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Michael B. Schäfer
  • Michael B. Schäfer

BASF : Feedback from mgmt. dinner - good October volumes, primarily in...

>Make or break € 8bn 2024 EBITDA guidance? 'Tight race', says mgmt; consensus already cautious at € 7.86bn, good 'Verbund' volume trends seen continuing in October - BASF hosted a sell-side/investors dinner with the executive board. BASF’s management confirmed a 'tight race' to make/break its FY 24 guidance, while the good volume trends seen primarily in the core 'Verbund' (Q3 24 +6.8% y-o-y vs 4.9% at group level) continued in October. The CEO indicated that this is ...

Stephane Beyazian
  • Stephane Beyazian

Deutsche Telekom : Q3 2024: Germany not much impacted by higher compet...

>Q3 2024: solid figures with adjusted EBITDAaL +6% y-o-y - Q3 2024 sales are up 4% like-for-like y-o-y to € 28,501m in line with consensus (ODDO BHF € 28,028m, consensus € 28,470m). Q3 2024 adjusted EBITDAaL is up 6% y-o-y to € 11,096m or 1% above consensus (ODDO BHF € 10,972m, consensus € 11,045m). FCFaL are up 28% year-to-date to € 15bn, helped by lower cash capex (-10% year-to-date).Deutsche Telekom is overall confirming guidance: (i) adjusted EBITDAaL of € 4...

Stephane Beyazian
  • Stephane Beyazian

Deutsche Telekom : Q3 2024: Germany not much impacted by higher compet...

>Q3 2024: solid figures with adjusted EBITDAaL +6% y-o-y - Q3 2024 sales are up 4% like-for-like y-o-y to € 28,501m in line with consensus (ODDO BHF € 28,028m, consensus € 28,470m). Q3 2024 adjusted EBITDAaL is up 6% y-o-y to € 11,096m or 1% above consensus (ODDO BHF € 10,972m, consensus € 11,045m). FCFaL are up 28% year-to-date to € 15bn, helped by lower cash capex (-10% year-to-date).Deutsche Telekom is overall confirming guidance: (i) adjusted EBITDAaL of € 4...

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Deutsche Telekom (Buy, €36, +30%) Q3 24: Not yet benefitting from the...

After all the excitement of the CMD, we are back to business with a modest upgrade to DT’s ex-US EBITDA guidance, supported both by Germany and Europe.

Jan Frederik Slijkerman ... (+5)
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Jesse Norcross
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/E.ON, Hera, ASML, Deutsche Telekom, Teleco...

Utilities - E.ON: Indebtedness increases; bonds look too expensive. Hera posted robust 9M24 results

Alvaro del Pozo
  • Alvaro del Pozo

DEUTSCHE TELEKOM: RDOS. 3T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Rdos. 3T'24 vs 3T'23: Ventas: 28.501 M euros (+3,4% vs +3,7% BS(e) y +3,4% consenso); EBITDA: 11.096 M euros (+5,8% vs +5,5% BS(e) y +5,6% consenso); BDI: 2.335 M euros (+3,0% vs +5,3% BS(e) y +5,6% consenso). Rdos. 9meses'24 vs 9meses'23: Ventas: 84.837 M euros (+78,2% vs +78,3% BS(e) y +78,1% consenso); EBITDA: 32.388 M euros (+6,2% vs +6,1% BS(e) y +6,2% consenso); BDI: 7.050 M euros (+15,3% vs +16,2% BS(e) y +16,3% consenso).

Research Department
  • Research Department

INFORME DIARIO 14 NOVIEMBRE + RDOS. ESPAÑA 3T’24. IDEAS DESTACADAS Y P...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: FERROVIAL, GRIFOLS, IBERDROLA. EUROPA: ASML, DEUTSCHE TELEKOM, PROSUS, SIEMENS. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’24 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. La inflación estadounidense sigue el camino esperado Las bolsas europeas terminaron con caídas, aunque el dato de i...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2024

We maintain our Outperform rating on CaixaBank, one of our Top Picks in the sector, with a higher target of € 7.2 vs € 6.7 and ahead of the CMD on 19 November. We are lifting our net income estimates by 7% for 2025-2026, to 7% above the consensus. The strategic update is set to highlight the wisdom of the business model diversification (long-term savings) to address the current transition phase on rates. Despite a solid market performance, the profile does not look to be fully reflec...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+3)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2024

Nous réitérons notre opinion Surperformance sur CaixaBank, l’un de nos top picks du secteur, avec un OC porté à 7.2 € vs 6.7 € et en amont du CMD du 19/11. Nous relevons nos anticipations de RN de 7% sur 2025/2026 qui ressortent 7% supérieures au consensus. L’update stratégique devrait mettre en avant la pertinence de la diversification du business model (épargne LT) face à la transition actuelle sur les taux. Malgré un solide parcours boursier, cela n’est pas pleinement reflété dans ...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Spain: the PSOE and SUMAR looking to abolish the SOCIMI regime

>PSOE and Sumar spring a surprise in seeking to suddenly abolish the SOCIMI regime - On Monday 11 November, the PSOE reached a tax agreement with its Spanish government ally, “Sumar”, whereby the two parties want to abolish the SOCIMI REIT regime or at least part of its tax advantages. This sudden stance, which surprised Spanish property professionals, is thus different from the position that was presented just last week, namely to “encourage the construction of affor...

Florent Laroche-Joubert ... (+3)
  • Florent Laroche-Joubert
  • Roy Külter
  • Steven Boumans

ODDO : Espagne : le PSOE et SUMAR souhaiteraient abolir le régime SOCI...

>PSOE et Sumar créent la surprise en voulant supprimer soudainement le régime SOCIMI - Ce lundi 11 novembre, le PSOE sont parvenus à un accord fiscal avec son allié au gouvernement espagnol, « Sumar », par lequel les deux partis veulent supprimer le régime SOCIMI ou au moins une partie de ses avantages fiscaux. Cette prise de position soudaine qui a crée la surprise auprès des professionnels de l’immobilier espagnol, diffère ainsi de la position qui était encore mise ...

Jan Frederik Slijkerman
  • Jan Frederik Slijkerman

TMT hybrid yields trended lower/Move up in quality

In this report we evaluate spreads in the TMT hybrids space. Over the year, TMT hybrid notes have performed well. However, we now think the tightening potential over senior notes is more limited. One can move up in quality (or lower duration) without giving up much additional spread.

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Telefonica (Neutral, €4.5, +7%) Q3 24 – Revenue, EBITDA and FCF beat

Telefonica’s Q3 results are solid, being marginally ahead of consensus across the board. In particular, strong KPIs in Spain and high organic growth in Brazil stands out, and with all guidance reiterated, we believe there could be some upside to consensus estimates.

Alvaro del Pozo
  • Alvaro del Pozo

TELEFÓNICA: MENSAJES DE LA CONFERENCE CALL RDOS. 3T’24 (ANÁLISIS BANCO...

De la conference call de Rdos. 3T’24 destacamos los siguientes mensajes:  España: A pesar de un entorno de mayor competencia en el segmento de bajo costo,

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