reports
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Ozempic Outlook Worsening (SELL, TP DKK350, 26pgs)
US Ozempic scrips have continued to deteriorate, resulting in further downgrades to our estimates. We are 9% below US Ozempic cons. in 2025, 24% below in 2026 & 56% below by 2030. Were consensus to fall to our forecasts, we show this would reduce EPS by 4% this year and 15% from 2027 (assuming minimal cost savings). NRx is now declining, yet cons. assumes 3% H225 sales growth despite an expected >MSD price cut. The mid-point of guidance is at risk in our view given the deterioration in Ozempic m...
- Mark Thomas
- Mike Foster
- Nigel Hawkins
The Hardman & Co Monthly: July 2025
The risk of power cuts in the UK, for a variety of reasons, remains real. Low plant margins (i.e. limited spare capacity at peak) in the UK are obvious enough. However, the events of 28 April 2025 ‒ when Spain, Portugal and parts of France were plunged into lengthy power outages ‒ were very disconcerting. A recent Spanish government report has now placed much of the blame on the national system operator, the Redeia-owned Red Electrica. There was some criticism, too, of unnamed private sector gen...
- Mark Thomas
- Mike Foster
- Richard Jeans
Hardman & Co Monthly: June 2025
Feature article: Addressing the “risk off” investment challenge As we approach mid-2025, life remains challenging for many UK companies and their shareholders, and ‒ as a broad generalisation – consensus suggests little will change in the foreseeable future. So, are we now facing a real risk of the UK economy stagnating due to lack of funding? If that is the case, who is going to take the initiative and avert such a crisis? Business life must continue, despite the macro environment providing ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Negative Mix A Major Concern (SELL, TP DKK350, 15pgs)
We have rebuilt our Wegovy & Ozempic models for volume, price & mix to account for the divergent dynamics by channel. We show that 1) Ozempic volume forecasts remain too high and NRx has now turned negative, 2) Mix is set to worsen dramatically for Ozempic such that 2027 group EPS growth is 0% on our numbers, 3) The Wegovy inflection implied in our forecasts is likely best case scenario w.r.t compounding & CVS, yet we are at the low end of guidance. We are modestly below cons. sales in 2025&26 w...
- Richard Jeans
accesso Technology Group: 30 new venue contracts and pipeline remains ...
FY24 results, released last month, were in line with its January trading update. Revenues grew by 5.3%, when excluding discontinued components, while cash EBITDA eased by 3.4% to $22.8m to reflect a margin of 15.0%. Management is cautious on the near-term outlook due to uncertainties over the impact of trade wars on consumer sentiment. We have cut our revenue forecasts by 4% in FY25 and 6% in FY26 to reflect this uncertainty. However, costs also fall and FY26 adjusted EPS moves higher in USD te...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
MFN Drug Pricing - Impact and Implementation (Thematic, 5pgs)
Ahead of today’s signing of an Executive Order to introduce a Most Favoured Nation approach to drug pricing in the US, we show that net pricing in the EU is c.50% lower than in the US & which companies have most to lose from MFN. We also show that, in reality,
- Brian Moretta
- Jason Streets
- Mark Thomas
Hardman & Co Monthly: May 2025
Feature article: Attractive asset managers - Radical derating presumes things only get worse The UK asset management sector has been significantly derated over the past couple of years. It has faced the dual problem of a shift towards passives and to private assets and away from traditional listed equities and bonds. However, the sector’s assets haven’t collapsed; its margins have proved relatively robust and its profits fairly stable, even against all the rising costs. The clear implication, ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Worrying Times (SELL, TP DKK350 [460], 13pgs)
Following the orfo’ P3 data, latest Wegovy scrips & rapidly faltering Ozempic growth, we conduct a wholesale review of our obesity market model, Wegovy & Ozempic scrip models & our Novo financial model. The outcome of this analysis is that we downgrade our 2030 sales by 20% and EPS by 24%. We now assume Novo only achieve a 25% obesity market share by 2030. We are 19% below consensus sales & 23% below EPS in 2030. We also provide a detailed hypothesis as to why US obesity demand growth is so lack...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Broad Tariffs are Highly Unlikely (7pgs)
Following a number of recent events, we discuss in this note what we think is the most likely outcome for the Pharma industry. We show that broad based tariffs on drugs are highly unlikely, that even if it were to happen, the impact of a 20% tariff is
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Transfer Pricing Could Negate Impact (6pgs)
We show that Big Pharma would not have to shift a single element of supply chain to the US and can mitigate most, if not all, of a 20% tariff on drugs, just by changing their transfer pricing strategy. In a scenario where the US corporation tax rate falls to 15% but tariffs are 20%, we show that Big Pharma profits would be unchanged, while the US government tax take would more than double. The losers would be low tax jurisdictions like Ireland, but they would get to keep their manufacturing base...
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
Hardman & Co Monthly: April 2025
Feature article: 2024 pharma statistics An efficient reporting system has seen all the listed multinational pharmaceutical companies announce results for 2024, which has given us the opportunity to update our industry statistics and drug database. This report provides the first snapshot of global pharmaceutical market growth plus the global and US company rankings for 2024. The year was characterised by 9.2% underlying (ex-COVID-19) growth. Much of the growth was driven by recently launched ant...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo Nordisk - Cut to Sell - The Wood for The Trees (TP DKK 460)
Whilst the Wegovy scrips are scrutinised on literally a daily basis, US Ozempic softness seems to have been ignored despite Ozempic being 2x bigger than Wegovy in terms of global sales. New analysis makes us more concerned about Ozempic 2025 sales, than Wegovy. We are now 8% below the mid-point of 2025 guidance on sales & EBIT. We are 40% below consensus by 2030 on Ozempic sales, which could translate to a 16% cut to cons. group EBIT in 2030. We cut our group sales forecasts by 6-10% and EBIT by...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma - 5 Reasons for Further Re-rating (Thematic, 42pgs)
Given the macro backdrop & our evidence in this note that Pharma can sustain faster than expected growth for the next decade, we believe investors should add to their Pharma positions. 2025 is the biggest year for pipeline readouts in recent history and we expect this to catalyse a re-rating. We show that 1) Pipelines are very robust, 2) The market underestimates the size of the “monster” blockbusters that account for 14% of all drugs, 3) 15% of 2030 sales are “generic resistant” due to the moda...
- Mark Thomas
- Nigel Hawkins
Hardman & Co Monthly: March 2025
In this month's feature article, we review the energy situation in the UK. On the domestic front, Ofgem has recently announced the new price cap figure of £1,849 for a typical household’s annual use of gas and electricity; this figure represents an increase of 6.4% over the January-March 2025 price cap. UK energy policy has changed of late, following the election of a Labour government last summer. The quest for Net Zero by 2030 – a hardly realistic target – is now a priority. Rightly or wrong...
- Richard Jeans
accesso Technology Group (ACSO): We expect revenue growth to accelerat...
In this note, we review the prospects for accesso ahead of the final results in April. The January update was reassuring, with revenue of ca.$152m ahead of our $150m forecast and the ca.15% cash EBITDA margin well ahead of the 13.2% forecast. Conservatively, we maintained our FY25 and FY26 forecast. However, as accesso is a growth technology company with a leading market position, we expect revenues to gradually accelerate from 6% in FY25E into the high single digits, and margins to rise as the...
Hardman & Co publication on accesso Technology Group (ACSO): We expect...
Hardman & Co Research Hardman & Co publication on accesso Technology Group (ACSO): We expect revenue growth to accelerate 18-Feb-2025 / 16:05 GMT/BST The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement. Hardman & Co Research on accesso Technology Group (ACSO): We expect revenue growth to accelerate In this note, we review the prospects for accesso ahead of the final results in April. The January update was reassuring, with revenue of ca.$152m ahead of our $150m forecast and the ca.15% cash EBITDA margin well ahead of the 13.2% forecast. Conservatively, we m...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Cagri Data Makes Sense (BUY, TP DKK880, 11pgs)
We have conducted a deep-dive on the available literature & the CagriSema data and show that the inverse dose response is exactly what we would expect to happen and is what was seen in previous Novo studies. In fact, if we were to see the same cut of the data in REDEFINE4, we would fully expect tirzepatide to show the same thing. There is sufficient data (both clinical & in animal models) that shows that there is nothing untoward in the CagriSema data. Crucially, as we learn more about the biolo...
- Keith Hiscock
- Mark Thomas
Hardman & Co Monthly: February 2025
Feature article: The October 2024 Budget - We got it wrong By Keith Hiscock, CEO at Hardman & Co In this month's feature article, we review the effects of the 2024 Budget and consider what might happen in the coming months. Our Hardman Monthly of October 2024 looked forward to the first Labour Budget for 14 years. The main theme was that, because the new Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, had ruled out increases in taxes on ‘working people’, investors would bear the brunt of any tax increases to fill ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo Nordisk - Amycretin Data to Drive Re-Rating (BUY, TP DKK 880 [800...
After the disappointing CagriSema data, Novo shares de-rated in large part due to growing concerns about the sema patent expiry & ability to sustain growth beyond 2031. Whilst we did not share these concerns & are not worried about declines post the sema LOE for a multitude of reasons, we are aware that we are in the minority. However, with the amycretin data showing best-in class weight loss, Novo’s ability to compete with LLY, switch patients from Wegovy & deliver growth beyond 2031 is now muc...
- Brian Moretta
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
Hardman & Co Monthly: January 2025
Feature article: Hardman & Co Healthcare Index, 2024 – Tough year for Life Sciences By Dr Martin Hall The main function of the HHI is to monitor the performance, and to highlight the attractiveness, of life sciences investments over the long term, and to try to identify those stocks that have disruptive technologies that consistently allow them to outperform both the index and the markets. Many of the 53 constituents of the index are high-risk, with micro-capitalisations and a long way from pro...
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DEMG DELTEX MEDICAL GROUP PLC
TSTL TRISTEL PLC
TRX TISSUE REGENIX GROUP
EKF EKF DIAGNOSTICS HOLDINGS
ODX OMEGA DIAGNOSTICS
AVCT AVACTA GROUP
PHP PRIMARY HEALTH PROPERTIES PLC
AGY ALLERGY THERAPEUTICS PLC
ARBB ARBUTHNOT BANKING GROUP
APH ALLIANCE PHARMA PLC
FUM FUTURA MEDICAL PLC
ALNOV NOVACYT SAS
VLG VENTURE LIFE GROUP
RECI REAL ESTATE CREDIT INVESTMENTS
IMM IMMUPHARMA
PRM PROTEOME SCIENCES PLC
ACSO ACCESSO TECHNOLOGY GROUP
GNS GENUS PLC
SUN SURGICAL INNOVATIONS GROUP PLC
AMS ADVANCED MEDICAL SOLUTIONS GROUP PLC
OMG OXFORD METRICS
EAH ECO ANIMAL HEALTH GROUP
JDG JUDGES SCIENTIFIC
VTAS VOLTA FINANCE (GBP)
SDI SDI GROUP
HVO HVIVO
INDV INDIVIOR PLC
VAL VALIRX
FARON FARON PHARMACEUTICALS OY
ONC ONCIMMUNE HOLDINGS
STX SHIELD THERAPEUTICS
CSN CHESNARA PLC
SNG SYNAIRGEN PLC
IPO IP GROUP
HAT H&T GROUP
SCLP SCANCELL HOLDINGS
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CIR CIRCASSIA GROUP
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FAB FUSION ANTIBODIES
IXI IXICO
OXB OXFORD BIOMEDICA PLC
ABDX ABINGDON HEALTH
IMCR IMMUNOCORE HOLDINGS ADS
POLX POLAREAN IMAGING
AREC ARECOR THERAPEUTICS
ONT OXFORD NANOPORE TECHNOLOGIES PLC
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