STOXX Europe 600 Index review - No changes of index constituents in our Coverage Universe AT: Addiko Bank - Decision on CHF law expected this year; expansion into other markets not ruled out (neutral) AT: S IMMO - AGM lifts shareholder voting restriction, meeting precondition for offer from CPI Property Group (positive) HR: Croatia ready to join eurozone in 2023 (positive) Oil&Gas: OPEC+ meeting - Saudi Arabia is reportedly prepared to raise oil production PL: Banks - Poland won't t...
Oil&Gas: Oil price - A potential announcement of another release of US oil reserves puts pressure on the oil price ahead of today's OPEC meeting PL: PKN - The 2021 DPS proposal of PLN 3.50 is fully in line with previous guidance and market expectation (neutral) RU: Fertilisers - Essential goods incl. fertilizers are exempted from any U.S. anti-Russia sanctions (positive) RU: NLMK - NLMK continues steel supplies to Europe and USA (neutral) RU: Petropavlovsk - Loan from Gazprombank may ...
AT: Oesterreichische Post - Q4 21 in line, muted outlook wording (neutral) AT: OMV - Borealis declined the binding offer of EuroChem for the acquisition of its fertilizer business (neutral) AT: OMV - OMV is considering building a waste sorting plant in Germany (neutral) CZ: Komercni Banka, Erste Group - Central bank to increase counter-cyclical capital buffer to 2.5% from April 22 (negative) HR: Hrvatski Telekom - Dividend proposal od HRK 8.00 per share (neutral) HR: Valamar Riviera ...
The general evaluation of PHOSAGRO (RU), a company active in the Speciality Chemicals industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 3 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as defensive. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date March 4, 2022, the closing price was RUB 5,015....
-EBITDA, FCF strong and close to consensus -Capex guidance for 2022e above our expectations, yet 22e FCFY should still be high at 11-12% likely translating into the same DY -Strategy presentation now expected in Q3 22 -We expect a close to neutral market reaction
РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГРезкое повышение доходности гособлигаций США вчера оказало давление на цены суверенного долга развивающихся рынков. В сегменте 10-летних обязательств российские бумаги выглядели гораздо более устойчивыми, чем аналоги, и подешевели всего на 0,3 п. п. В прочих сегментах суверенных бумаг слабее рынка выглядел выпуск Россия-47 (минус 1,1 п. п.). ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИНерезиденты вчера более активно продавали ОФЗ, т. к. инфляция в США оказалась выше прогнозов, и д...
CIS EUROBOND MARKETA sharp increase in US Treasury yields following the higher than expected US CPI prints put pressure on EM sovereign debt yesterday. Russia's 10y sovereign Eurobonds fared better than peers, dropping only 0.3 pp in price. The Russia 47 underperformed with a 1.1 pp decline.GOVERNMENT DEBTInternational offers in the OFZ market picked up yesterday after the higher than expected US CPI readings and the resulting jump in US Treasury yields. However, the mood in the market was a bit...
PhosAgro (PHOR: LI; O/W; TP $34.2/GDR) delivered 4Q21 IFRS financials which came broadly in line with the consensus on revenue and EBITDA. A major surprise came from the quarterly dividend payout that arrived ahead of our and market expectations. PhosAgro plans to distribute RUB50.5 bn or RUB390/share, implying a 6.6% dividend yield. The total recommended payout for 2021 is RUB114,5 bn, translating into a 15% dividend yield annualized. The robust dividend payout reflects strong management con...
MSCI February Index Review - No changes in constituents in our Coverage Universe AT: Lenzing - Dexco's Q4 results herald start-up of DWP plant in Brazil on schedule in Q1 22 (positive) CZ: Komercni Banka - Q4 21 earnings beat, dividend proposal of CZK 43.80 in line, 2022 guidance slightly ahead of RBIe (positive) PL: CCC - The company has no plans to issue shares or raise debt (neutral) RO: Banca Transilvania, BRD-GSG - National Bank of Romania raises key interest rate by 50 bps to 250...
Exporters may be the best choice in 2022e, thanks to strong export sales multiplied by raised commodity prices The Russian equity market is very attractive with a 50-60% discount to EM peers on PE In our base case, geopolitical tensions will not intensify and the RUB will consequently appreciate but the pressure will not promptly fade Top picks: Gazprom, Alrosa, MMK, X5, PhosAgro
AT: IMMOFINANZ - Sees adjusted offer price from CPI still as too low (neutral) CEE: Banks - UniCredit reports Q4 21 with clear uptick in risk costs in CEE (neutral) CZ: CTP - DIR shareholders tender 81% shares to CTP, 98% support the merger (neutral) HU: MOL - SESOP increased its shareholding to 7.7% (neutral) RU: Fertilisers - Government considers AN export ban for two months in view of the early domestic spring sowing season (neutral) RU: Petropavlovsk - Lower-than-expected output...
РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГРоссийский суверенный сегмент завершил вчерашние торги на максимальных уровнях за месяц: котировки поднялись на 0,5-2 п. п. вдоль кривой вслед за ралли гособлигаций США на прошлой неделе. Наибольшие потоки были зафиксированы в Россия-35 и Россия-47. ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИНеделя на рынке ОФЗ началась со снижения доходности: в сегменте от семи лет оно составило от 8 до 13 б. п. Инверсия кривой увеличилась, т. к. доходность коротких выпусков снизилась только на ...
CIS EUROBOND MARKETThe Russian sovereign segment closed at its highest levels in about a month yesterday, catching up to the rally in the US Treasury market last week. The gains ranged from 0.5-2.0 pp, while the most traded issues were the Russia 35 and Russia 47. GOVERNMENT DEBTOFZs kicked off the week with yields moving 8-13 bps lower on issues maturing in longer than 7y. Short-dated issues, meanwhile, saw yields decline just 3-5 bps. This meant that the inversion of the curve steepened. The m...
PhosAgro (PHOR: LI; O/W; TP $34.2/GDR) delivered a solid set of financials with quarterly EBITDA coming confidently above our and market estimates supported by the increase in fertilizer prices amid high demand and low inventory levels on key markets. PhosAgro generated nearly $0.8 bn (RUB 57.2 bn) EBITDA for the quarter. Robust sales in a favorable price environment resulted in healthy operating cash flow generation leading to an improved debt position of 0.83x of net debt/EBITDA which allow...
Export quotas introduced for fertilisers till May 2022e, the effect on complex phosphate-based fertilisers is limited as compared to N-fertilisers Dividend for Q3 21e exceeds expectations (4.2-4.5% DY) We treat the overall newsflow for the stock as close to neutral
AT: AT&S - Apple results disappointed on supply chain issues (negative) AT: OMV - Q3 clean earnings above expectations, strong FCF generation, announcing USD 320 mn divestment in Norway (positive) AT: Palfinger - Guidance reiterated after in-line Q3, strong order books, mid-term ambitions raised (neutral) CZ: Moneta Money Bank - Q3 21 net profits beats estimates / FY 21 guidance raised on lower risk costs PL: Lotos - Q3 results fully in line with preliminaries (neutral) RO: Digi Comm...
EU: Utilities - Nine EU countries reject Franco-Spanish push for electricity market reform (positive) AT: AT&S - CFO Faath resigned, CEO to take over responsibilities on an interim basis (negative) AT: Flughafen Wien - European Airport Association expects pre-Covid passenger level to be reached again in 2025 (neutral) AT: Frequentis - Recently acquired Frequentis Orthogon wins sustainability award at World ATM Congress (neutral) AT: OMV - Moody's upgraded OMV's rating to A3 from BAA1 (...
2021 CONTINUES TO FAVOUR FERTILIZER PRODUCERS Prices remain in a territory of abundant growth reflecting supply restrictions caused by recent hurricane Ida and trade tariffs while receiving support from rallying input costs. We view PhosAgro’s high level of vertical integration and input materials available through long-term and formula based supply contracts as an insurance of higher profitability compared to peers. That indicates new EBITDA records to come and is expected to drive the stock...
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