Novo Nordisk - Amycretin Data to Drive Re-Rating (BUY, TP DKK 880 [800])
After the disappointing CagriSema data, Novo shares de-rated in large part due to growing concerns about the sema patent expiry & ability to sustain growth beyond 2031. Whilst we did not share these concerns & are not worried about declines post the sema LOE for a multitude of reasons, we are aware that we are in the minority. However, with the amycretin data showing best-in class weight loss, Novo’s ability to compete with LLY, switch patients from Wegovy & deliver growth beyond 2031 is now much more likely. In our obesity model we now have $36bn 2030 sales for the Novo franchise, amycretin peak at ~$20bn & crucially, by 2031, Wegovy only accounts for ~47% of Novo’s obesity sales & Novo only have 30% mkt share in 2029 by sales. PT up to DKK880.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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