reports
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Intron Health - AI Impact on Pharma - Thematic (20pgs) - Winners/Loser...
Our Big Pharma AI thesis is the result of ~25 interviews with industry execs & >100hrs of research. We show ~10% of OPEX could be saved by AI within a few years & conclude the recent sector rally is wholly justified & could run further. We assess the winners & losers from AI adoption and discuss in detail some of the short, mid & long-term consequences. We evaluate the various AI use cases and quantify the potential benefit they may have. We break down SG&A & R&D activities & show where AI is im...
- Brian Moretta
- Mark Thomas
- Mike Foster
Hardman & Co Monthly: March 2026
Feature article: Tech sector outlook | Small cap finding support at COVID-19 levels The past year has been a challenging period for UK technology stocks. The sector has diverged from buoyant UK blue chips due to the perceived threats of AI-induced disruption. This underperformance has been regardless of generally positive trading news, and larger cap software & services companies have performed significantly worse than their smaller brethren. Takeovers have continued to pick off the remainin...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Richard Jeans
accesso Technology Group (ACSO): New payments’ strategy unveiled
accesso has taken its payments’ strategy to the next level in selecting Adyen, the Dutch-based payments company, to be its long-term global financial technology platform. The platform will be white-labelled and enable accesso to offer integrated embedded payments’ capabilities across all of its products. Consequently, accesso will be able to increase wallet share from both existing and new clients. As present, accesso supports more than $5bn in annual transaction volume. We will next review our ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Mark Thomas
- Mike Foster
- Nigel Hawkins
The Monthly: February 2026
Stormy times at present – a sunnier outlook? Undoubtedly, 2025 was a difficult year for Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs). Investors have seen underperformance against the FTSE 100, widening NAV discounts, several delistings, managed wind-downs (MWDs) and regulatory issues both in the UK and in the US. The question for investors is: where do we go from here? On the one hand, yields for some REIFS are well over twice those of 10-year gil...
- Mark Thomas
- Martin Hall
Hardman & Co Monthly: January 2026
This month’s feature article is the Hardman & Co Healthcare Index written by Dr Martin Hall, Head of Life Sciences at Hardman & Co. The main function of the HHI is to monitor the performance, and to highlight the attractiveness, of life sciences investments over the long term, and to try to identify those stocks that have disruptive technologies that consistently allow them to outperform both the index and the markets. Many of the 49 constituents of the index are high-risk, with micro-capitali...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Thematic - 2026 Outlook - "5 More Years" (55pgs)
For access to the full note, please contact Naresh Chouhan ( ) With EU Pharma (ex-Novo) now having reached decade high valuations vs EuroStoxx600, we believe the sector has broken out & the sustainability of the growth profile will now generate continued strong performance. Consensus 5yr sales & EPS CAGR’s stand at 4% & 7% for 15x 2026 PE. We show there is upside to this from underestimated pipelines where cons. rarely fully models “monster” drugs & from M&A which we expect to be strong at JPM ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Accesso Technology Group: 1 director
A director at Accesso Technology Group bought 150,000 shares at 350p and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Mark Thomas
- Yingheng Chen
Hardman & Co Monthly: November 2025
Feature article: Feeding the future The case for food system investment Megatrends, at a very basic level, dictate the “direction of travel” for economic, social and political activity; investments made on this basis will receive powerful trend support. Today, the transformation of the global food system represents one such structural force. As demographic expansion, rising income and growing climate pressure converge, food sustainability as a strategic, long-term investment theme is no longe...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Brian Moretta
- Mark Thomas
Hardman & Co Monthly: October 2025
Feature article: Building tomorrow’s AI: How the UK will become the global architect of Trustworthy Intelligence In this month’s feature article, Professor Andy Pardoe, Professor of AI and Chair of the Deep Tech Innovation Centre at the University of Warwick, gives his perspective on the artificial intelligence (AI) industry and how it is advancing at an unprecedented pace, outstripping anything witnessed in previous decades. For researchers, industry leaders and investors, understanding the la...
- Mark Thomas
- Nigel Hawkins
Hardman & Co Monthly: September 2025
Feature article: IICS/REIFS – NAV discounts and the ill wind from Denmark Since the start of 2024, the share prices of the eight Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and of the 18 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs) have been generally weak – and, conspicuously, have failed to recover the losses of 2023. Undoubtedly, high interest rates have undermined the sector – and there is no certainty that they will fall significantly. Not only has this situation adversely affected NAVs, b...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Upgrade to HOLD (PT DKK300, 8pgs)
With the orfo’ data being on the lower side of expectations, we upgrade to Hold as the narrative is likely to be dominated by the potential upside for Novo. However, we remain convinced that: 1) The obesity market is nowhere near as big as the market believes, 2) Ozempic no’s are far too high & 3) Margin forecasts need to fall. Cons’ Ozempic forecasts will take time to fall & we will likely need the IRA price in November to force consensus lower. Therefore, we see limited S-T downside to our DKK...
- Keith Hiscock
- Mark Thomas
Hardman & Co Monthly: August 2025
Feature article: Economic growth: Cry me a river The UK press and politicians are fixated on growth. The Labour Government came into office 12 months ago promising a new dawn. Its top priority was growth. Its manifesto, “Labour Party Manifesto 2024: Our plan to change Britain” devoted an entire chapter to “Kickstart economic growth”. In this article, we cover: ► Why growth is important ► The downside of growth ► What do politicians and markets mean by growth? ► Is growth in aggregate GDP th...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Oversize Downgrade - PT Cut to DKK300 (SELL, TP DKK300 [350], 8...
Whilst our downgrade to Sell [here] was predicated on reduced Ozempic sales & significantly below cons. forecasts, the magnitude of the ’25 profit warning has led to a material reset of our forecasts & we are now >30% below cons. EBIT in 2029. We expect the debate to now focus on valuation given we model just 5% 25-30 CAGR sales growth & sema accounts for 60% of 2030 EBIT. Worryingly, our EPS declines in 2027 having cut our sales forecasts by 4-9% & EBIT forecasts by 6%-13%. We are now 27% below...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Mounjaro Efficacy Slowing GLP-1 Growth (SELL, TP DKK350, 11pgs)
With US GLP-1 volume growth in diabetes stalling to just 5%, we examine the evidence that Mounjaro’s high efficacy has resulted in a surge of patients getting to HbA1c goal & discontinuing treatment. We analyse the literature & clinical data that shows that GLP-1 market growth could slow dramatically for years to come given Mounjaro is now half the US GLP-1 volume in diabetics. We expect Mounjaro’s NBRx share to be >70% by end 2026, likely resulting in further downgrades to Ozempic consensus. Ba...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Ozempic Outlook Worsening (SELL, TP DKK350, 26pgs)
US Ozempic scrips have continued to deteriorate, resulting in further downgrades to our estimates. We are 9% below US Ozempic cons. in 2025, 24% below in 2026 & 56% below by 2030. Were consensus to fall to our forecasts, we show this would reduce EPS by 4% this year and 15% from 2027 (assuming minimal cost savings). NRx is now declining, yet cons. assumes 3% H225 sales growth despite an expected >MSD price cut. The mid-point of guidance is at risk in our view given the deterioration in Ozempic m...
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