reports
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Accesso Technology Group: 1 director
A director at Accesso Technology Group bought 150,000 shares at 350p and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Mark Thomas
- Yingheng Chen
Hardman & Co Monthly: November 2025
Feature article: Feeding the future The case for food system investment Megatrends, at a very basic level, dictate the “direction of travel” for economic, social and political activity; investments made on this basis will receive powerful trend support. Today, the transformation of the global food system represents one such structural force. As demographic expansion, rising income and growing climate pressure converge, food sustainability as a strategic, long-term investment theme is no longe...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
- Brian Moretta
- Mark Thomas
Hardman & Co Monthly: October 2025
Feature article: Building tomorrow’s AI: How the UK will become the global architect of Trustworthy Intelligence In this month’s feature article, Professor Andy Pardoe, Professor of AI and Chair of the Deep Tech Innovation Centre at the University of Warwick, gives his perspective on the artificial intelligence (AI) industry and how it is advancing at an unprecedented pace, outstripping anything witnessed in previous decades. For researchers, industry leaders and investors, understanding the la...
- Mark Thomas
- Nigel Hawkins
Hardman & Co Monthly: September 2025
Feature article: IICS/REIFS – NAV discounts and the ill wind from Denmark Since the start of 2024, the share prices of the eight Infrastructure Investment Companies (IICs) and of the 18 Renewable Energy Infrastructure Funds (REIFs) have been generally weak – and, conspicuously, have failed to recover the losses of 2023. Undoubtedly, high interest rates have undermined the sector – and there is no certainty that they will fall significantly. Not only has this situation adversely affected NAVs, b...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Upgrade to HOLD (PT DKK300, 8pgs)
With the orfo’ data being on the lower side of expectations, we upgrade to Hold as the narrative is likely to be dominated by the potential upside for Novo. However, we remain convinced that: 1) The obesity market is nowhere near as big as the market believes, 2) Ozempic no’s are far too high & 3) Margin forecasts need to fall. Cons’ Ozempic forecasts will take time to fall & we will likely need the IRA price in November to force consensus lower. Therefore, we see limited S-T downside to our DKK...
- Keith Hiscock
- Mark Thomas
Hardman & Co Monthly: August 2025
Feature article: Economic growth: Cry me a river The UK press and politicians are fixated on growth. The Labour Government came into office 12 months ago promising a new dawn. Its top priority was growth. Its manifesto, “Labour Party Manifesto 2024: Our plan to change Britain” devoted an entire chapter to “Kickstart economic growth”. In this article, we cover: ► Why growth is important ► The downside of growth ► What do politicians and markets mean by growth? ► Is growth in aggregate GDP th...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Oversize Downgrade - PT Cut to DKK300 (SELL, TP DKK300 [350], 8...
Whilst our downgrade to Sell [here] was predicated on reduced Ozempic sales & significantly below cons. forecasts, the magnitude of the ’25 profit warning has led to a material reset of our forecasts & we are now >30% below cons. EBIT in 2029. We expect the debate to now focus on valuation given we model just 5% 25-30 CAGR sales growth & sema accounts for 60% of 2030 EBIT. Worryingly, our EPS declines in 2027 having cut our sales forecasts by 4-9% & EBIT forecasts by 6%-13%. We are now 27% below...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Mounjaro Efficacy Slowing GLP-1 Growth (SELL, TP DKK350, 11pgs)
With US GLP-1 volume growth in diabetes stalling to just 5%, we examine the evidence that Mounjaro’s high efficacy has resulted in a surge of patients getting to HbA1c goal & discontinuing treatment. We analyse the literature & clinical data that shows that GLP-1 market growth could slow dramatically for years to come given Mounjaro is now half the US GLP-1 volume in diabetics. We expect Mounjaro’s NBRx share to be >70% by end 2026, likely resulting in further downgrades to Ozempic consensus. Ba...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Ozempic Outlook Worsening (SELL, TP DKK350, 26pgs)
US Ozempic scrips have continued to deteriorate, resulting in further downgrades to our estimates. We are 9% below US Ozempic cons. in 2025, 24% below in 2026 & 56% below by 2030. Were consensus to fall to our forecasts, we show this would reduce EPS by 4% this year and 15% from 2027 (assuming minimal cost savings). NRx is now declining, yet cons. assumes 3% H225 sales growth despite an expected >MSD price cut. The mid-point of guidance is at risk in our view given the deterioration in Ozempic m...
- Mark Thomas
- Mike Foster
- Nigel Hawkins
The Hardman & Co Monthly: July 2025
The risk of power cuts in the UK, for a variety of reasons, remains real. Low plant margins (i.e. limited spare capacity at peak) in the UK are obvious enough. However, the events of 28 April 2025 ‒ when Spain, Portugal and parts of France were plunged into lengthy power outages ‒ were very disconcerting. A recent Spanish government report has now placed much of the blame on the national system operator, the Redeia-owned Red Electrica. There was some criticism, too, of unnamed private sector gen...
- Mark Thomas
- Mike Foster
- Richard Jeans
Hardman & Co Monthly: June 2025
Feature article: Addressing the “risk off” investment challenge As we approach mid-2025, life remains challenging for many UK companies and their shareholders, and ‒ as a broad generalisation – consensus suggests little will change in the foreseeable future. So, are we now facing a real risk of the UK economy stagnating due to lack of funding? If that is the case, who is going to take the initiative and avert such a crisis? Business life must continue, despite the macro environment providing ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Negative Mix A Major Concern (SELL, TP DKK350, 15pgs)
We have rebuilt our Wegovy & Ozempic models for volume, price & mix to account for the divergent dynamics by channel. We show that 1) Ozempic volume forecasts remain too high and NRx has now turned negative, 2) Mix is set to worsen dramatically for Ozempic such that 2027 group EPS growth is 0% on our numbers, 3) The Wegovy inflection implied in our forecasts is likely best case scenario w.r.t compounding & CVS, yet we are at the low end of guidance. We are modestly below cons. sales in 2025&26 w...
- Richard Jeans
accesso Technology Group: 30 new venue contracts and pipeline remains ...
FY24 results, released last month, were in line with its January trading update. Revenues grew by 5.3%, when excluding discontinued components, while cash EBITDA eased by 3.4% to $22.8m to reflect a margin of 15.0%. Management is cautious on the near-term outlook due to uncertainties over the impact of trade wars on consumer sentiment. We have cut our revenue forecasts by 4% in FY25 and 6% in FY26 to reflect this uncertainty. However, costs also fall and FY26 adjusted EPS moves higher in USD te...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
MFN Drug Pricing - Impact and Implementation (Thematic, 5pgs)
Ahead of today’s signing of an Executive Order to introduce a Most Favoured Nation approach to drug pricing in the US, we show that net pricing in the EU is c.50% lower than in the US & which companies have most to lose from MFN. We also show that, in reality,
- Brian Moretta
- Jason Streets
- Mark Thomas
Hardman & Co Monthly: May 2025
Feature article: Attractive asset managers - Radical derating presumes things only get worse The UK asset management sector has been significantly derated over the past couple of years. It has faced the dual problem of a shift towards passives and to private assets and away from traditional listed equities and bonds. However, the sector’s assets haven’t collapsed; its margins have proved relatively robust and its profits fairly stable, even against all the rising costs. The clear implication, ...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Worrying Times (SELL, TP DKK350 [460], 13pgs)
Following the orfo’ P3 data, latest Wegovy scrips & rapidly faltering Ozempic growth, we conduct a wholesale review of our obesity market model, Wegovy & Ozempic scrip models & our Novo financial model. The outcome of this analysis is that we downgrade our 2030 sales by 20% and EPS by 24%. We now assume Novo only achieve a 25% obesity market share by 2030. We are 19% below consensus sales & 23% below EPS in 2030. We also provide a detailed hypothesis as to why US obesity demand growth is so lack...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Broad Tariffs are Highly Unlikely (7pgs)
Following a number of recent events, we discuss in this note what we think is the most likely outcome for the Pharma industry. We show that broad based tariffs on drugs are highly unlikely, that even if it were to happen, the impact of a 20% tariff is
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