GREATER CHINA Results CSPC Innovation Pharmaceutical Co (300765 CH/BUY/Rmb31.13/Target: Rmb37.00) 9M24: Results in line; smooth progress in R&D and CSPC Baike acquisition. Dian Diagnostics (300244 CH/HOLD/Rmb12.75/Target: Rmb13.50) 9M24: Results miss; targeting 2024 regular ICL revenue growth of 10% yoy. Downgrade to HOLD. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$10.12/Target: US$14.00) 2QFY25: Strong earnings beat; resilient growth visibility in AI learning devices. ...
What’s new: New Oriental’s reported 1QFY25 top-line results that were largely in-line with consensus. Margin could see downward pressure in 2QFY25 partly due to lower seasonality in the education business coupled with continued investments in the tourism segment. We lower our PT from USD70 to USD65 due to lowered outlook. Our revised PT of USD65 implies a 20.0x FY25E P/E. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
EDU’s 1QFY25 top-line slightly missed expectations. Revenue grew 30% yoy to US$1,435m, slightly missing consensus estimate and previous guidance of 31-34% yoy. Non-GAAP net profit rose 40% yoy to US$265m, above our and consensus estimates, while net margin inched up 1ppt yoy to 18% for 1QFY25. EDU expects 2QFY25 revenue (excluding East Buy) to rise 25-28% yoy to US$851.4m-871.8m, 1-2ppt below expectations. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of US$85.00 (HK$66.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$314.80/Target: HK$364.00) HKEX reported a 6.5% yoy earnings growth in 3Q24 after a sharp increase in headline ADT following the rollout of stimulus packages by China in late-September. Although market velocity has normalised, ADT remains elevated, and NII could be more resilient going forward, suggesting more upside for earnings. The risk-to-reward ratio is more balanced now after the recent correction as HKEX is trading ...
GREATER CHINA Results Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$314.80/Target: HK$364.00) 3Q24: Risk-and-reward is more balanced. Upgrade to BUY. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/HOLD/Rmb24.42/Target: Rmb22.70) 3Q24: Net profit misses, but visibility of recovery improving. Downgrade to HOLD. New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$62.15/Target: US$85.00) 1QFY25: In line; moderated growth outlook in 2QFY25 on low seasonality. Update Xtep International Holdings (...
1QFY25 results beat expectations. Revenue surged 50% yoy to US$414m for 1QFY25, 5% above the street’s estimates. Non-GAAP net profit beat expectations and came in at US$30m vs consensus estimate of a US$6m net loss. TAL guided 2QFY25 revenue growth of 44-47% yoy and reach US$593m-605m, 5% above consensus estimate. However, non-GAAP operating profit is guided to decline yoy due to new product development, below expectations. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of US$12.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls Chinese equities fell more than 2% in July, losing initial gains after the Third Plenum did not lead to new stimulus policies. For August, 1H24 results would be the catalyst for most stocks, and we expect earnings of EV names to be under pressure given the intense price competition. We add Cosco Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and SELL on WuXi Bio and XPeng to diversify away our market risk exposur...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls We expect stimulus to be announced in August and add COSCO Shipping Ports, Haier Smart Home, and KE Holdings to our BUY list and add SELL call on WuXi Bio, and XPeng. Small-Mid Cap Monthly Reiterate BUY on Crystal amid share price pullback; eyes on interim dividend surprise. Sector Automobile ...
What’s new: New Oriental’s reported 4QFY24 top-line results that were largely in-line with consensus and our expectations. Margins were below expectations partly due to continued expansion of learning centers and one-time impact related to East Buy. We lower our PT from USD80 to USD70 due to lowered outlook. Our revised PT of USD70 implies a 20.0x FY25E P/E. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
New Oriental’s 4QFY24 earnings missed expectations. Revenue grew 32% yoy to US$1,136.7m, in line with the street’s estimate. Non-GAAP net profit declined 41% yoy to US$37m, below our and consensus expectations, while net margin dipped 4ppt yoy to 3% for 4QFY24. EDU forecasts 1QFY25 revenue (excluding East Buy) rising 31-34% yoy to US$1,254.7m-1,283.5m, 2% below consensus estimate. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of US$90.00 (HK$70.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI July manufacturing PMI fell for the third consecutive month to 49.4% (-0.1ppt mom), weighed by weak output and new orders. Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2% (-0.3ppt mom), marking the weakest reading in the past eight months. This was mainly driven by a 1.1ppt decline in construction PMI. Overall, the report points to further slowing of economic activities, and the improved number of activities for large-sized enterprises has yet to trickle down to the mid- and...
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Stuck in a soft patch. Results New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$69.25/Target: US$90.00) 4QFY24: Earnings miss; impact from East Buy to carve out after 1QFY25. Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK/HOLD/HK$3.71/Target: HK$4.00) 1H24: In line; murky demand outlook ahead. Downgrade to HOLD. Update Prudential (2378 HK/BUY/HK$69.90/Target: HK$12...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
The HSI and MSCI China fell 2.0% and 2.8% mom respectively in June, as investors locked in profits amid weaker-than-expected macro data. A continuation of the rally that began in January hinges on the policy announcements from the Third Plenum. Looking ahead, we remain sellers of BYD due to intense competition in the EV segment and are adding ASMPT, Innovent, Poly Property Services, TAL Education and Trip.com.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Call: Adding ASMPT, Innovent, Poly Property Services, TAL Education and Trip.com to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Jun 24 And 2Q24: Our picks are BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Opting For More Adventurous Choices: Our Alpha Picks beat the KLCI again. Jul 24 picks: BURSA, Ekovest, Gamuda, Lagenda, Mah Sing, MYEG, Pekat...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Call Adding ASMPT, Innovent, Poly Property Services, TAL Education and Trip.com to our BUY list; hedging with SELL call on BYD. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Crystal International (2232 HK/BUY/HK$3.95/Target: HK$4.76) 1Q24 preview: Expecting interim DPS to more than double. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Jun 24 And 2Q24 Our picks are BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, BSDE, TLKM, ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSM...
This year marks the third year after the “Double Reduction” policy was introduced. During these three years, EDU and TAL adopted a multi-faceted approach to foster healthy long-term growth. The key growth catalysts include: a) normalised regulatory tone, b) AIGC integration and smart devices, and c) diversified revenue stream with overseas exposure. We opine that the near-term drag on margins is mainly due to investment to foster sustainable growth. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector.
We note that demand for after-school education remains resilient despite a weaker macro outlook as peer competition in China remains intense. To defend against potential uncertainties, EDU is cultivating a competitive moat by diversifying its revenue streams and investing in East Buy. Management guided 4QFY24 revenue growth of 28-31% yoy to US$1,101.5m-1,127.3m while overall net margin should expand 2-3ppt yoy in FY24. Upgrade to BUY with a higher target price of US$105.00 (HK$82.00).
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking The impact of the recent property rescue package is mixed. Asset quality concern is expected to ease but the lower mortgage rate could continue to weigh on banks’ NIM. Thus, further policy supports from the PBOC, such as RRR and deposit rate cuts, are much needed. Meanwhile, the potential removal of dividend tax for Southbound investors could boost the sector’s valuation further given the attractive A/H spreads and high dividend yields. Upgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. To...
GREATER CHINA Sector Banking: Implications of property rescue package and dividend tax exemption. Update New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$81.38/Target: US$105.00): Diverse revenue streams; margin improvement in sight. INDONESIA Update Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat (MIKA IJ/HOLD/Rp3,100/Target: Rp3,300): Earnings upgrade, but downgrade to HOLD on expensive valuation, with a higher target price. MALAYSIA Results Genting Malaysia (GENM MK/BUY/RM2.80/Target: RM3.50): 1Q24: Soli...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.