Benelux Morning Notes

Belgian telcos: Digi co-owner Citymesh seeks €60m to finance medium-term ambitions. DEME Group: One-off items disturb the picture. D'Ieteren: TVH CEO steps down

CoreWeave profitability; DeepSeek’s ASIC try; Semicap; PC pull-forward...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 9 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Benelux Morning Notes

Ascencio: Stable update CFE: Preview; margin over volume CVC Capital Partners: Moments of Realisation D'Ieteren: Belron North American peer Boyd points to positive 3Q25 inflection point in like for like growth Fastned: 1H25 results; disappointing charging volumes, cost pressure continues Greenyard: Results of second acceptance period concerning takeover bid and launching squeeze-out

AMD GPUs, Cyber HW refresh, Arista, Auto cycle and more.

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 34 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

ASML/Slower 2026, long-term intact/BUY

Despite a slower growth outlook for 2026 we remain positive on the ASML investment case. We believe that the long-term outlook for semiconductor capex remains strong. On top of that, we expect continued increases in litho intensity resulting in above-industry growth. The current valuation close to previous lows, the risk-reward is attractive in our view. We reiterate our BUY rating but slightly lower our target price from €825 to €800 per share.

Holdings Report - July 2025 KBCS Holdings Universe Returns -0.5% Durin...

1M Performance - Absolute Total Return: During Jul'25 (1M period), the KBCS Holdings Universe posted a total return of -0.5% which was mainly driven by the performance of the multi-asset holdings (-0.9%), while the single-asset holdings posted a return of +0.4%. The 3 top performers during the period were Financière de Tubize (+11.7%), KBC Ancora (+9.4%) and Quest For Growth (+5.5%) while the 3 worst performers were Brederode (-6.4%), Heineken Holding (-5.0%) and D'Ieteren Group (-4.7%). YTD Pe...

AI capex & replatforming; semicap into 2026; Apple, Arm & more.

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 34 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

D'Ieteren/Compounding business services portfolio

We think the May CMD cemented D'Ieteren's profile as an EPS and FCF compounder, +14% EPS CAGR 2025F-28F, +14% FCFev CAGR, a specialised listed Private Equity (PE) fund building a portfolio of growth platforms in adjacent, resilient business services companies, with a potential to rerate and D'Ieteren to invest in new high ROCE, FCF businesses with scalable franchise. We estimate a new participation could add c.15% of EBITDA by 2026/2027. We think the IPO of Belron, 70% of our SOTP, is possible b...

2026 AI Capex, HBM Pricing, Auto Semi Recovery, and more.

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 22 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

America’s AI Action Plan. Our 5 quick takes.

The Trump administration published its AI Action Plan yesterday. Please click the link below to see our summary on the 5 most relevant points for tech infrastructure and the broader AI supply chain.

ASML: best positioned for 2026 in the Semicap pack. Upgrade to Buy, €7...

Consensus expects ASML to grow revenues 2% next year, compared to 6-12% for its peers. That is conservative. If anything, we see room for ASML to outperform, driven by high leading-edge exposure. Beyond 2026, we also expect ASML to grow in the upper end of its peer group. Normal order intake in 3Q would allow management to ease concerns around 2026 growth, and with the stock trading on 25x forward earnings we see limited risk of further de-rating. We hence upgrade the stock to Buy, €790 Target...

H20 ban, TSMC beats, ASML cautious, Auto pull-ins, RAN muted. Our week...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 4 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Benelux Morning Notes

ASM: 2Q25 Preview, AI winner BE Semiconductor Industries: 2Q25 Preview, focus on advanced order intake CM.com: Preview 1H25 D'Ieteren: Belron $4.655bn TBL repriced 25bp lower PostNL: Preview 2Q25F; consensus released Wolters Kluwer: To divest Finance, Risk and Regulatory Reporting unit

ING Benelux Favourites/Weekly performance and valuation update

We update the performance of our ING Benelux Favourites list as well as all valuation and ranking tables for our coverage universe. Performance on the front page is dated from the 27 January 2025, while historical performance is included on the second page. The methodology for our favourites selection is based on a bottom-up approach with a focus on absolute performance with clear near-term triggers. It is a rolling list, ie, stocks can enter/exit whenever we think opportune. The ING Benelux Fav...

ASML 2Q25: Cautious tone on 2026 is justified. Maintain Neutral, €680 ...

ASML reported 2Q25 this morning. Please click below for our take on the print.

ASML sees risks to 2026 growth/AI remains driver of semiconductor indu...

ASML reported solid 1H25 results and confirmed its FY25 and FY30 outlooks. Also, the net bookings were solid in 2Q25 at €5.5bn. However, ASML sees risks from geopolitical uncertainty to FY26 revenues. Nevertheless, ASML has a very strong balance sheet and good growth prospects. We continue to like the ASML notes. Moreover, they offer good value when compared to the notes of Orange in the belly of the curve.

Semi cycle update. Much ado about nothing: Tariff and DeepSeek effects...

We publish today our quarterly and extensive review of where fundamentals, expectations, and valuations stand in semis and give our views on how investors should be positioned for the rest of the year. For details, please follow the link below.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 07/17/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 17/07/2025