Report
Valens Research

AOS - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 12 06

A. O. Smith(AOS) currently trades near corporate and historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 23.0x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to expand to 35% in 2025, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth going forward.

Similarly, analysts expect Uniform ROA to rise to 32% in 2022, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $74, representing approximately 8% equity downside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about input costs, China, and supply chain disruptions.
Underlying
A. O. Smith Corporation

A.O. Smith is comprised of North America and Rest of World reporting segments. The company's Rest of World segment is primarily comprised of China, Europe and India. Both segments manufacture and market lines of residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, tanks and water treatment products. Both segments primarily manufacture and market in their respective regions of the world. The company's Rest of World segment also manufactures and markets in-home air purification products in China. The company serves residential and commercial end markets in North America with a range of products including water heaters, boilers, water treatment products, and other.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
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  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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