reports
Fatima Fertilizer Co Ltd: 1 director
A director at Fatima Fertilizer Co Ltd bought 10,000,000 shares at 37.060PKR and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last tw...
- Team AKD Research
Pakistan Fertilizer_a curious case of fertilizer shortage, (AKD Daily,...
AKD Daily Pakistan Fertilizer: a curious case of fertilizer shortage The issue of unavailability of urea has started to reach mainstream media where our channel checks suggest farmers being charged PkR2,300/bag—PkR2,400/bag as opposed to official price of PkR1,800/bag. The disparity in domestic and international prices of urea of ~PkR7,700/bag has being the primary reason affecting retail supplies of the commodity. The supply side concerns come at a time when the wheat sowing is in full ...
Pakistan Fertilizer_Low base effect leads to YoY increase in urea offt...
• As per the data released by the NFDC, urea offtake for Oct’20 increased 5/247% MoM/YoY to 413K tons. The significant uptick in offtake on YoY basis was due to low base effect. To recall, gas price hike of 62/31% for fertilizer feed/fuel effective from Jul’19 and consequent urea price hike in Sep’19 led to a pre-buying trend in preceding months (urea price hike was on hold, in anticipation of GIDC removal).• As per the data released by the NFDC, urea offtake for Oct’20 increased 5/247% MoM/YoY ...
Pakistan Fertilizer: Risks on the horizon, (AKD Daily, Dec 30, 2019)
As per data released by NFDC, Urea offtake declined 23% YoY to 380K tons in Nov’19, while showing recovery on a sequential basis. This takes 11MCY19 urea offtake to 4.8mn tons, down 4% YoY. The ending inventory stands at 1,041K tons in Nov’19 vs. 245K tons in Nov’18. Company-wise, Urea offtake declined across the industry with EFERT/FATIMA witnessing lowest/highest decline. DAP offtake, on the other hand, increased 53/49% YoY/MoM in Nov’19, containing the 11MCY19 DAP offtake decline at 10%. ...
- Team AKD Research
Pakistan Fertilizer: Seasonality led uptick in offtakes
Urea offtake for May’19 clocked in at 592K tons, up 103/20% MoM/YoY, taking cumulative 5MCY19 urea offtake to 2.2mn tons, up 2% YoY. The MoM increase in May’19 is accounted for by seasonality, while Agritech and FatimaFert contributed to higher YoY offtake on a YoY bsis. FFBL’s urea offtake exhibited an increase of 31%YoY, and 2.8x MoM. Meanwhile, Urea offtakes of FFC, EFERT and FATIMA were +5/+3/-8% YoY, respectively. The urea inventory closed at 263K tons, down 20% YoY. The ECC is schedule...
- Shumaila Badar
PKR Slips to PKR 132/134 per USD in Interbank
According to the treasury department of a Commercial Bank, PKR has started depreciating once again, and is trading at around PKR 132/134 per USD as of the writing of this flash note (9:52am). This round of depreciation is not very surprising because of news that the Finance Minister will approach IMF for a bailout this week, and because IMF has already pointed out in its press release that further PKR devaluation is needed. In addition to the devaluation, IMF believes Pakistan needs to further t...
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MARI MARI PETROLEUM
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PIOC PIONEER CEMENT LTD.
ACPL ATTOCK CEMENT PAKISTAN LTD.
PPL PAKISTAN PETROLEUM LTD.
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FATIMA FATIMA FERTILIZER CO. LTD.
MUGHAL MUGHAL IRON & STEEL INDUSTRIES
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Restoration of FatimaFert to Add PKR 0.32/share to FATIMA’s CY18 EPS
As per news reports, the Government has restored supply of gas to FatimaFert Limited(FatimaFert) from September 20, 2018 on short term arrangement for period of four months to meet the shortfall of Urea in upcoming Rabi season. The news reports suggest that for next two months of supplies, the Government will share 50% of cost of RLNG, comprising one-third of total volume that will be blended with two third of locally produced natural gas. According to our discussion with the management of Fatim...
- Hamad Aslam
- Sharoon Ahmad
Pakistan Equity Market - Lack of Action in Finance Act Amendments
Amendments to Finance Act unveiled yesterday lack austerity measures that we think are required to trim the Twin Deficits Revenue measures are projected to raise PKR183bn in additional collection while Federal Development Budget was cut by a meagre PKR255bn to PKR725bn; resultantly fiscal deficit for FY19 is expected to clock in at PKR2.3tn (6.0% of GDP) While market cheered the lack of austerity measures, we were disappointed as we could not see any decisive measures that can meaningfully t...
- Shumaila Badar
Maneuvering Through a Trade War, New Government, and an IMF Program
There are three over-arching themes that will affect macros in the remainder of 2018: the trade war, new government, and possible entrance into a new IMF programme. The three together will affect all parts of Pakistan’s economy, in both positive and negative ways. We expect a rally post-elections, and are targeting an Index level of 44,000 to 45,000 by Dec’18. Given our outlook on the economy, we recommend investors to be market weight on most sectors, over-weight in Banks, and underweight on Au...
Diverse Portfolio of Products set to Benefit FATIMA
We are re-initiating our coverage on Fatima Fertilizer Company Limited (FATIMA) with a December 2018 target price of PKR 37.30, which gives an upside of 16.56% from its last closing price. The company has outperformed the index since the start of the year as a result of significant improvement in earnings for 1QCY18. The increase in its earnings was due to i) higher volumetric sales despite the production activity in Fatimafert (FATIMA’s wholly owned subsidiary) remaining suspended, ii) improvem...
- Abdul Samad Khanani
Intermarket Pulse: Pakistan Fertilizer: Volumes & lower inventory to l...
IMS Fertilizer Universe (including ENGRO) is expected to post 1QCY18 NPAT of PRs11.55bn, up 31% YoY, led by 44%/18% YoY growth in Urea/DAP offtakes, recovery in pricing discipline amid falling inventories and higher cash income on GIDC accumulation. We expect EFERT to outperform the industry with 1Q NPAT expected to rise 93% YoY, while ENGRO/FFC profits are expected to grow 33%/20% YoY. FATIMA’s PBT is expected up 11% YoY but tax rate should normalize. FFBL would likely post a loss on standal...
- Abdul Samad Khanani
Intermarket Pulse: Pakistan Fertilizer: Seasonal slowdown in offtakes ...
According to NFDC, Urea offtake grew 49% YoY in Feb’18, but dropped 31% MoM on account of lean season. Demand for other fertilizer products such as DAP and CAN remained healthy with growth of 25% and 6% YoY, respectively. Urea inventories now stand at 273k tons, down from 1.19mn tons in the same period last year. This has allowed retail price levels to surpass the PRs1,400/bag mark (recorded at PRs1,420/bag), despite government’s notified price level of PRs1,400/bag and company prices at PRs1...
- Abdul Samad Khanani
Intermarket Intel - FATIMA: Results are well-above expectations due to...
FATIMA announced 4QCY17 unconsolidated NPAT of PRs3.90bn (EPS: PRs1.86), up 14% YoY. The result is above our expected 4QCY17 NPAT PRs2.48bn (EPS: PRs1.18). The company also announced final cash dividend of PRs2.25/sh vs. PRs3.25/sh in CY16. This takes CY17 unconsolidated NPAT to PRs10.57bn (EPS: PRs5.04), up 8% YoY amid 28%/52% YoY growth in Urea/CAN offtakes. However, NP offtakes declined 8% YoY. The company incurred losses of PRs1.32bn from DH Fertilizers amid inconsistent plant operations ...
Pakistan Fertilizers_Robust start of CY18
After a fitting end to CY17 (fertilizer/Urea offtake posted growth of 8%/7%YoY), CY18 got off to a robust start with not only urea but cumulative fertilizer sales remaining promising during Jan'18. According to the latest figures released by NFDC, total fertilizer sales in Jan'18 clocked in at 774k tons, up 30%YoY. Similarly, urea sales have also jumped by 33%YoY to 539k tons. Furthermore, DAP sales also registered growth of 51%YoY to 92k tons in Jan'18. However, on a monthly basis, total fertil...
EFERT & FATIMA_4QCY17 Earnings Preview
EFERT: 4QCY17 Earnings Preview EFERT is scheduled to announce its 4QCY17 financial results on Thursday (Feb 08'18) where we expect EFERT's earnings to clock in at PkR3.49bn (EPS: PkR2.62) against PkR3.34bn (EPS: PkR2.52) - up 4%YoY. This increase in earnings is expected on the back of: 1) 3.4pptsYoY improvement in GMs to 32.5% (includes subsidy) on account of higher urea prices (reduction in discounts offering as urea inventory normalizes amid higher int’l prices). On a cumulative basis, we exp...
Pakistan Fertilizers_Sector update Nov'17
Following its previous months performance of CY17, fertilizer off-take remained promising in Nov'17 as well on the arrival of Rabi season coupled with continued support from subsidy package. According to the latest figures released by NFDC, total fertilizer sales in Nov'17 clocked in at 1.26mn tons, up 37%MoM. Similarly, urea sales have also jumped by 60%MoM to 602k tons. Furthermore, DAP sales also registered a growth of 30%MoM to 502k tons in Nov'17. However, on yearly basis, total fertilizer/...
Pakistan Fertilizers_Improvements to continue
Post dismal performance in CY16 on account of depressed industry dynamics, CY17 is turning out to be a good year in the making. Notable improvements include: 1) significant +26%/+20%YoY growth in total fertilizer/urea offtake during 9MCY17, 2) normalization of inventory level (urea inventory standing at 733k tons vs. 1.56mn tons in Sept'16), 3) export of urea (so far 422k tons exported till Sept'16 out of the allocated quota of 600k tons), and 4) reversal in international pricing dynamics (urea ...
- Team AKD Research
Pakistan Fertilizers: Sector update Sept'17
According to latest figures released by NFDC, total fertilizer sales in Sept'17 stood at 632k tons against 508k tons sold in Sept'17 (+24%YoY/-45%MoM), mainly due to higher DAP sales of 384k tons during the month (up 3.6xYoY/4.6xMoM ). Urea offtake on the other hand came down significantly by 40%YoY/81%MoM to just 179k ton in Sept'17 on account of extraordinary sales of 948k tons in the month of Aug'17 (up 65%YoY/180%MoM) coupled with the off-season factor. On a cumulative basis, total fertilize...
- Abdul Samad Khanani
FATIMA: Limited earnings growth ahead; Neutral
We maintain neutral stance on FATIMA with Dec’17 TP of PkR36.9/sh, backed by mixed bag of fertilizer dynamics and lack of upside triggers. We expect FATIMA to post CY17/18F EPS of PkR4.49/4.37 and DPS of PkR2.0 each. FATIMA’s financial health has improved with issuance of Sukuk and clearance of substantial inventory as of Dec’16. On a standalone basis, FATIMA had 164k/166k/66k tons of Urea/CAN/NP inventory at Feb’17, of which Urea/CAN may continue to remain at healthy levels on over-supp...
Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report
Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind...
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