Novo - Sema Likely to Work in Alzheimer’s (BUY, TP DKK1150 [1100], 11 pgs)
New analysis of 6 studies shows strong & conclusive evidence that GLP-1 use reduces Alzheimer’s (AD) symptoms, in our view. Novo are trialling oral sema (14mg) in AD, which is due to read out in Sept ’25. Following our analysis, we now assume a 70% chance of success for this trial, which is obviously very high for an AD P3 trial. We show that peak sales could be $10bn even though we assume $150/mth in the US. Furthermore, due to complex manufacturing, those sales could be much more durable. If we are correct, this materially impacts Biogen & LLY. AD analysis increases PT to DKK1150.For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( )
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