgrading Health Care To Underweight Thus far, the market's recent consolidation phase has proven to be a buying opportunity as noted in our 3/1/21 ETF Pathfinder, supported by the reality that market dynamics remained largely positive throughout the pullback. Leadership areas including value (VTV, VBR) and small-caps (IJR) are already breaking to new price highs -- remain overweight and add exposure on pullbacks. · S&P 500. Our 3750-3694 support ...
KIE KIER GROUP PLC
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IJR ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP ETF
VTV VANGUARD VALUE ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
COPX GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF
XLYS SOURCE CONS DISC S&P US SECTOR UCITS ETF
YOLO ADVISORSHARES PURE CANNABIS ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Energy & Downgrading Industrials The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Continue to buy dips. · Market Dynamics Remain Bullish. Small-caps (IWM) are hitting new price highs and are outperforming relative to large-caps (SPY). The US dollar (DXY) is below 92. Defensive Sectors (Staples, Utilities, Real Estate) are underperforming. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 0.97%-1.00% support. EM eq...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Market Dynamics Improving; Downgrading Utilities Market dynamics and price action across the major indexes and all Sectors has been positive since early November -- and they have only improved recently. As a result, we remain bullish and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. Below we highlight recent improvements. · Market Dynamics Improving: Commodities, 10-Year Treasury Yield. Broad commodities (DJP) are breaking above the 12.5-year downtrend, likely starting a new secular bull mar...
IBUY AMPLIFY ONLN ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
XSW SPDR S&P SOFTWARE AND SERVICES FUND
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
XSD SPDR S&P SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Communication Services We remain bullish following breakouts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 from their bullish falling wedge patterns. The Russell 2000 (IWM) has also broken above key $160 resistance. Additionally, market dynamics remain largely positive and are conducive to an ongoing bull market. Buy dips. · Key Levels. Short-term support levels to watch include $342.50 & $331 on the S&P 500 (SPY) and $283 & $273 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ); as long as the...
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500, Nasdaq Testing Support; Downgrading Energy Following uptrend violations in the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 we made a tactical shift to a neutral outlook, something that continues to be supported by the weight of the evidence. Below we highlight several metrics we are watching; until these metrics take a turn for the worse, our neutral outlook is appropriate. · S&P 500, Nasdaq 100. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are above key support levels. On the S&P 500 we are watching...
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
EFNL ISHARES MSCI FINLAND CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
EWJ ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
EWGS ISHARES MSCI GERMANY SMALL-CAP
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
A2AKZX ISHARES MSCI SAUDI ARABIA CAPPED ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Prior Concerns Becoming Tailwinds Several concerns that we have previously noted as being risks to our bullish outlook are now becoming tailwinds. This includes interest rates which are now moving higher and price and RS improvements for cyclical value Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. · 10-Year Treasury Yield Reversing Higher. Earlier this week the 10-year Treasury yield made a bullish reversal, and we now see the short...
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
EFNL ISHARES MSCI FINLAND CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
XRT SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
EWGS ISHARES MSCI GERMANY SMALL-CAP
COPX GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Small-Caps, EM RS, Commodities Bullishly Inflecting We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Not only is there an absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, but several are now breaking out above resistance. Additionally, EM RS is bullishly inflecting, commodities are bottoming, and high yield spreads are narrowing. · Select Indexes & Sectors Breaking Out. The S&P 500 is testing 3238 resistance, whil...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
DJP BARCLAYS IPATH DJ UBS COMMODITY TR ETN
XHE SPDR S&P HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT ETF
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Bullish Outlook Warranted; Offensive Sector Shift In our 5/18/20 ETF Pathfinder we saw the S&P 500 as consolidating and, until there was a resolution below support or above resistance, our outlook was neutral. By the end of that week, the S&P 500 had sustained a break above 2,935-2,955 resistance which set the stage for a new leg higher. Despite being short-term extended, the combination of rotations into cyclical Sectors, bottoming interest rates, narrowing high yield spreads, small- and mid-c...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Healthy Sector Rotations Continue Note: We have resumed production of the Russell 1000 & 2000 grids, which you can find at the end of the attached Compass PDF. The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us th...
XPO XPO LOGISTICS INC.
PRTS US AUTO PARTS NETWORK INC
MNRO MONRO INC
LKQ LKQ CORPORATION
GPC GENUINE PARTS COMPANY
FDX FEDEX CORPORATION
EXPD EXPEDITORS INTERNATIONAL OF WASHINGTON INC.
BECN BEACON ROOFING SUPPLY INC.
AZO AUTOZONE INC.
AAP ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC.
PATK PATRICK INDUSTRIES INC.
MAS MASCO CORPORATION
DOOR MASONITE INTERNATIONAL CORP.
AMWD AMERICAN WOODMARK CORPORATION
BLD TOPBUILD CORP.
BLDR BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC.
GMS GMS INC.
IBP INSTALLED BUILDING PRODUCTS INC.
LSTR LANDSTAR SYSTEM INC.
ODFL OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE INC.
SSD SIMPSON MANUFACTURING CO. INC.
TREX TREX COMPANY INC.
CHRW C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE INC.
AFI ARMSTRONG FLOORING INC.
JBHT J.B. HUNT TRANSPORT SERVICES INC.
ORLY O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC.
OSB. NORBORD INC.
ZTO ZTO EXPRESS (CAYMAN) INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
JELD JELD-WEN HOLDING INC.
KNX KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
UFPI UFP INDUSTRIES
INC.
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