reports
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - 2025 Growth Sensitivities (BUY, TP DKK1150, 8pgs)
Following management commentary on sales growth in 2025, we have calculated the implied sensitivity to Wegovy supply & the potential impact on consensus group sales. We show that high-teens group sales growth implies 40% US Wegovy sales growth in 2025. This is below consensus. Given our previous analysis [here] on falling Wegovy prices but higher volumes, the CTLT deal is now the most important catalyst, in our view: even more important than the cagrisema readout, which we forecast accounts for ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo Nordisk - CagriSema Valuation Sensitivities (BUY, TP DKK1150)
Whilst the potential P3 data outcomes are widely understood, we are increasingly being asked what the valuation impact would be under various scenarios as investors position themselves for the upcoming readout. We assess 4 potential scenarios ranging from worst case to best case and calculate the peak sales impact, the NPV impact and what might happen to Novo’s valuation & multiple under each scenario. Based on the outcome, we see a $24bn delta in CagriSema peak sales, a -6% to +14% NPV impact...
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
The Hardman & Co Monthly: November 2024
Feature article: “ROOM” (Running Out of Money) risk, How managing liquidity risk can sustain corporate value and maintain shareholder confidence As we come close to the end of a very challenging year for many UK entrepreneurs, as well as a frustrating period for shareholders, it is time to address one elephant in the ROOM! ROOM stands for “Running Out of Money”. The risk of doing so, or the perception that it could occur, can destroy corporate values and prematurely paralyse a business. While ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Obesity Thematic - A Deep-Dive into Amylin
In the coming days at Obesity Week, we will see multiple datasets from amylin assets that could help to further support our belief that amylin combinations could become a material MOA in the Obesity market. Ahead of the Cagrisema P3 readout, we dig deep into the potential for amylin and show: 1) It has a superior tolerability profile, 2) Could preserve lean muscle mass and 3) Could be neuroprotective. We analyse the majority of the clinical data available on these drugs & show that the full prom...
- Brian Moretta
- Keith Hiscock
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
Hardman & Co Monthly: October 2024
Feature article: Labour’s first Budget - Investors in their sights? Summary ► Budgets are always important for investors. ► The imminent Budget, at the end of October, will be doubly so, because it is the first from the new Labour government, and it has already signalled the need to fill an alleged £22bn black hole, while ruling out changes to more than half the tax base. That implies a lot of the pain will be felt by investors. ► This paper considers the impact of increases in rates for th...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Collapsing Wegovy Prices is Bullish (BUY, TP DKK 1150, 16 pgs)
In this deep-dive, we show that despite our 2027 Wegovy price of just $200/mth in the US, we are ~20% above consensus on Wegovy & ~30% above cons. on Novo’s Obesity portfolio in 2030. We show why we expect pricing to collapse but that market fears on pricing are far too pessimistic. We believe Wegovy will become the US market leader by volume and benefit from step edits from 2027 onwards. We model Commercial & Medicare channels separately for both price & volume & also show compelling evidence t...
- Brian Moretta
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
Hardman & Co Monthly: September 2024
Feature article: The Tiktok generation are becoming “renegade” investors - How Gen Z’s investing habits differ from past generations As the landscape of investing evolves, a new generation is stepping onto the stage with fresh perspectives and unique approaches that are reshaping financial markets. At Hardman & Co, we’ve always been committed to understanding these shifts, and this month’s article delves into the rapidly changing ways in which Gen Z interacts with investment information and ma...
Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 15 August 2024
15th August 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour Dish of the day Admissions: None Delistings: Tertre Rouge Assets Plc (TRA.L) has delisted from the Standard Segment of the Main Market. What’s baking in the oven? ** Reverse Takeovers: Earnz plc (EARN.L) is an AIM Rule 15 cash shell, which is required to make an acquisition or ...
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
- Nigel Hawkins
Hardman & Co Monthly: August 2024
Feature article: Solid IICs, cash-consolidating REIFs Since the beginning of 2024, the share prices of Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs) have generally remained lacklustre, failing to recover from the losses experienced in 2023. A significant factor contributing to this trend has been the sharp rise in interest rates since 2021, which has negatively impacted the sector due to the increased yields on “risk-free” 10-year gilts. The recent...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Sema Likely to Work in Alzheimer’s (BUY, TP DKK1150 [1100], 11 ...
New analysis of 6 studies shows strong & conclusive evidence that GLP-1 use reduces Alzheimer’s (AD) symptoms, in our view. Novo are trialling oral sema (14mg) in AD, which is due to read out in Sept ’25. Following our analysis, we now assume a 70% chance of success for this trial, which is obviously very high for an AD P3 trial. We show that peak sales could be $10bn even though we assume $150/mth in the US. Furthermore, due to complex manufacturing, those sales could be much more durable. If w...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Obesity Market Deep-Dive - Part 1: Fragmentation Underestimated
In the 1st of a 3-part series, we show that the obesity market is set to become incredibly complex, with the current duopoly to be weakened, creating several investment opportunities over the coming years. We expect >15 drugs to launch by 2027, with >5 oral & >10 injectable, with >5 different mechanisms, from ~5 different companies. This fragmentation will create much more dynamism than currently assumed by the market. The statin market provides significant learnings for this fragmentation. We s...
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
- Mike Foster
Hardman & Co Monthly: July 2024
Feature article: UK life sciences needs more local institutional support to survive. For two years running, the Hardman & Co Healthcare index has declined, underperforming both the FTSE 100 and the FTSE All-Share indices. This is quite unusual for healthcare stocks. Apart from the general economic influences, which have made institutions more risk-averse, there was a common knowledge that several companies were in need of additional working capital; so, share prices were marked down in anticipa...
Q&A on accesso Technology Group (ACSO): Leading the way in leisure ind...
Hardman & Co Research Q&A on accesso Technology Group (ACSO): Leading the way in leisure industry solutions 01-Jul-2024 / 10:38 GMT/BST The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Analyst interview | Technology Q&A on accesso Technology Group (ACSO) | Leading the way in leisure industry solutions Accesso Technology (ACSO) is the topic of conversation when Hardman & Co analyst Richard Jeans joins DirectorsTalk Interviews. Richard Jeans offers a comprehensive overview of accesso Technology Group, a leading provider of innovative solutions to the globa...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Thematic Research - Quantifying The Impact From Part D Reform
In 2025, Big Pharma will be exposed to further US drug pricing reform as a result of the IRA act. This is the final big change to play out and we calculate there is the potential for a mid-single digit EBIT impact for some companies, but there is material heterogeneity in terms of the magnitude of the impact. There is also the potential for upside for Novo & LLY. However, given the significant complexity in the reimburse-ment changes & in computing the current sales in Medicare Part D, we are re...
- Richard Jeans
Initiation of coverage: accesso Technology Group (ACSO) - Unique solut...
accesso provides technology solutions to the global leisure and attractions industry, servicing more than 1,200 venues across 34 countries. While the share price slumped from late 2018 and bottomed during the pandemic, the group is now on a new footing. Following a five-year break, the company has made four acquisitions to help drive fresh momentum. These acquisitions add functional breadth to the offering as well as increased geographical spread. The company has a unique business profile and a ...
Initiation of Coverage on accesso Technology Group (ACSO): Unique solu...
Hardman & Co Research Initiation of Coverage on accesso Technology Group (ACSO): Unique solutions provider to global leisure industry 03-Jun-2024 / 16:39 GMT/BST The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Hardman & Co Research – Initiation of Coverage – accesso Technology Group (ACSO): Unique solutions provider to global leisure industry accesso provides technology solutions to the global leisure and attractions industry, servicing more than 1,200 venues across 34 countries. While the share price slumped from late 2018 and bottomed during the pand...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Wegovy Stockpiling Almost $5bn (BUY, TP DKK1100, 5 pgs)
Our latest analysis shows that Novo could drive material consensus upgrades by starting to release a potential ~$5bn Wegovy stockpile. With Novo restricting Wegovy supply between Nov-21 & Dec-22, and then from May-23 onwards, they have built up a substantial stockpile of product, in our view. Our analysis of their inventory shows there is likely as much as $5bn of finished or close-to-finished Wegovy product at current US net prices. Our analysis of the supply chain and distribution strategy exp...
Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 27 Mar 24
27th March 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - 8 Reasons It’s Going to DKK1100 (BUY, TP DKK1100 [850], 18 pgs)
Novo are just too good to bet against. We now increase our 2030 obesity franchise sales to $50bn and most importantly show that sema’ is only 27% of group sales in 2031. Therefore, if sema’ sales halve by 2034, it’s only a ~5% p.a. headwind to group sales 2032-34. Greater visibility on the post-sema outlook is a strong reason for the Novo multiple to be retained into 2025. We see 8 reasons why Novo will hit DKK1100 in the next year, driven by EPS upgrades, increased supply & P3 readouts. We see ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma - 2024 Year Ahead (28 pgs)
For EU Pharma, 2024 is likely to be characterised by EPS revisions, a handful of new launches & sluggish EPS growth for a number of names. The relative lack of pipeline catalysts makes forecasting sales and EPS much more important than for 2023. We identify 4 key issues to watch for: 1) Medicaid AMP cap removal, 2) Higher tax costs, 3) Higher debt costs & 4) a handful of very specific company issues that could make a material difference to performance (Novo: Wegovy supply, GSK: litigation, SAN: ...
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