Akzo Nobel Model update after 3Q results and 2023 EBITDA target suspension
We lowered our adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2022 and 2023 by respectively 6% and 2% after the cautious tone of management on the 4Q22 outlook as well as the suspension of the € 2bn adjusted EBITDA ambition for 2023, which in itself was no real surprise with our and consensus forecasts prior to the 3Q results release already respectively 20% and 23% below that target. Despite the tougher short term momentum, we still appreciate Akzo for its leadership positions in the global paints & coatings industry, which is characterized by a fairly low capital intensity and consolidation potential. We consider valuation to be attractive and maintain our Accumulate rating and € 90 target price.Akzo Nobel N.V. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the production and marketing of paints, coatings and specialty chemicals. Co. has three segments: Decorative Paints, which supplies products for the professional and do-it-yourself markets, including paints, lacquers and varnishes, as well as products for surface preparation; Performance Coatings, which is divided into the following businesses: Automotive and Aerospace Coatings, Industrial Coatings, Marine and Protective Coatings, and Powder Coatings; and Specialty Chemicals, which are used in products such as ice cream, soups, disinfectants, plastics, soaps, detergents, cosmetics, paper and asphalt.
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