HEADLINES: • Kaspi.kz: agrees to acquire Türkiye's Hepsiburada NEUTRAL • Kaspi.kz: 3Q24 highlights - on track to meet guidance NEUTRAL • Al Arabia: MBC Group sells 4.9% of shares of Al Arabia NEGATIVE • Solutions by STC: establishment of JV with Jedco completed NEUTRAL • OTE: ANAF imposes EUR 33.5m in additional tax charges related to alleged VAT and CIT miscalculations NEGATIVE • Greece macro/banks: BOG increases the countercyclical capital buffer rate to 0.25%, with effect from October 2025E N...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: announces PLN 356m of net profit in 3Q24 POSITIVE • Allegro: introduction of spirits suspended NEGATIVE • Medicover: seeking approval to acquire laboratories in Romania • Solutions by STC: signs contract with Saudi Telecom Company • Erste Bank: 3Q24E preview (due on 31 October) • cyber_Folks: 3Q24E results preview – 24% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth (due on 13 November) • Auto Partner: 3Q24E EBITDA down 6% yoy (due on 19 November) • Short News (4iG)
HEADLINES: • Greek oil refiners: need a little time to shake things up (HELLENiQ Energy downgraded to HOLD, Motor Oil Hellas stays BUY) • VIGO Photonics: 3Q24 sales down 5% yoy, to PLN 15.7m NEGATIVE • Allegro: announces another change in CEO post NEGATIVE • InPost: acquisition of remaining 70% stake in Menzies for GBP 60m POSITIVE • Orange Polska: key takeaways from an interview with the CFO NEUTRAL • Polish media: TVN put on sale for PLN 5bn, according to Newsweek NEUTRAL • ING BSK: 3Q24E prev...
HEADLINES: • Turkish Food Retailers: entering a new era (BIM and Migros stay BUY, Sok Marketler downgraded to HOLD) • Air Astana Group: margins attracting rivals (downgraded to HOLD) • Czech Republic macro: September inflation rises as food inflation reaccelerates • Hungary macro: September inflation slows slightly more than expected • Auto Partner: September sales growth decelerates further, to a limited 5% yoy NEGATIVE • Inter Cars: September sales growth slows down to 5% yoy, below our expect...
HEADLINES: • CCC: Shaq attaq (stays BUY) • Text: 2Q24-25 (calendar 3Q24) preliminary results - MRR of USD 7.04m (-0.4% qoq, +8.8% yoy) NEGATIVE • Dom Development: strong sales performance in 3Q24 POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: to set aside PLN 470m of FX mortgage provisions in 3Q24E, cost of credit holidays lower NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP extends the pause • GEVORKYAN: EUR 31m long-term contract in the defence industry xx POSITIVE • Cimsa: completes the acquisition of Mannok DAC POSITIVE • Dino P...
EME Equity Market - September 2024 EME indices mostly in the red in September; rebound in Greece. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 2.0% in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms in September. The Greek ASE Index was the best performer in our region, advancing 1.4% mom in EUR terms. Muted performances were seen in Czechia and Hungary (+0.3% and +0.2% mom, respectively in EUR terms), with declines in Poland, Romania and Turkey (-3.6%, -2.9% and -1.5% mom, respectively in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Medicover: private healthcare pioneer keeps on rolling (BUY - initiation of coverage) • OTE: safe dividend play (upgraded to BUY) • National Bank of Greece: HFSF launches the sale of a 10% stake in NBG NEUTRAL • PCF Group: 2Q24 results in negative territory, below our expectations NEGATIVE • mBank: issues traditional profit warning related to the CHF mortgage saga, ahead of 3Q24E results NEUTRAL • InPost: 4.9% price hike for Allegro NEUTRAL • Allegro: introduction of spirits from 21...
We initiate coverage of Medicover with a BUY rating and a price target (PT) of SEK 238/share. Medicover provides healthcare and diagnostic services across several European markets - mainly Poland, Germany and Romania - as well as India. It offers a well-tested proposition: healthcare services and facilities that are “a cut above” those offered by the State systems, at prices accessible to the middle classes. The business generated a 2019-23 revenues CAGR of 20%; excluding acquisitions, the top l...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: forging forward (stays BUY) • CCC: 2Q24 results a notch above prelims; positive trends maintained in 2Q24 POSITIVE • VIGO Photonics: miss on adjusted EBITDA and bottom line NEGATIVE • Kaspi.kz: issues response to short seller report • Hungary macro: MNB resumes the easing cycle • 11 bit studios: Frostpunk 2 falls to 20th position on Steam top seller list, player reviews recover marginally NEUTRAL • National Bank of Greece: HFSF to sell up to 12% of its stake
We have increased our annual investment scale to PLN 2.5bn, in the long term, up from PLN 2.3bn, leading to our 2024-25E net profit increases of c.8%. Higher investments for longer result in value creation in the medium term, as revenues build up slowly, but more sustainably in a debt-collecting business. We continue to see Kruk as a high-quality long-term growth story, and we see most of the upside coming from that angle. However, at the current valuation juncture, we also see Kruk as cheap, tr...
>Continued solid margin expansion - Allegro reported relatively strong Q2 24 results, with overall results roughly reflecting the quarterly guidance. Active Buyers and GMV/Active Buyer metrics continue to increase, contributing to solid yoy group revenue growth (+24% yoy for the Polish operations). Advertising revenue in Poland showed another quarter of good growth (+30% yoy), and is expected to continue to be supportive of group revenues. Overall, Q2 24 revenues were...
HEADLINES: • Colt CZ Group SE: full metal jacket (stays BUY) • Pegasus Airlines: another good year (stays HOLD) • Allegro: 2Q24 above expectations, but growth deceleration guided for 3Q24E NEUTRAL • Echo Investment: 2Q24 ahead of PAP consensus expectations • Auto Partner: key takeaways from the 2Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Halyk Bank: announces programme to buy back up to USD 50m of its GDRs
HEADLINES: • GEVORKYAN: 2Q24 EBITDA down 12% yoy on one-off costs NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: 2Q24 slightly ahead of expectations NEUTRAL • CCC: change of Modivo CEO NEUTRAL • NEPI Rockcastle: potential acquisition of Magnolia Park • Kety: 3Q24E preview – stable EBITDA (+4% yoy) expected (due on 19 September)
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: expensive after the rally (downgraded to SELL) • 11 bit studios: interview with CEO – “very satisfied” with Frostpunk 2 pre-orders POSITIVE • MOL: secures new agreements for crude supply via Druzhba POSITIVE • Allegro: 2Q24E results preview – 28% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 19 September) • Short News (CEZ)
HEADLINES: • Duna House: loan ranger, with dividends to boot (BUY) • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (2-8 September) • Huuuge Games: 2Q24 earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: August sales growth decelerates to just 7% yoy NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: class action lawsuit in the US regarding technical solutions used by GOG NEUTRAL • PCF Group: termination of credit facilities at Bank Pekao NEUTRAL • DIGI Communications: delivers first part of FTTH network in Spain NEUTRAL
We maintain our BUY rating on Inter Cars (CAR) and our HOLD on Auto Partner (APR). The 2024E outlook now seems more challenging for auto parts distributors than we assumed in our February update. We believe, however, that this has already been priced in by the market. The key differences in the 2024E outlook between APR and CAR were reflected in the 1Q24 yoy SG&A dynamics, with CAR weathering the cost pressure better, in our view. Despite the short-term challenges, we believe the long-term funda...
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