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Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Odfjell SE (Buy, TP: NOK225.00) - Bullish earnings outlook

We have raised our Chemical Tankers rate estimates on the c7% increase QOQ in Q1 and with expectations for further growth in Q2, supported by an outlook for improved chemical production and limited supply ahead. We estimate a double-digit dividend yield through 2026e despite a modest payout ratio, and believe Odfjell screens as an attractive exposure to the tanker segment at an average 2024–2025e EV/EBITDA of 3.7x, versus the broader tanker peer group at 4.5x. We reiterate our BUY, and have rais...

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Minor model adjustments

We have marginally increased our revenue estimates and revised our cost assumptions, owing to the Q1 results. With no surprises related to the Red Sea disruption or the Baltimore bridge accident, focus should shift to shareholder distributions. The revised dividend policy allows for extraordinary dividends at the board’s discretion, something we have not seen before, and the first possibility could be in connection with Q2. We calculate cNOK25/share in excess cash today, potentially on top of N...

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

2020 Bulkers Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates following the Q1 report and latest commercial update. We remain concerned about the outlook for the dry bulk market, versus the elevated vessel valuations and sentiment. On our numbers, 2020 Bulkers is valued at P/NAV 1.06x, above the peer group average of ~0.86x. Despite the company boasting impressive financial strength and a modern fleet with associated earnings premiums to buffer lower freight rates, we remain cautious on the potential downside should market tai...

Gerardo Ibanez ... (+2)
  • Gerardo Ibanez
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 05/08/2024 Date Performance sin...

Unifiedpost is a niche SaaS player in the e-invoicing and procurement channel space. Regulatory headwinds mean this market is ripe for growth, which should benefit Unifiedpost. Due to some unsuccessful past M&A, the company is in a challenging financial position today. However, it has recently embarked on a divestment path, aiming to streamline the business and improve its fundamentals. We like the new direction, however prefer to take a wait-and-see approach. - ...

Gerardo Ibanez ... (+2)
  • Gerardo Ibanez
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 08/05/2024 Date Performance dep...

Unifiedpost is a niche SaaS player in the e-invoicing and procurement channel space. Regulatory headwinds mean this market is ripe for growth, which should benefit Unifiedpost. Due to some unsuccessful past M&A, the company is in a challenging financial position today. However, it has recently embarked on a divestment path, aiming to streamline the business and improve its fundamentals. We like the new direction, however prefer to take a wait-and-see approach. - ...

Thijs Berkelder
  • Thijs Berkelder

Euronav : Still full in transition

>Ex disposals, Q1 results roughly in-line with expectations - Revenues in 24Q1 have fallen to $ 240.4m, down from $ 340m in 23Q1. Net revenues (after voyage expense) in 24Q1 have fallen to $ 203.5m (AAOB $ 197.9m) from $ 305.1m in 23Q1.EBITDA is reported at $ 550.5m but excluding disposal gain of $ 407.6m amounts to $ 142.9m (BB consensus $ 150m), down from $ 258.5m in 23Q1Net profit in 24Q1 has jumped to $ 495.0m (AAOB $ 492.6m) primarily thanks to the $ 40...

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Klaveness Combination Carriers (Buy, TP: NOK137.00) - Harvesting stead...

The Q1 report revealed strong operations to maximise the value of the company’s unique three-legged market position, providing attractive exposure to upside potential in strong shipping markets, while diversifying possible downside risk. Bulkers and tankers are seeing a constructive supply story over the coming years, while regulations monetise KCC’s unrivalled efficiency. Thus, we find KCC remains undervalued and we reiterate our BUY. We have raised our target price to NOK137 (124).

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Himalaya Shipping (Hold, TP: NOK99.00) - Set to face market headwinds

We value Himalaya’s top-modern fleet at a NAV of NOK116/share, including our NPV of its LNG dual-fuel, and arrive at a 0.77x P/NAV and 0.9x EV/GAV. With its highly attractive 7-year fixed-rate financing and potential premium earnings from LNG fuel (and scrubbers), we find the company partly shielded from the softer freight markets we expect medium-term. However, due to sector headwinds, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), but raised our target price to NOK99 (88).

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

AB InBev: Busy BEES. Ahold Delhaize: Small beat, comforting confirmation of 2024 guidance. AMG: 1Q24 better than expected, FY guidance intact, strategic projects on schedule. Bekaert: Soft start to the year with 7% sales miss, FY guidance maintained. Euronav: Transformation at full speed. Marel: Another lacklustre quarter. Montea: 2025 guidance raised, valuations moving into positive territory. SBM Offshore: In-line Q1 trading update. Sif Group: Preview - normal quarter e...

Hilde Van Boxstael ... (+8)
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi

Morning Notes : ABI BB, AD NA, BEKB BB, EURN BB, GBLB BB, MONT BB, SOL...

: ABI BB, AD NA, BEKB BB, EURN BB, GBLB BB, MONT BB, SOLB BB, MAAT FP

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

EBITDA as expected and no big news

Adj. EBITDA of USD 439m (1% vs. ABGSC, -1% vs. cons). Shipping services and Logistics above ABGSCe, Government and Holdings belowFlat share price given no surprises in the conference call

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Higher contract share of 75%

Net rates of USD 83.5/CBM in April, down 1% from March. ~12% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q2'24e. Share to trade down 1-2%.

Luuk Van Beek
  • Luuk Van Beek

Euronav - Continuing its transformation in Q1

Q1 results roughly in line with expectationsProposes USD 1.15 dividend for Q1, moves to fully discretionary policyEstimates will be reviewed to reflect recent trends in various end markets

 PRESS RELEASE

SFL - Invitation to Presentation of Q1 2024 Results

SFL - Invitation to Presentation of Q1 2024 Results SFL Corporation Ltd. ("SFL" or the “Company”) (NYSE: SFL) plans to release its preliminary financial results for the first quarter of 2024 on Tuesday, May 14, 2024. SFL plans to host a conference call and webcast for all stakeholders and interested parties on Tuesday, May 14, 2024, at 10:00 AM (EST) / 4:00 PM (CET). Relevant material will on the same day be available from the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website at  In order to listen to the conference call and presentation, you may do one of the following: A: Join Confere...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke
ACM AECOM
EME EMCOR GROUP ... (+25)

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact Over the past two weeks we have discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and the mounting evidence that suggests the lows may be in for this pullback (4/30/24 Compass). Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below. As a result, we continue to believe the lows are in for this pullback, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on t...

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Continue to trade where rates are best

Q2e up on guidance, reiterating our long-term outlook. ABGSCe 47% above cons. for ’25e net profit. TP NOK 156 (147) – P/NAV 0.90x.

 PRESS RELEASE

Avance Gas agrees one-year Time Charter for Chinook

Avance Gas agrees one-year Time Charter for Chinook Hamilton, Bermuda May 7, 2024 Avance Gas Holding Ltd ("Avance Gas" or the "Company") (OSE: AGAS) today announce that it has extended the variable Time Charter for the VLGC Chinook (built 2015) expiring July 2024 by one year with an energy major. The new Time Charter period thus aligning with the drydocking window for the ship expected to take place mid-2025.  For further queries, please contact: Media contact: Øystein Kalleklev, CEO, Tel: Investor and Analyst contact: Randi Navdal Bekkelund, CFO, Tel: ABOUT AVANCE G...

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Petter Haugen

Much as expected

Q1'24 EBITDA of USD 38m, TCE pre-announced. Q2'24 average fleet TCE earnings in-line with ABGSCe. Much as expected, stock flat today.

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Star Bulk (Hold, TP: USD27.00) - Raised estimates, but higher risk

We have raised our near-term estimates on current market strength. However, fundamental Chinese import demand continues to be in question, while we believe the elevated asset values and improved P/NAV create a precarious situation for the months ahead. Hence, we see a deteriorating risk/reward and remain materially below consensus for 2025e. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), but raised our target price to USD27.0 (25.0) on recent market tailwinds.

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Genco Shipping & Trading (Hold, TP: USD22.60) - Risk/reward deteriorat...

While we believe Genco remains a discounted entry into dry bulk exposure at a P/NAV of 0.77x, the recent share price rise and freight market strength have put more focus on the downside risks to our dry bulk sector outlook. Genco is set for a solid first half of the year on our estimates, but we find the risk/reward less attractive medium-term. Hence, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), but raised our target price to USD22.6 (22.5).

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