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Upgrades: Industrials, Energy, Small-Caps, Int'l Equities
Market dynamics remain positive and we believe the path of least resistance is higher for equities. Below are several observations that help lead us to our bullish outlook.
· Small-Caps Leading The Way. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is breaking out to all-time highs and RS shows a major bullish reversal -- overweight small-caps. We view this as an important risk-on signal and is exactly what we would expect to see in a broad-based bull market..
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
Bullish Inflections Around The World
Our previous Int'l Compass (11/5/20) outlined our constructive outlook, with the caveat that $77 support needed to hold on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and that we would shift to a bullish stance on a breakout above $84. Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Staying true to our word and considering market dynamics remain positive, our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips.
· Staggering Number Of Countries With Bullish Inflections. With broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACW...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
In our 11/10/20 Compass we highlighted our belief that current market dynamics suggest eventual decisive breakouts as the most likely outcome for the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100, and that dips should be bought. These indexes and market dynamics have only improved since November 10. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we believe that the path of least resistance is higher for equities. Below we summarize the basis for our bullish outlook, and we discuss the deservedly hot topic of value vs. growth.
What supports our bullish outlook? (1) The S&P 500, Russell 20...
With the 3200-3230 support level holding strong on the S&P 500, we remain constructive over the intermediate-term as outlined in our 11/3/20 Compass. Considering current market dynamics we see eventual decisive breakouts as the most likely outcome for the major averages, which justifies our positive outlook. At the same time, with the S&P 500, Russell 2000, and Nasdaq 100 climbing 7-12% in just over a week and all three testing logical resistance, we believe there is potential for some near-term backing-and-filling. Continue to buy dips.
· Testing Resistance. Both t...
For investors looking for bottom-fishing candidates; stocks that are breaking downtrends, exhibiting ascending reaction lows, and showing stabilizing relative strength.
Emerging Markets Breaking Out
We see global equities (ACWI-US) going through a consolidation phase between support at $77 and resistance at $84. To reiterate, as long as ACWI-US is above $77 we are constructive and would be buyers. Our work suggests that $77 support is likely to hold based on current market dynamics, and we would flip to bullish on a breakout above $84.
· Emerging Markets Breaking Out. One of the many dynamics that supports our constructive outlook is that emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Addi...
Testing Key Support
In last Tuesday's Compass (10/27/20) we noted the S&P 500's break below 3425 short-term support opened the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200. Support at 3325 was violated by Wednesday, however the 3200-3230 level has held and remains important support moving forward. Should 3200-3230 fail to hold, 3130 (the 200-day MA) would be a key line in the sand for us. If this level holds we see the recent pullback as a buying opportunity, however a break below 3130 would signal a bearish trend change. While the election results are likely to bring a healthy dose of volatili...
S&P 500 Testing Support Amid Uncertainties
Short-term support levels have been violated on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 due to uncertainties surrounding rising COVID-19 cases/potential stay-at-home orders, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding new stimulus and the election outcome. While we remain constructive over the intermediate-term, short-term breakdowns have shifted our near-term outlook to a more neutral stance.
· Key S&P 500 Levels. We believe caution is warranted following recent short-term breakdowns. Important support levels on the S&P 500 include 3200-3230 foll...
Uncertainty Hits Global Equities
MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) recently broke below the $81.50 short-term support level we were watching, which tells us that the important $77 support level is likely to be tested. While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support.
· Market Dynamics Still Constructive. Most market dynamics point to this being a relatively contained pullback. The US dollar (D...
Market Sending Mixed Signals
Yesterday's break below 3425 short-term support in the S&P 500 opens the door for potential visits to 3325 and 3200, two important support levels we are watching moving forward. With that said, as long as 3200 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. At the same time, small-caps are providing a risk-on signal with the Russell 2000 (IWM) still holding above $159 short-term support. Leadership from small-caps is something we would expect to see in a broad-based bull market, and if IWM is above $159 it is hard to get too beari...
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