reports
- Mark Thomas
- Nigel Hawkins
Hardman & Co Monthly: September 2025
Feature article: IICS/REIFS – NAV discounts and the ill wind from Denmark Since the start of 2024, the share prices of the eight Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and of the 18 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs) have been generally weak – and, conspicuously, have failed to recover the losses of 2023. Undoubtedly, high interest rates have undermined the sector – and there is no certainty that they will fall significantly. Not only has this situation adversely affected NAVs, b...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Upgrade to HOLD (PT DKK300, 8pgs)
With the orfo’ data being on the lower side of expectations, we upgrade to Hold as the narrative is likely to be dominated by the potential upside for Novo. However, we remain convinced that: 1) The obesity market is nowhere near as big as the market believes, 2) Ozempic no’s are far too high & 3) Margin forecasts need to fall. Cons’ Ozempic forecasts will take time to fall & we will likely need the IRA price in November to force consensus lower. Therefore, we see limited S-T downside to our DKK...
- Keith Hiscock
- Mark Thomas
Hardman & Co Monthly: August 2025
Feature article: Economic growth: Cry me a river The UK press and politicians are fixated on growth. The Labour Government came into office 12 months ago promising a new dawn. Its top priority was growth. Its manifesto, “Labour Party Manifesto 2024: Our plan to change Britain” devoted an entire chapter to “Kickstart economic growth”. In this article, we cover: ► Why growth is important ► The downside of growth ► What do politicians and markets mean by growth? ► Is growth in aggregate GDP th...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Oversize Downgrade - PT Cut to DKK300 (SELL, TP DKK300 [350], 8...
Whilst our downgrade to Sell [here] was predicated on reduced Ozempic sales & significantly below cons. forecasts, the magnitude of the ’25 profit warning has led to a material reset of our forecasts & we are now >30% below cons. EBIT in 2029. We expect the debate to now focus on valuation given we model just 5% 25-30 CAGR sales growth & sema accounts for 60% of 2030 EBIT. Worryingly, our EPS declines in 2027 having cut our sales forecasts by 4-9% & EBIT forecasts by 6%-13%. We are now 27% below...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Mounjaro Efficacy Slowing GLP-1 Growth (SELL, TP DKK350, 11pgs)
With US GLP-1 volume growth in diabetes stalling to just 5%, we examine the evidence that Mounjaro’s high efficacy has resulted in a surge of patients getting to HbA1c goal & discontinuing treatment. We analyse the literature & clinical data that shows that GLP-1 market growth could slow dramatically for years to come given Mounjaro is now half the US GLP-1 volume in diabetics. We expect Mounjaro’s NBRx share to be >70% by end 2026, likely resulting in further downgrades to Ozempic consensus. Ba...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Ozempic Outlook Worsening (SELL, TP DKK350, 26pgs)
US Ozempic scrips have continued to deteriorate, resulting in further downgrades to our estimates. We are 9% below US Ozempic cons. in 2025, 24% below in 2026 & 56% below by 2030. Were consensus to fall to our forecasts, we show this would reduce EPS by 4% this year and 15% from 2027 (assuming minimal cost savings). NRx is now declining, yet cons. assumes 3% H225 sales growth despite an expected >MSD price cut. The mid-point of guidance is at risk in our view given the deterioration in Ozempic m...
- Mark Thomas
- Mike Foster
- Nigel Hawkins
The Hardman & Co Monthly: July 2025
The risk of power cuts in the UK, for a variety of reasons, remains real. Low plant margins (i.e. limited spare capacity at peak) in the UK are obvious enough. However, the events of 28 April 2025 ‒ when Spain, Portugal and parts of France were plunged into lengthy power outages ‒ were very disconcerting. A recent Spanish government report has now placed much of the blame on the national system operator, the Redeia-owned Red Electrica. There was some criticism, too, of unnamed private sector gen...
- Mark Thomas
- Mike Foster
- Richard Jeans
Hardman & Co Monthly: June 2025
Feature article: Addressing the “risk off” investment challenge As we approach mid-2025, life remains challenging for many UK companies and their shareholders, and ‒ as a broad generalisation – consensus suggests little will change in the foreseeable future. So, are we now facing a real risk of the UK economy stagnating due to lack of funding? If that is the case, who is going to take the initiative and avert such a crisis? Business life must continue, despite the macro environment providing ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Negative Mix A Major Concern (SELL, TP DKK350, 15pgs)
We have rebuilt our Wegovy & Ozempic models for volume, price & mix to account for the divergent dynamics by channel. We show that 1) Ozempic volume forecasts remain too high and NRx has now turned negative, 2) Mix is set to worsen dramatically for Ozempic such that 2027 group EPS growth is 0% on our numbers, 3) The Wegovy inflection implied in our forecasts is likely best case scenario w.r.t compounding & CVS, yet we are at the low end of guidance. We are modestly below cons. sales in 2025&26 w...
- Richard Jeans
accesso Technology Group: 30 new venue contracts and pipeline remains ...
FY24 results, released last month, were in line with its January trading update. Revenues grew by 5.3%, when excluding discontinued components, while cash EBITDA eased by 3.4% to $22.8m to reflect a margin of 15.0%. Management is cautious on the near-term outlook due to uncertainties over the impact of trade wars on consumer sentiment. We have cut our revenue forecasts by 4% in FY25 and 6% in FY26 to reflect this uncertainty. However, costs also fall and FY26 adjusted EPS moves higher in USD te...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
MFN Drug Pricing - Impact and Implementation (Thematic, 5pgs)
Ahead of today’s signing of an Executive Order to introduce a Most Favoured Nation approach to drug pricing in the US, we show that net pricing in the EU is c.50% lower than in the US & which companies have most to lose from MFN. We also show that, in reality,
- Brian Moretta
- Jason Streets
- Mark Thomas
Hardman & Co Monthly: May 2025
Feature article: Attractive asset managers - Radical derating presumes things only get worse The UK asset management sector has been significantly derated over the past couple of years. It has faced the dual problem of a shift towards passives and to private assets and away from traditional listed equities and bonds. However, the sector’s assets haven’t collapsed; its margins have proved relatively robust and its profits fairly stable, even against all the rising costs. The clear implication, ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Worrying Times (SELL, TP DKK350 [460], 13pgs)
Following the orfo’ P3 data, latest Wegovy scrips & rapidly faltering Ozempic growth, we conduct a wholesale review of our obesity market model, Wegovy & Ozempic scrip models & our Novo financial model. The outcome of this analysis is that we downgrade our 2030 sales by 20% and EPS by 24%. We now assume Novo only achieve a 25% obesity market share by 2030. We are 19% below consensus sales & 23% below EPS in 2030. We also provide a detailed hypothesis as to why US obesity demand growth is so lack...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Broad Tariffs are Highly Unlikely (7pgs)
Following a number of recent events, we discuss in this note what we think is the most likely outcome for the Pharma industry. We show that broad based tariffs on drugs are highly unlikely, that even if it were to happen, the impact of a 20% tariff is
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Transfer Pricing Could Negate Impact (6pgs)
We show that Big Pharma would not have to shift a single element of supply chain to the US and can mitigate most, if not all, of a 20% tariff on drugs, just by changing their transfer pricing strategy. In a scenario where the US corporation tax rate falls to 15% but tariffs are 20%, we show that Big Pharma profits would be unchanged, while the US government tax take would more than double. The losers would be low tax jurisdictions like Ireland, but they would get to keep their manufacturing base...
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2025
Feature article: 2024 pharma statistics An efficient reporting system has seen all the listed multinational pharmaceutical companies announce results for 2024, which has given us the opportunity to update our industry statistics and drug database. This report provides the first snapshot of global pharmaceutical market growth plus the global and US company rankings for 2024. The year was characterised by 9.2% underlying (ex-COVID-19) growth. Much of the growth was driven by recently launched ant...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo Nordisk - Cut to Sell - The Wood for The Trees (TP DKK 460)
Whilst the Wegovy scrips are scrutinised on literally a daily basis, US Ozempic softness seems to have been ignored despite Ozempic being 2x bigger than Wegovy in terms of global sales. New analysis makes us more concerned about Ozempic 2025 sales, than Wegovy. We are now 8% below the mid-point of 2025 guidance on sales & EBIT. We are 40% below consensus by 2030 on Ozempic sales, which could translate to a 16% cut to cons. group EBIT in 2030. We cut our group sales forecasts by 6-10% and EBIT by...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma - 5 Reasons for Further Re-rating (Thematic, 42pgs)
Given the macro backdrop & our evidence in this note that Pharma can sustain faster than expected growth for the next decade, we believe investors should add to their Pharma positions. 2025 is the biggest year for pipeline readouts in recent history and we expect this to catalyse a re-rating. We show that 1) Pipelines are very robust, 2) The market underestimates the size of the “monster” blockbusters that account for 14% of all drugs, 3) 15% of 2030 sales are “generic resistant” due to the moda...
- Mark Thomas
- Nigel Hawkins
Hardman & Co Monthly: March 2025
In this month's feature article, we review the energy situation in the UK. On the domestic front, Ofgem has recently announced the new price cap figure of £1,849 for a typical household’s annual use of gas and electricity; this figure represents an increase of 6.4% over the January-March 2025 price cap. UK energy policy has changed of late, following the election of a Labour government last summer. The quest for Net Zero by 2030 – a hardly realistic target – is now a priority. Rightly or wrong...
- Richard Jeans
accesso Technology Group (ACSO): We expect revenue growth to accelerat...
In this note, we review the prospects for accesso ahead of the final results in April. The January update was reassuring, with revenue of ca.$152m ahead of our $150m forecast and the ca.15% cash EBITDA margin well ahead of the 13.2% forecast. Conservatively, we maintained our FY25 and FY26 forecast. However, as accesso is a growth technology company with a leading market position, we expect revenues to gradually accelerate from 6% in FY25E into the high single digits, and margins to rise as the...
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