HEADLINES: • LiveChat Software: 4Q21-22 (calendar 1Q22) results - EBITDA up 10% yoy, 8% below our estimates NEGATIVE • PCF Group: Outriders Worldslayer released, initial Steam reviews disappoint NEGATIVE • Nuclearelectrica: calls GMS to approve EUR 185m financing for EnergoNuclear NEGATIVE • OMV Petrom: the government adopts the Ordinance reducing fuel prices by RON 0.5/litre • Romgaz: transaction with Exxon to be completed at end-July 2022 NEUTRAL • Gazprom: AGM fails to approve its 2021 divid...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • Cognor Holding: record results could serve as re-rating trigger (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Hungary macro: taxes and budget consolidation • Alpha Bank: strong 1Q22 numbers, with upside risk for FY22E estimates POSITIVE • Kernel: 3Q22 EBITDA materially below our estimates, amid weak farming segment result NEGATIVE • Aegean Airlines: 1Q22 - small beat, fare levels exceed expectations, summer outlook encouraging POSITIVE • Public Power Corporation: 1Q22 earnings in line, still ...
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Russia can live (but not thrive) without EU gas payments • Erste Bank: strong start to 2022 with the 1Q22 delivery POSITIVE • Kruk: publishes detailed 1Q22 - solid trends, but supported by positive revaluations, as suspected NEUTRAL • Tekfen Holding: 1Q22 results - another major miss NEGATIVE • Turkcell: 1Q22 results in line, except a 10% NI miss; FY22E guidance maintained NEUTRAL • Enerjisa Enerji: 1Q22 results review - mixed, but FY guidance revised up NEUTRA...
EME Equity Market – March 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks mostly in the black, despite the MSCI EM Europe Index losing half of its value. Following its decline in February, the MSCI EM Europe Index lost in March as well, declining by 49.5% in EUR terms and 50.1% in USD terms. Russia’s MOEX Index added 13.2% in EUR terms and 9.4% RUB terms (we note that Russian companies’ GDRs are still suspended for trading). The Turkish ISE30 Index added 8.2% in EUR terms and 13.3% in local curren...
HEADLINES: • Allegro: still a market leader, with ambitions for more (upgraded to BUY) • Nuclearelectrica: riding the power price boom (upgraded to BUY) • Czech Republic macro: CNB hikes, with a cautious undertone • CEE macro: CE4 yields and macro forecasts update • Ekspress Grupp: final 4Q21 figures in line with prelims, ambitious 2026E profitability target • Ten Square Games: key takeaways from the 4Q21 earnings call NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: management proposes PLN 2.68/share div...
HEADLINES: • Arena Hospitality Group: more pleasure, less business (upgraded to BUY) • Bank of Cyprus: unjustified valuation gap (stays BUY) • PZU: very strong 4Q21, on strong real estate investment result and restarting of GWP growth POSITIVE • Ceska zbrojovka Group: big miss in 4Q21 due to one-offs, but FY22E guidance is upbeat POSITIVE • CA Immo: 4Q21 - massive revaluation gain and strong sales result, but weak underlying FFO • Aegean Airlines: 4Q21 - capacity continues to recover, but pro...
РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГВ понедельник рынок еврооблигаций оставался неликвидным.ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИВчера возобновились биржевые торги ОФЗ после приостановки, объявленной 25 февраля. По итогам аукциона открытия доходности выпусков с фиксированным купоном составили от 15,5% в длинных выпусках до 18% в наиболее коротких. Активные покупки со стороны индивидуальных инвесторов (физлиц) в течение дня привели к снижению доходности до 13,5% в долгосрочном сегменте кривой и до 15,5% - в кр...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just requalified the general evaluation of GAZPROM OAO (RU), active in the Exploration & Production industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title still shows 0 out of 4 stars and its market behaviour is seen as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the unfavourable environment weighs on the sector and penalises the company, which sees a downgrade to its general evaluation to Slightly Negative. As of the analysis date March 15, 2022,...
MARKET COMMENT - MOSCOW TRADING REMAINS HALTED WHILE EYES REMAIN ON UKRAINERussian stocks continued to see only slight trading through Russia's long weekend. That will not change today, with the CBR having decided yesterday not to allow Moscow equity trading, continuing the halt since February 25 for a sixth business day.STORIES> How the crisis is evolving> US and UK seeking to embargo Russian oil and gas imports> Gazprom's export flows remain very strong> Rostelecom posts neutral 4Q21 IFRS resu...
РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГРынок российских суверенных еврооблигаций остается неликвидным.ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИВ прошлую пятницу торги ОФЗ на МосБирже все еще не проводились. На локальном внебиржевом рынке заявки на покупку выставлялись по цене около 14-15% от номинала, заявки на продажу - около 20%. Между тем Банк России опубликовал разъяснения к последнему указу президента об обслуживании долга. Указ предусматривает, что локальные держатели облигаций и нерезиденты из "дружественных"...
CIS EUROBOND MARKETThe Russian sovereign Eurobond market remains illiquid. Fitch downgrade Russia's long-term FX Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to C from B, while JPMorgan Chase announced it will pull Russian sovereign and corporate bonds from all of its fixed-income indexes. GOVERNMENT DEBTLast Friday, OFZ trading remained suspended on the Moscow Exchange. In the local OTC market, bids were around 14-15%, while offers were near 20%.STORIES> How the crisis is evolving> US and UK seeking to embargo ...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗСША и Великобритания вводят эмбарго на импорт нефти и газа из России, экспортные доходы Газпрома растут, Ростелеком, HeadHunter, Магнит и М. Видео представили отчетность.НОВОСТИ> Как развивается кризис> США и Великобритания вводят эмбарго на импорт нефти и газа из России> Экспортные доходы Газпрома растут> Ростелеком представил нейтральные результаты за 4К21 по МСФО> Вопрос о погашении облигаций Яндекса и Ozon> HeadHunter: результаты за 4К21 несколько ниже прогнозов, выкуп а...
EME Equity Market – February 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities bled in February due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine. The MSCI EME Europe Index declined by 38.7% in EUR terms and 38.8% in USD terms. Russian stocks, represented by the MOEX Index, lost the most in February, declining by 34.6% in EUR terms and 30.0% in RUB terms. The Hungarian BUX Index lost 21.8% in EUR terms and 18.2% in HUF terms; while the Polish WIG20 Index declined by 11.7% in EUR and 9.5% in PLN. In Prague, the...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented dislocations of capital and resources, on top of human tragedies. The sanctions imposed, by the world’s key nations, on Russia, its politicians, institutions, companies and businessmen, as well as the counter-measures introduced by the Russian government, are wide-ranging and continue to be imposed on a daily basis. The most severe sanctions are related to the freezing of the CBR’s FX reserves, as well as the freezing of non-residents’ assets...
The 4Q21 earnings season is about to kick off starting with Rosneft on Friday, followed by Novatek (February 16) and Gazprom Neft (February 17) next week. Lukoil, Tatneft and Gazprom will report 4Q21 financials in March-April. We expect sector EBITDA to rise again, particularly in the gas segment amid record high European gas prices. Dividend distributions should rise across the sector as well. Based on our estimates for 4Q21, most of the companies should see their full-year financials bounce ba...
MARKET COMMENT - WATCHING FOR DIPLOMATIC, SANCTIONS NEWS AMID CYCLICAL RALLYGlobal markets were mixed, the MSCI ACWI edging down 0.1% as cyclicals gained and growth stocks waned. The RTS rose 0.6% to reach 1,445, participating in the rally for cyclicals, while mostly constructive diplomatic remarks overnight and continued appetites for cyclicals in global markets have driven gains in Russia indicators early this morning.STORIES> Diplomatic talks yield constructive remarks, events to watch> Rosat...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - РАЛЛИ В ЦИКЛИЧНЫХ СЕКТОРАХ, В ЦЕНТРЕ ВНИМАНИЯ ГЕОПОЛИТИКАДинамика глобальных рынков была неоднозначной, индекс MSCI ACWI отступил на 0,1%. Бумаги цикличных секторов дорожали, тогда как "акции роста" (growth stocks) были под давлением. На этом фоне индекс РТС по итогам дня вырос на 0,6% до 1 445 пунктов. Геополитические новости в целом были конструктивными. НОВОСТИ> Нефть дешевеет, в центре внимания вновь переговоры с Ираном> Росатом может построить атомную электростанцию ...
HEADLINES: • Russian Technology: fortune favours the brave (Yandex, HeadHunter, Ozon and QIWI stay BUY; VK upgraded to BUY) • Otokar: 4Q21 results - strong top-down beat, led by the defence segment POSITIVE • NLB Group: new SREP requirements • Gazprom: signs a 10bcm supply contract with China POSITIVE • Rosneft: to supply 10mt to China via Kazakhstan POSITIVE • Magnit: 4Q21 conference call - key takeaways NEUTRAL • Electrica: Oltchim's final table of debts shows a lower level of claims for El...
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