reports
Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director
A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 55,000 shares at 902.625DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 81/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Small guidance raise
Q1 LCY figures beat consensus due to US rebate adjustments related to 2023 adding c5%-points to LCY growth and low SG&A cost boosting EBIT growth in Q1. Wegovy sales were below consensus but above our forecast, and we have therefore adjusted our rebate assumptions for 2024. The 2024 guidance was raised to LCY sales growth of 19–27% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–30% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
- ING Helpdesk
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Kris Kippers
Recticel - Volume growth curbing price deflation
Q1 was in line with expectations whereby volume growth was able to curb the persist price deflationNo rebound yet in newbuild but renovation is able to curb thisAll in all, we stick to our neutral stance and set our TP at EUR 12.0/share or 9x EV/EBITDA (2025e)
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Company consensus added
We are slightly below consensus on Q1e LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 21.4%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 19.5%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the Ozempic US prescription trend will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Basic-Fit: 1Q24 update in line, FY24 outlook in line with consensus at mid-point. bpost: Agreement on Flemish newspaper delivery; risk of provisions largely removed. Cofinimmo: Q1 results in line. Corbion: Tail wags the dog. IMCD: The last hurdle was a harsh clip. Proximus: Strong start to the year, guidance unchanged ahead of Digi arrival. Recticel: Kingspan 1Q24 trading update. Signify: 1Q24 results; revenue decline accelerates. Umicore: Confirms FY 2024 EBITDA guidance range. ...
Lonza Prices EUR 1 Billion Straight Bond with a 3.875% Coupon
Lonza Group AG / Key word(s): Bond/Financing Lonza Prices EUR 1 Billion Straight Bond with a 3.875% Coupon 17.04.2024 / 19:00 CET/CEST Basel, Switzerland, 17 April 2024 – Lonza Finance International NV, a wholly owned company of Lonza Group Ltd, Basel (“Lonza”), announced today the pricing of a EUR 1 billion straight bond. The Eurobond marks Lonza’s second drawdown under its EMTN program. The bond has a maturity of 12 years and an annual coupon of 3.875%. The issuer is Lonza Finance International NV and the bonds will be guaranteed by Lonza. Lonza will apply for the listing of the...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Ozempic to drive raised guidance
We are slightly below consensus on Q1 LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 20.1%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 17.3%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the trend in Ozempic US prescriptions will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Lonza - Upside from Market Disruption (BUY, TP CHF610 [500], 13 pgs)
New analysis of the upcoming disruptions to the biologic CDMO market lead us to upgrade our 2027 Lonza revenues by 10% & our PT to CHF610 (28% upside). We show that recent disruptions to Wuxi & Catalent’s ability to supply the market could mean that 20% of global market CDMO share could be up for grabs. We also show that Lonza inventories have normalised, suggesting a return to normal ordering in 2024. Our AI-derived biologic demand model shows that volume growth should be 12% in 2024 & 2025 and...
Tecan Group AG: 1 director
A director at Tecan Group AG sold 24,609 shares at 362.496CHF and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Oliver Metzger
- Stephan Wulf
Lonza : Benefiting from the ongoing outsourcing trend in the healthcar...
We are initiating coverage of Lonza with a target price of CHF 535 and an Outperform rating. As one of the world's leading contract development and manufacturing organisations (CDMO), Lonza is predestined to benefit from the sustainable drivers of this industry. The group's global presence and strong market positions in the growth areas of biologics and cell and gene therapy (CGT) will fuel double-digit sales growth and >30% EBITDA margins in the medium term. Despite significant ...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Raising the bar with amycretin
At its CMD, the company maintained its strategic aspirations for 2025. It also expects increasing operating profit margins in the coming years. A key focus was the phase I trial results for amycretin in obesity, showing 13.1% weight loss (no signs of plateau). While not confirmed, we still expect it to go directly to phase III development. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,100 (1,000) on higher pipeline valuation.
- Maxime Stranart
- Stijn Demeester
Recticel/Convincing 4Q23 results and FY24 outlook/BUY
We reiterate our BUY rating and €15 target price after Recticel's FY23 results. We remain convinced by the medium-to-long term potential of the Insulation market, which should provide Recticel with ample room to grow both organically and through M&A thanks to its net cash position. We view future acquisitions as a key catalyst for the share price over the short term, as these would confirm the ambition of the group to materially grow in the non-residential Insulated Panels segment. We believe th...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Catalent: game changer
We believe the move by Novo Holding to acquire Catalent and re-sell the three fill-finish facilities to Novo Nordisk is inspired, and underpins the strength of having the foundation as a major shareholder. With the acquisition, the obesity opportunity moves from supply to demand-driven, while at the same time making scale a significant competitive advantage. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to DKK1,000 (800).
- Wim Hoste
Recticel Model update – still firepower for further growth
We have finetuned our earnings model post the FY23 results release. From a low base we expect Recticel to grow adjusted EBITDA by c. 33% in FY24, with about half of the growth coming from the recently acquired Rex business and the remainder mainly coming from savings initiatives. We expect building markets to only improve materially as from 2025. While we still believe in the strategic attractiveness of Recticel's (mainly) polyurethane focussed insulation offering, we deem valuation is about fai...
- Wim Hoste
Recticel Feedback conference call
Below are the highlights from the conference call. FY23 adjusted EBITDA dropped by 39% to 39.2m, which was at the high end of the 35-40m guidance range and slightly better than our and consensus forecasts which were close to the midpoint of the guidance range. Recticel did not give a precise 2024 guidance but expects a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA, which is incorporated in our and consensus forecasts, partly on the consolidation effect of the recently acquired Rex business. After the ...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AB InBev: A Bit Light, Bud. Ackermans & van Haaren: Core units AM/Banks and DEME. Adecco: Beats by 17% on 4Q23 EBITA; outlook solid. Air France-KLM: Peak reached already? Allfunds Group PLC: MoreFunds. ASR: 2H23 squeezed between two CMDs, no surprises. Belgian telecoms: Digi to launch convergent offers in Belgium. CM.com: FY23 results, EBITDA positive in 2H23. Fugro: Strong? Excellent!. NN Group: FY23 better, modest 2025 targets, capital distribution strategy better. Recticel...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
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