reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
African Telcos Deep dive on Fintech valuations; stay Bullish on AAF a...
We deep dive on African Telco’s Fintech valuations in this note which is a follow up of our higher-level note Show me the (Mobile) Money. African Telcos are becoming more active about unlocking value from Mobile Money (MoMo) with MTN’s recent deal with Mastercard and now rumours that AAF is looking to IPO its MoMo business. Global Fintech/Payments multiples have derated over the past couple of years, but we continue to see great value in the African Telco’s MoMo assets which remain one the key n...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: 210p, +83%) Q3 24: Solid underlying performan...
Airtel Africa has published a solid set of Q3 results with both revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating in local currency. Margins over the first nine month of the year are trending above 9m23 which is in line with the message given in Q2.
- Chris Hoare
African Telcos & Towers Outlook 2024; Fundamental strength masked by ...
2023 was a relatively tough year for African Telcos, with strong macro headwinds driving currency weakness and cost pressures. With inflation starting to subside some of this pressure is easing, although some African currencies may continue to weaken.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Decent quarter in a challenging macro en...
Q3 was a decent quarter for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators. Fundamentals remain strong. We have updated forecasts post Q3 results, and our recommendations and target prices remain unchanged, except for Safaricom. AAF remains our preferred play in Africa.
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Solid underlying top line and KPIs, mixed EBITDA; Q3 ...
Market service revenue growth slightly slowed but remained robust in Q3. Both MTN and AAF managed to grow underlying service revenue just above 20% YoY, which is a solid performance given the current macro-economic pressures and the absence of price increases.
Airtel Africa Plc H1:2024 FYE Performance - Charting through Tumultuou...
FX Devaluation Hinder Revenue Growth In its recently released H1:2024 financial result, Airtel Africa Plc (AIRTELAFRI) posted a marginal increase in its consolidated topline in reporting currency. Overall Revenue increased by 2.28% YoY in H1:2024 (vs. 12.88% YoY in H1:2023). This slowdown in growth can be attributed to currency devaluations across markets in all its regions of operation. In Nigeria, the effect of the FX liberalization policy—which resulted in a sizable devaluation in June 2023—...
- Chris Hoare
5G FWA in EM Poor man’s paradise; income and propensity to spend sugg...
This is the 3rd in a series of notes looking at FWA (see HERE and HERE). Like us, the market appears to be getting more bullish on FWA in EM, and a series of events such as Jio’s launch suggest FWA could be a significant use case for 5G in Emerging Markets.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Good performance in a challenging macro ...
Q2 was a good quarter for Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators which continue to benefit from strong fundamentals. Trends accelerated across the board in Nigeria as well as in the other geographies, margins were decent and the capex intensity slowed this quarter.
- Chris Hoare
EM Telcos Q2 23: Slightly slower driven by China
EM Telcos top line growth slowed somewhat in Q2 again driven by a slower quarter in China. However, other markets stayed strong and simple average revenue growth was 8.5%. Our thesis remains that EM telcos are set to grow sustainably at GDP+ rates, as they have been now for 3 years. With the rates cycle seemingly peaking, macro headwinds may also start to improve, and we continue to believe that EM Telcos are still not in our view priced for mid-term GDP+ growth, and rising returns.
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $10, +104%) Further thoughts on IHS’ MTN contrac...
10 days ago MTN announced it would not be renewing a contract for 2,500 tenancies with IHS in Nigeria. This is a global first in the Towers space we believe (a financially healthy operator choosing not to renew an expiring tower contract).
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
Nigerian Telcos Faster quarter, strong underlying trends but larger F...
Underlying performance remained strong for both MTN and AAF which saw an improvement in top line and EBITDA trends. However, macro challenges remain and the devaluation of Naira will have a greater impact on headline numbers next quarter.
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos Are the price wars finally over?
For 15 years, EM Telcos were engaged in a war for market share, with price the primary weapon. But peace is now breaking out globally. Mobile prices are rising across global EM (India, Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand among others). In this note, we analyze which markets have the greatest potential for recovery, based on 3 criteria: affordability, market structure and challenger returns.
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR250, +79%) MTN Group - Q2 23: Solid results, Fintech...
MTN has reported a solid set of Q2 results. Group service revenue trends were stable while EBITDA trends accelerated. But the key announcement today was that of a commercial partnership through the signature of a MoU for a minority investment with Mastercard on the fintech side.
Airtel Africa Plc Q1:2024 Performance - The Constraints of Unrealized ...
The Constraints of Unrealized FX Losses Revenue Growth Offset by FX Losses In its recently released Q1:2024 financial result, Airtel Africa Plc (AIRTELAFRI) posted growth in its consolidated topline in reporting currency. During the period, markets in Nigeria and East Africa noted significant currency devaluations which depressed AIRTELAFRI’s Opco’s constant currency growth levels upon a Group consolidation. Solid Operating Margins: Delayed Impact of Naira FX Devaluation In reporting currenc...
- Chris Hoare
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