A director at Salus sold 10 shares at 1,990.000EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Cl...
Luka Koper: According to the President of the Management Board of Luka Koper, Dimitrij Zadel, the company needs a second tier between DivaÄa and Koper, and in addition, a lot of investments have already begun so that they can follow the growth of cargo. This week the government confirmed the investment program for the second tier, the construction of which is estimated at EUR 1.2bn. The project is supposed to be paid by user charges. Namely, since January, the state has already started to c...
Trading in 2018:The value of the LJSE index increased for the third year in a row and exceeded 900 points for the first time in 8 years. The SBITOP index ended the year valued at 805.06 points. The month with the most trades was May due to the acquisition of Gorenje. A fall increase in interest for Slovenian shares was due to the first listing of a new share after more than 10 years. Those were shares of Nova Ljubljanska banka. In 2018 the most traded shares were shares of Krka, with which 25.6%...
This week was marked by publications of the business plans for 2019 and estimatedbusiness performance for 2018. Among them were Luka Koper, Zavarovalnica, Triglav,Mercator, Unior and Salus. More details on page 2.Luka Koper:Results for 2018 will be mainly in line with our expectations, while 2019 projectionsare below our estimates. EBITDA is therefore 5% below our plans, EBIT 7% and netincome 10% below our plans. Margins in 2019 will therefore fall to 5-year low. Afterattaining all the necessary...
Cinkarna Celje published the summary of business plan for 2019 and preliminary business results for 2018. For 2019 the company is expecting to generate EUR 167.7m of sales (+1% vs. 2018), EUR 25.5m of EBITDA and EUR 11.1m of net profit (-63% YoY). CAPEX is expected to reach EUR 11.2m vs. EUR 21.5m in 2018. The decline in net profit is a direct consequence of the significant drop in sales prices of pigment titanium dioxide. TiO2 prices reached their peak in the first quarter 2018 and are under pr...
MERCATOR 9M18:Mercator Group reported revenues of EUR 1,617m for 9M18, up 1.6% YoY, Revenue from retail is up by 5.4% YoY. EBITDA amounted to EUR 86.8m, up 24.7% YoY to EUR 86.8m. CAPEX for the period amounted to EUR 19.1m. Profit of EUR 8.9m was achieved in 9M18 vs loss of 10.5m in 9M17. Net financial debt lowered by 11% to EUR 738.3m with equity at EUR 492.3m. ECONOMY:Statisti office published GDP numbers for 3Q18 – detailed data on page 4. In 3Q18 Slovenian GDP increased by 4.8% YoY vs last ...
PETROL: Please note recommendation and coverage is till temporarily suspended.Group reported 9M18 EBITDA at EUR 124.1m, up by mild 1% YoY, while net profit is at EUR 68.7m for the period, up by 11.5% YoY.Petroleum volume is up by 1% to 2,502 thousand tons while merchandise sales amounted to EUR 445.9m or up by 11% by its 495 retail station network.Net debt (only cash deducted) amounted to EUR 278.3m on 30th September 2018 vs 2017 end year EUR 374.9m.CAPEX amounted to EUR 24.3m for the period.For...
9M18 sales level is 6.7% lower YoY, and even though it should be noted 3Q and 4Q are seasonally weaker quarters, 3Q18 showed a 28.2% YoY decrease in sales and 21.5% QoQ decrease in sales. Earnings commentary is more or less in line with what peer group has commented. Industry inventory destocking is underway while demand is weakening on one hand, while input costs are rising on the other. Sales in consequently trailing plan and our initial estimates. Nevertheless, EBITDA of EUR 42.5m is up by 4....
Due to state holidays in a week of 29th October to 2nd November (on 31st October and 1st November to be exact) news flow will likely be very light and consequently next Weekly is scheduled to include news from first full week of November, consequently on 9th or 12th November. NLB (pending IPO):Equity at EUR 1,797m on 30th June 2018, however EUR 271m of dividends were paid out in the meantime so adjusted equity would be at EUR 1,527m or at EUR 76.3 per share. CET 1 ratio (before dividend payment...
ECONOMY:IMF has raised Slovenian GDP growth forecast for 2018, namely from previous 4.0% to 4.5%. At the same time they have raised 2019 GDP growth forecast by 0.2 p.p. to 3.4%. Consequently they see slower growth in 2019 vs 2018, same as other forecasting institutions, domestic and foreign. True, while IMF has raised its forecasts, domestic IMAD just recently lowered it to 4.4% for 2018, thereby now IMF is slightly more optimistic than IMAD. Please also note that unemployment rate should decrea...
Cinkarna Celje has provided investors with record results, as it generated EUR 98.2m of revenues, up 4.8%, EUR 33.6m of EBITDA, or up by 45%, and EUR 22.7m of profit, up by 63%. 2Q18 profit amounted to EUR 9.7m vs EUR 13.0m achieved in 1Q18. Therefore 1H18 results are above management expectations, as well as our, and are on very good track for significant beat. Also balance sheet remains strong with net cash position, even though we are deducting environmental provisions and even though Cinkarn...
INTEREUROPA:Newspaper Finance reported that 11 companies/funds are interested for Intereuropa, among others Pošta Slovenije (domestic postal company), SHS Aviation, Netlog Logistics etc. Non-binding bids are being gathered by the end of September which would imply the SPA could close at end year on in the beginning of 2019. True, since there is a government change, which leans to the left, risk for the transaction to succeed linger. On the other hand environment remains favorable, while results ...
Earnings season started with release schedule as stated below: Telekom 20.07.2018 Krka 26.07.2018 Zavarovalnica Triglav 17.08.2018 Petrol 23.08.2018 Intereuropa 30.08.2018 Luka Koper 31.08.2018 Pozavarovalnica Sava 31.08.2018 Unior 31.08.2018 Cinkarna Celje 12.09.2018 Please note that Cinkarna Celje and Petrol coverage is temporarily suspended while Gorenje (extensive) coverage has ceased with sell rating as Hisense takeover attempt succeeded ...
Takeover attempt by Anatol of Cinkarna Celje came as surprise to LJSE participants, given prior unsuccessful processes of several existing shareholders to unload their position in the past sale processes. Please note Anatol is connected with Ring, which successfully acquired and afterwards sold paint producer Helios in Slovenia. KKR is also mentioned as provider of financing. However for now most public expressions implied dissatisfaction with the proposed price, namely EUR 220 per share. ...
Rumours came up regarding possible KKR – Ring being interested in titanium dioxide producer Cinkarna Celje. OECD has again raised its economic expectations for Slovenia. Namely instead of 4.3% growth for 2018, they now expect a 5.0% GDP growth. For 2019 GDP growth expectation was also raised from 3.4% to 3.9% respectively. OECD is basing these raised expectations on accelerated private consumption growth (4.2%), to 12.6% growth of gross capital formation and export growth YoY of 8.8%. Tru...
Generali CEE Holding bought 100% stake in Adriatic Slovenica for EUR 245m. Adriatic Slovenica is the 3rd biggest insurance group in Slovenia, behind Triglav and Sava RE, having 14.0% market share. It also has EUR 531.6m of AuM (mutual funds) or 20% of AuM industry in Slovenia. Detailed comparison on page 2. On one hand this could stir the market and key competitors, Sava RE and Triglav, as Generali will become more important player on insurance and asset management market in Slovenia. Gene...
Sales grew by 16.6% YoY on hefty price increase (+41% YoY) and despite 12% lower sales volume. While cost of materials and services also surged, EBITDA increased by 69% YoY in 1Q18 while profit by 86% YoY. In addition it seems 2Q18 will also be strong, albeit management did point out market stabilization on demand and supply side and consequently weaker 2H vs 1H. Nevertheless their EUR 32.6 profit target for 2018 remains intact, while management proposed a dividend of EUR 26.52 per share for Jun...
SAVA RE & ZAVAROVALNICA TRIGLAV: On Page 2 and 3 we are outlining key data from Zavarovalnica Triglav and Pozavarovalnica Sava Solvency and Financial Condition report. Triglav Solvency II ratio is at 222, Sava RE Solvency II ratio is at 283%. Consequently both insurance groups have a very strong Solvency II positions. The news also reaffirms our positive outlook on both companies. LUKA KOPER: There was a repeat of the referendum about second railway tier (DivaÄa-Koper) legislature, ...
ZAVAROVALNICA TRIGLAV: Zavarovalnica Triglav also embarked on SouthEast European M&A expansion, as its subsidiary managing international markets, Triglav INT, bought a majority 75% stake (minus one share) in the Croatian pension insurance company Raiffeisen Mirovinsko osiguravajuÄe društvo from Raiffaisen Bank. The later will still own 25% plus one share after the transaction. The deal must now be signed off by regulators. This move is in line with Triglav strategy to increase its SEE pres...
Note that the next Weekly report will be published on 7th May 2018. LUKA KOPER: Repeat of the second railway tier DivaÄa-Koper referendum (important for port of Koper long term growth profile) will take place on 13th Maj 2018. While on the first referendum, held on 24th September 2017, voters voted in favor of the construction and legislature, the decision was overturned by courts. Given the Vox populi survey, it seems supporters of the second railway tier are even stronger than in Sep...
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