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Valens Research

ASML:NLD - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2018 11 06

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML:NLD) currently trades below recent averages relative to UAFRS-based (Uniform) Earnings, with a 19.8x Uniform P/E. Meanwhile, management has concerns about their profitability levels, 3400C performance, and sales and order intake

Specifically, management may lack confidence in their ability to improve profitability over the year, and to meet their expectations for systems shipped in FY 2019. Moreover, they may lack confidence in their ability to grow their business in China, and may be exaggerating the impact of increasing litho intensity on their high litho spend. Furthermore, they may lack confidence in their ability to reach their availability target percentage for 3400C, and may be exaggerating the potential memory segment market size for 3400C. Additionally, they may lack confidence in the sustainability of strength in metrology and inspection, and may be concerned about the low number of customers with DRAM expansion plans. Finally, they may have concerns about the sustainability of net system sales, memory order intake, and current cash and cash equivalents levels
Underlying
ASML Holding NV

ASML Holding provides lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, manufacturing machines that are used in the production of integrated circuits or chips. Co. develops, produces, markets, sells and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems exclusively consisting of lithography systems. Co. sells its products to micro-processor manufacturers and Foundries, NAND-Flash memory and DRAM memory chipmakers. Co.'s products line includes the following: PAS 5000 lithography systems, which Co. no longer manufactures but continues to refurbish; PAS 5500 products; TWINSCAN DUV systems and TWINSCAN EUV systems based on a new platform utilizing the concepts of the TWINSCAN platform.

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