TCOM: Better 4Q19, But 1Q20 Is Disrupted By The Epidemic
TCOM will report 4Q19 results on March 18th after the markets close followed by an 8pm EST conference call. Based on our data and calculations, we expect TCOM’s 4Q19 net revenue to be better than consensus at RMB8,258M (9.23% Y/Y growth). However, the outlook for 1Q20 is pessimistic as the outbreak of COVID-19 hurts the traveling and lodging industries deeply. Most of the travel activities throughout China, both domestic and international, have been halted. At this point, it is hard to assess the impact from the outbreak; therefore, we are suspending our price target and rating until we obtain more clarifications.
T.H. Capital is an independent research and investment advisory firm specializing in China. We offers real-time, on-the-ground, bottom-up research across a wide spectrum from macro and industry analysis to company specific projects; from China ADRs to international names that have meaningful exposure to China market. We deliver relevant, comprehensive and data driven research adding immense value to clients.
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