reports
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Collapsing Wegovy Prices is Bullish (BUY, TP DKK 1150, 16 pgs)
In this deep-dive, we show that despite our 2027 Wegovy price of just $200/mth in the US, we are ~20% above consensus on Wegovy & ~30% above cons. on Novo’s Obesity portfolio in 2030. We show why we expect pricing to collapse but that market fears on pricing are far too pessimistic. We believe Wegovy will become the US market leader by volume and benefit from step edits from 2027 onwards. We model Commercial & Medicare channels separately for both price & volume & also show compelling evidence t...
- Brian Moretta
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
Hardman & Co Monthly: September 2024
Feature article: The Tiktok generation are becoming “renegade” investors - How Gen Z’s investing habits differ from past generations As the landscape of investing evolves, a new generation is stepping onto the stage with fresh perspectives and unique approaches that are reshaping financial markets. At Hardman & Co, we’ve always been committed to understanding these shifts, and this month’s article delves into the rapidly changing ways in which Gen Z interacts with investment information and ma...
Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 15 August 2024
15th August 2024 * A corporate client of Hybridan LLP ** Arranged by type of listing and date of announcement *** Alphabetically arranged **** Potential means Intention to Float (ITF) has been announced, or it is a rumour Dish of the day Admissions: None Delistings: Tertre Rouge Assets Plc (TRA.L) has delisted from the Standard Segment of the Main Market. What’s baking in the oven? ** Reverse Takeovers: Earnz plc (EARN.L) is an AIM Rule 15 cash shell, which is required to make an acquisition or ...
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
- Nigel Hawkins
Hardman & Co Monthly: August 2024
Feature article: Solid IICs, cash-consolidating REIFs Since the beginning of 2024, the share prices of Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs) have generally remained lacklustre, failing to recover from the losses experienced in 2023. A significant factor contributing to this trend has been the sharp rise in interest rates since 2021, which has negatively impacted the sector due to the increased yields on “risk-free” 10-year gilts. The recent...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Sema Likely to Work in Alzheimer’s (BUY, TP DKK1150 [1100], 11 ...
New analysis of 6 studies shows strong & conclusive evidence that GLP-1 use reduces Alzheimer’s (AD) symptoms, in our view. Novo are trialling oral sema (14mg) in AD, which is due to read out in Sept ’25. Following our analysis, we now assume a 70% chance of success for this trial, which is obviously very high for an AD P3 trial. We show that peak sales could be $10bn even though we assume $150/mth in the US. Furthermore, due to complex manufacturing, those sales could be much more durable. If w...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Obesity Market Deep-Dive - Part 1: Fragmentation Underestimated
In the 1st of a 3-part series, we show that the obesity market is set to become incredibly complex, with the current duopoly to be weakened, creating several investment opportunities over the coming years. We expect >15 drugs to launch by 2027, with >5 oral & >10 injectable, with >5 different mechanisms, from ~5 different companies. This fragmentation will create much more dynamism than currently assumed by the market. The statin market provides significant learnings for this fragmentation. We s...
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
- Mike Foster
Hardman & Co Monthly: July 2024
Feature article: UK life sciences needs more local institutional support to survive. For two years running, the Hardman & Co Healthcare index has declined, underperforming both the FTSE 100 and the FTSE All-Share indices. This is quite unusual for healthcare stocks. Apart from the general economic influences, which have made institutions more risk-averse, there was a common knowledge that several companies were in need of additional working capital; so, share prices were marked down in anticipa...
Q&A on accesso Technology Group (ACSO): Leading the way in leisure ind...
Hardman & Co Research Q&A on accesso Technology Group (ACSO): Leading the way in leisure industry solutions 01-Jul-2024 / 10:38 GMT/BST The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Analyst interview | Technology Q&A on accesso Technology Group (ACSO) | Leading the way in leisure industry solutions Accesso Technology (ACSO) is the topic of conversation when Hardman & Co analyst Richard Jeans joins DirectorsTalk Interviews. Richard Jeans offers a comprehensive overview of accesso Technology Group, a leading provider of innovative solutions to the globa...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Thematic Research - Quantifying The Impact From Part D Reform
In 2025, Big Pharma will be exposed to further US drug pricing reform as a result of the IRA act. This is the final big change to play out and we calculate there is the potential for a mid-single digit EBIT impact for some companies, but there is material heterogeneity in terms of the magnitude of the impact. There is also the potential for upside for Novo & LLY. However, given the significant complexity in the reimburse-ment changes & in computing the current sales in Medicare Part D, we are re...
- Richard Jeans
Initiation of coverage: accesso Technology Group (ACSO) - Unique solut...
accesso provides technology solutions to the global leisure and attractions industry, servicing more than 1,200 venues across 34 countries. While the share price slumped from late 2018 and bottomed during the pandemic, the group is now on a new footing. Following a five-year break, the company has made four acquisitions to help drive fresh momentum. These acquisitions add functional breadth to the offering as well as increased geographical spread. The company has a unique business profile and a ...
Initiation of Coverage on accesso Technology Group (ACSO): Unique solu...
Hardman & Co Research Initiation of Coverage on accesso Technology Group (ACSO): Unique solutions provider to global leisure industry 03-Jun-2024 / 16:39 GMT/BST The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Hardman & Co Research – Initiation of Coverage – accesso Technology Group (ACSO): Unique solutions provider to global leisure industry accesso provides technology solutions to the global leisure and attractions industry, servicing more than 1,200 venues across 34 countries. While the share price slumped from late 2018 and bottomed during the pand...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Wegovy Stockpiling Almost $5bn (BUY, TP DKK1100, 5 pgs)
Our latest analysis shows that Novo could drive material consensus upgrades by starting to release a potential ~$5bn Wegovy stockpile. With Novo restricting Wegovy supply between Nov-21 & Dec-22, and then from May-23 onwards, they have built up a substantial stockpile of product, in our view. Our analysis of their inventory shows there is likely as much as $5bn of finished or close-to-finished Wegovy product at current US net prices. Our analysis of the supply chain and distribution strategy exp...
Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 27 Mar 24
27th March 2024 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment object...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - 8 Reasons It’s Going to DKK1100 (BUY, TP DKK1100 [850], 18 pgs)
Novo are just too good to bet against. We now increase our 2030 obesity franchise sales to $50bn and most importantly show that sema’ is only 27% of group sales in 2031. Therefore, if sema’ sales halve by 2034, it’s only a ~5% p.a. headwind to group sales 2032-34. Greater visibility on the post-sema outlook is a strong reason for the Novo multiple to be retained into 2025. We see 8 reasons why Novo will hit DKK1100 in the next year, driven by EPS upgrades, increased supply & P3 readouts. We see ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma - 2024 Year Ahead (28 pgs)
For EU Pharma, 2024 is likely to be characterised by EPS revisions, a handful of new launches & sluggish EPS growth for a number of names. The relative lack of pipeline catalysts makes forecasting sales and EPS much more important than for 2023. We identify 4 key issues to watch for: 1) Medicaid AMP cap removal, 2) Higher tax costs, 3) Higher debt costs & 4) a handful of very specific company issues that could make a material difference to performance (Novo: Wegovy supply, GSK: litigation, SAN: ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Wegovy – 3 More Sources of Upside (BUY, TP DKK850 [800], 15 pgs...
Following the SELECT readout, we are increasingly asked by investors what is next for the Novo investment thesis. We now identify 3 sources of upside to Wegovy consensus forecasts & increase our peak sales to $28bn. We show that, 1) Medicaid is worth $6bn in peak sales & is largely ignored, 2) The lack of Medicare access is likely to have the perverse positive impact of raising Wegovy’s net price & the IRA now has a smaller impact, & 3) Supply into 2024 is likely to be better than consensus is m...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Thematic - Obesity Drugs Won’t Change The World
Despite our bullish stance on Novo & the obesity drugs, in this note we aim to show the minimal impact they will have on the broader economy despite recent fears that new obesity drugs will have a material negative impact on a broad range of sectors. We show that these claims are well overblown in the near-term, with only 0.15% of the US population currently on anti-obesity drugs (AODs). Our forecasts, which point to a $50bn US market by 2030, imply that
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - $10bn Wegovy in 2024 (BUY, TP DKK800 [750], 13 pgs)
Using a similar scrip based analysis that led us to be considerably above consensus at the beginning of 2023, we show consensus is $3bn too low on ‘24 US Wegovy sales. This would drive an ~11% consensus EBIT upgrade next year. We show Novo’s supply chain can comfortably deliver 50k new patient starts per week through Q2-Q424, generating $9.6bn in US Wegovy sales, driving our $10bn Global Wegovy sales forecast for 2024. We now forecast 31% sales & 38% EPS growth in 2024 despite assuming $1bn high...
Hybridan Small Cap Feast - 18 Oct 23
18th October 2023 @HybridanLLP Status of this Note and Disclaimer This document has been issued to you by Hybridan LLP for information purposes only and should not be construed in any circumstances as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy any security or other financial instrument, nor shall it, or the fact of its distribution, form the basis of, or be relied upon in connection with, any contract relating to such action. This document has no regard for the specific investment obje...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
NOVO - Wegovy Peak Sales now $25bn (BUY, TP DKK 1500)
In this note, we increase our Wegovy peak by $10bn following SELECT, include 70% a chance of Medicare reimbursement, include the IRA impact in 2027 on Wegovy, show that SELECT makes Wegovy value for money, increase Wegovy stay time, we expect Wegovy to be added to AHA guidelines & thus anti-obesity drugs to be legitimised and finally, we increase our PT to DKK1500. The inclusion of Medicare adds $9bn to our peak sales and we cut our US price per scrip by 60% by 2028. Our highly conservative assu...
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