Pullback Underway A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. These two indexes are already 4-5% off their highs, so further downside may be limited. Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year -- particularly after the historic 5-month rallies -- so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market. ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, ...
The Pullback Finally Begins; Testing 2-Month Supports We have discussed for months that we will need to see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious. While this has not happened yet (only two consecutive days so far, yesterday and Friday), it does appear to be going in that direction as the U.S. dollar (DXY) climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking abo...
Market Dynamics Shifting? We have discussed for months that we will need to see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious. While this has not happened yet, it does appear to be going in that direction as the U.S. dollar (DXY) climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, impo...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging & Frontier Markets The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days -- and even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). The Fed's next move is almost guaranteed to be a cut (though when it happens is up for debate). And ...
Int'l Equity Strategy Throughout 2024 we have discussed the theme of classic bull market behavior as evidenced by an ever-increasing number of global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, Frontier, ACWI, and MSCI EAFE indexes (all in local currency), and also Japan, Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, Ireland, UK, South Korea, and Norway. Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; t...
More Long-Term Breakouts; Bullish Outlook Intact We remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days. There is nothing that says this can't continue. With that said, once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs on the S&P 500 and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that), with next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $42...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Downgrading Real Estate to Underweight Our bullish outlook we initiated on November 7, 2023 remains intact; this intermediate-to-long-term outlook is likely to stay in place as long as 4800 support holds on the S&P 500 (implying 7-10% downside) and market dynamics remain healthy. To be clear, we are not calling for a pullback to 4800; we view it as a worst-case scenario for the S&P 500, and we simply want to be prepared for anything. Shorter-term, we remain bullish on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Upgrading Materials to Market Weight We have discussed for weeks that we will need to see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs for 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious. This still has not happened, meaning the short-term trend remains bullish. Closes below their 20-day MAs have been extremely rare since the October 2023 bottom, with buyers stepping-in immediately. Still, we need to be prepared. If we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on the S&P 500 an...
STRATEGY Large-cap indexes (S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs. Mid-caps (S&P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) started another leg higher in February, following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (Russell 2000) are unsurprisingly following in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps, and are the latest to break out from their 2.5-month consolidations/high bases. The number of ris...
Gold Breaking Out Above 3.5-Year Resistance as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) and Treasury Yields Roll Over The number of risk-on signals continues to grow, while risk-off signals remain virtually non-existent. This is a hallmark of bull markets; we will be sure to point it out when this dynamic starts to change. In the meantime, we want to continue riding this bull market higher, and our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact. Gold and Silver Breaking Out as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) a...
U.S. Dollar (DXY), 10-Yr Treasury Yield Rolling Over Large-caps (SPY, QQQ, DIA) remain bullish, mid-caps (IJH) are starting to outperform, and small-caps (IWM, IJR) are finally breaking out from major 2-year bases. Market generated information continues to tell us that a resurgence on the inflation front is unlikely; the 10-year Treasury yield has not been able to break above major 4.35% resistance and appears to be rolling over, while mid-caps are starting to outperform (and potentially small-...
n this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Bullish Outlook Intact; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Rolling Over We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. U.S. Dollar (DXY); 10-Year Treasury Yield. We continue to get more evidence that suggests the U.S. dollar (DXY) is rolling over; last week we discussed the failed breakout a...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.