Report
Valens Research

CMCS.A - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2022 01 04

Comcast (CMCS.A) currently currently trades below corporate but near historical averages relative to Uniform earnings, with a 16.1x Uniform P/E (Fwd. V/E').

At these levels, markets are pricing in expectations for Uniform ROA to compress to 11%, accompanied by 3% Uniform asset growth.

Meanwhile, analysts expect Uniform ROA to improve to 14% in 2022, accompanied by immaterial Uniform asset growth.

If sustained going forward, these levels would imply a stock price closer to $65, representing approximately 32% equity upside for the firm.

Moreover, the firm's most recent earnings call suggests management may have concerns about their broadband business, content, cable business, and capital allocation.
Underlying
Comcast Corporation Class A

Comcast is a media and technology company. The company's segments are: Cable Communications, which provides internet, video, voice, and security and automation services in the United States individually and as bundled services at a discounted rate over its cable distribution system to residential and business customers; NBCUniversal, which includes a portfolio of national cable networks that provide a variety of entertainment, news and information, and sports content, regional sports and news networks, international cable networks, and cable television studio production operations; and Sky, which owns a portfolio of pay television channels that provide entertainment, news, sports and movies.

Provider
Valens Research
Valens Research

In 2009, just as the dust was settling from the last major equity and credit market crises, we launched a boutique research firm with the intention of breaking Wall Street’s biases and broken incentives:

  • GAAP and IFRS have failed to provide rules for reliable financial statement reporting
  • Stock analyst recommendations are not grounded in disciplined financial analysis
  • Credit agencies have been set up to grossly fail in their responsibilities to investors and the public markets
  • Utter lack of willingness of major research firms to employ the the most advanced forensic analysis available

We sought to provide investors and company analysts with a source of information that changed all that.
Many years later, our business model remains because little has changed on Wall Street.

  • Corporate credit ratings remain years behind the fundamental underpinnings of company performance
  • Stock analysts continue to make recommendations with deeply inherent biases
  • Research firms have failed to break down the walls between credit, equity, and macroeconomic research
  • The governing accounting bodies have created more leeway for mis-estimates and mis-classifications as financials have become unwieldy and overwhelming

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Valens Research

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