reports
- Sašo Stanovnik
Slovenian Weekly Regional Overview 22.10.2018 - 26.10.2018 + NLB IPO
Due to state holidays in a week of 29th October to 2nd November (on 31st October and 1st November to be exact) news flow will likely be very light and consequently next Weekly is scheduled to include news from first full week of November, consequently on 9th or 12th November. NLB (pending IPO):Equity at EUR 1,797m on 30th June 2018, however EUR 271m of dividends were paid out in the meantime so adjusted equity would be at EUR 1,527m or at EUR 76.3 per share. CET 1 ratio (before dividend payment...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Slovenian Weekly Regional Overview 17.9.2017 - 21.9.2017
TELEKOM SLOVENIJE:Further development regarding a rumor supervisory board is discussing a settlement deal with T2 is still pending. The only new variable is that the settlement could include receivables due from T2, which would lower the effective net payment by Telekom to roughly EUR 30m. In the meantime share price did not react much as most are waiting for more speculation or are of opinion shares have already adjusted enough. ZAVAROVALNICA TRIGLAV:NLB finally agreed to sell its 28.13% share...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Slovenian Weekly Regional Overview 20.8.2017 - 24.8.2017
POLITICS:Ministry team (16 positions) is slowly getting formed with key positions being: it seems SMC will control Ministry of Economic development and Technology as well as Ministry of Foreign Affairs, SAB Ministry of Infrastructure, Desus Defense Ministry, Lista M. Šarca Finance Ministry and Ministry of Health, Social Democrats Ministry of Justice etc.Given this segmentation and names circulating around, it seems a hefty part of the team will be the same as in Cerar coalition (sometimes only w...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Slovenian Weekly Regional Overview 13.8.2017 - 17.8.2017
POLITICS: A key theme remains Slovene politics or more exactly, coalition building. On 17th Šarec became a new Prime Minister based on a minority government scenario of 5 parties (Social Democrats, Pension party Desus, Slovene Modern Centre, Lista M. Šarca and Bratušek Party with 43 seats of 90) with The Left (9) supporting the vote under a partnership agreement for certain projects, as well as having an influence in a coalition. More data on page 2 of this report. Note that Šarec Ministry t...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Slovenian Weekly Report 23.7.2018-27.7.2018
Earnings season started with release schedule as stated below: Telekom 20.07.2018 Krka 26.07.2018 Zavarovalnica Triglav 17.08.2018 Petrol 23.08.2018 Intereuropa 30.08.2018 Luka Koper 31.08.2018 Pozavarovalnica Sava 31.08.2018 Unior 31.08.2018 Cinkarna Celje 12.09.2018 Please note that Cinkarna Celje and Petrol coverage is temporarily suspended while Gorenje (extensive) coverage has ceased with sell rating as Hisense takeover attempt succeeded ...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Slovenian Weekly Report 9.7.2018-13.7.2018
LUKA KOPER: 2Q18 and 1H18 throughput data was released. Total throughput in tonnage grew by 0.3% YoY in 2Q18 with 6.0% TEU growth and 17.3% vehicle unit growth. Consequently sales revenues of parent company stood at EUR 111.6m or by 5.8% YoY. While throughput data is under the influence of some infrastructure overhaul affecting it, the good news is that vehicles and container growth is strong, as well as pricing. Also this top-line growth is above our initial expectations. POLITICS: President ...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Slovenian Weekly Report 25.6.2018-6.7.2018
GORENJE:The Securities Market Agency declared Hisenses‘s takeover bid as successful.Hisense Luxembourg Home Appliance Holding informed that 5,165 shareholders accepted the takeover bid between May 29 and June 26, 2018. They conseqeuntly acquired combined total of 15,254,871 GRVG shares, which represents 62.46% of all Gorenje shares. Complete with the shares acquired before the announcement of the takeover bid (32.96% of GRVG shares), the company Hisense Luxembourg Home Appliance Holding now owns...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Slovenian Weekly Report 11.6.2018-15.6.2018
GORENJE:Panasonic Corporation, holding 10.7419% of Gorenje shares, also sold its entire position as they have accepted the takeover offer by Hisense. This was expected, namely that Panasonic will seek and accept an exit after it decided not to pursue strategic alliance with Gorenje in late 2016. Note that majority of their holding was gained in 2013 cap increase for EUR 4.31 per share.In addition it was speculated whether state entity KAD d.d. will be able to accept the offer since states strate...
- Sašo Stanovnik
- Sašo Stanovnik
Slovenian Weekly Report 28.5.2018-3.6.2018
Rumours came up regarding possible KKR – Ring being interested in titanium dioxide producer Cinkarna Celje. OECD has again raised its economic expectations for Slovenia. Namely instead of 4.3% growth for 2018, they now expect a 5.0% GDP growth. For 2019 GDP growth expectation was also raised from 3.4% to 3.9% respectively. OECD is basing these raised expectations on accelerated private consumption growth (4.2%), to 12.6% growth of gross capital formation and export growth YoY of 8.8%. Tru...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Slovenian Weekly Report 14.8.2018-18.5.2018
1Q18 results season started well with result mostly coming in-line (Gorenje, Telekom) or ahead (Triglav, Cinkarna) of our expectations. Economic environment remains favorable and we can be encouraged for 2Q18 as well. This has, together with Gorenje takeover intention and hefty dividend proposals, lifted SBI TOP sentiment. AJPES issued Slovenian earnings data for 2017. Slovenian companies increased revenues by 13% in 2017 vs 2016 with 19% increase in exports and 10% increase on the d...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Gorenje 1Q18: Results in-line with expectations, however the main topi...
1Q18 sales revenues of the Group amounted to EUR 295.6m, down by 3.3% YoY, but when accounting for divestments of coal trade operations, sales were up 0.8% YoY. Sales in Eastern Europe stagnated YoY, while West Europe recorded sales decrease due to repositioning (higher prices led to lower volume). In other markets sales increased YoY. EBITDA amounted to EUR 22.4m, 8.7% more than comparable EBITDA in 1Q17. EBITDA margin increased YoY from 6.3% to 6.7%. Net profit amounted to EUR 2.5m, 23.5% more...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Gorenje 2017: Another disappointment, investors turning toward M&A spe...
2017 started well in the first half, but the second half spoiled the broth. Sales revenues were up by 4.1% YoY in 2017 however core appliance segment generated only 0.4% YoY growth. Even more importantly costs and investments spoiled profitability in 2017. Namely Gorenje Group generated EBITDA of only EUR 76.4m in 2017 with margin at 5.8% or 1.1 p.p. lower than in 2016. CAPEX of EUR 83.2m was spent. This translated into meagre EUR 1.0m of profit out of which EUR 8.8m was generated by non-core se...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Slovenian Weekly Report 12.3.2018-16.3.2018
Prime minister Cerar surprisingly resigned on Wednesday:As regular elections were already looming (June 2018), we believe this will not derail strong economic trends and sentiment as well as shake up equity market. In addition we could label this coalition as non-reformist, mostly fighting for status quo. In this respect equity markets did not lose anything.Possible direct consequence comes only to Luka Koper due to further delay of solving railway bottleneck. But the impact of the delay and sec...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Slovenian Weekly Report 5.3.2018-9.3.2018
4Q17 and consequently 2017 earnings season has begun starting with insurance sector, Petrol, Gorenje and Intereuropa. Note more is to come throughout March-April with our detailed research reports and updated valuation after annual reports are published. Given 9M17 results and 2018 plans we doubt any major change in our stance will derive from results itself, however some investment thesis adjustments (positive or negative) can be clarified and lead to recommendation stance change. Petrol man...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Gorenje 9M17: 3Q17 disappointed and made it difficult to achieve all s...
Domestic Appliance sales is down 2.3% YoY in 3Q17 however this was compensated by 16.9% growth in non-core sales. This contributed to overall sales revenues growth of 4.8% YoY in 9M17 versus 9M16. At the same time EBITDA margin stagnated from YoY perspective at 6.2%, again with 3Q17 margin delivered lower. More concerning, labour costs increased in 3Q17 while Gorenje noted some favourable cost dynamic also ceased in the mentioned quarter and will persist in the following quarters. All in all whi...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Gorenje 1H17: Good top line dynamic continued, albeit 2Q17 profitabili...
Gorenje sales revenues are up by hefty 7.3% in 1H17, strongly helped by FX (Eastern Europe sales up by 4.9% YoY, but FX adjusted rate at 0.8%) and by growth in non-core activities. It’s true also that premium appliances growth still strong, which is positive. On the other hand EBITDA margin fell to 6.5% and EBITDA missed our expectations by EUR 2m; albeit again due to non-core activities. Not much, however a disappointment given the slight sales beat. Profit doubled to EUR 4.3m and Gorenje is st...
- Sašo Stanovnik
Gorenje 1Q17: Results show Gorenje is on path to deliver its guidance
​Revenues are up 7.1% YoY, with 3.4% YoY growth from core Home segment (or 1.2% excluding FX effects). Consequently, due to operating leverage EBITDA increased by 11.4% YoY to EUR 20.6 while Group also achieved profit of EUR 2m. Dynamic is seasonal and given the results Gorenje is on track to achieve its 2017 guidance. On the other hand, debt level remains elevated while TTM operating ex investment cash flow subdued. For now target price and recommendation remains unchanged.
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
Insider bought: A director bought 84,000 shares at 0.000EUR and
A director at Gorenje Velenje bought 84,000 shares at 0.000EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
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