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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. While the dust has yet to settle, the good news is that the selloff has been largely contained to these AI-linked stocks. The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&P 500 was roughly flat yesterday. Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy, with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and WTI crude oil continuing to move lower, and...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

n this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 19.05.2022

 AT: Flughafen Wien - Q1 in line, very strong April traffic figures, potential guidance hike hinted with H1 results (positive)  AT: UNIQA - EBT ahead of RBIe on better than expected investment income, strong combined ratio (positive)  PL: PKO BP - Q1 22 bottom-line marginally ahead of expectations (neutral)  PL: PZU - Q1 earnings slightly ahead of expectations on better than expected claims performance (positive)  RU: Gazprom Neft - Gazprom Neft BoD recommends final dividends (positive)  R...

Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 29.04.2022

 AT: AMAG - Q1 results in line with RBIe but above consensus, major cash drain from NWC, FY 22 EBITDA guidance of > EUR 200 mn heralds (expected) upside to estimates (neutral)  AT: Andritz - Record order backlog, in-line results and guidance confirmed (positive)  AT: Erste Group - Q1 22 net profit beating expectations / strong core revenues offset by higher opex and weak trading result / guidance for 2022 marginally tweaked upwards / CET1 drop should be only temporary (positive)  AT: Oester...

Andrey Gromadin ... (+8)
  • Andrey Gromadin
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Cole Akeson
  • Dmitry Troshin
  • Georgiy Ivanin
  • Konstantin Samarin
  • Research Team

CIS Market Daily - February 18, 2022

MARKET COMMENT - NEW RUSSIA-US DIPLOMATIC MEETING EASES SOME MARKET CONCERNSThe RTS sank 4.9% to 1,450 yesterday, sharply underperforming peers after a series of concerning political headlines in the afternoon. However, the announcement of a meeting next week between the top Russian and US diplomats has helped ease the tensions, and RTS futures are up 1.8% early this morning. The global backdrop has also improved to mixed after a weak day for global stock markets.STORIES> EPFR: Russia sees bette...

Andrey Gromadin ... (+9)
  • Andrey Gromadin
  • Anton Chernyshev
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Cole Akeson
  • Dmitry Troshin
  • Georgiy Ivanin
  • Konstantin Samarin
  • Research Team

CIS Market Daily - 18 февраля 2022

КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - НОВАЯ ЗАПЛАНИРОВАННАЯ ВСТРЕЧА ПРЕДСТАВИТЕЛЕЙ РОССИИ И США НЕСКОЛЬКО УСПОКОИЛА РЫНОКИндекс РТС вчера снизился на 4,9% до 1 450 пунктов, сильно отстав от других развивающихся рынков после ряда тревожных политических новостей. Однако сообщение о запланированной на следующую неделю встрече российских и американских дипломатов немного сгладило ситуацию, и сегодня утром фьючерсы на индекс РТС прибавили 1,8%. Ситуация на глобальных фондовых рынках также немного улучшилась. НОВОС...

Gazprom Neft Q4 21 - WC release pushed Q4 21 FCF above expectations

EBITDA and net income were in line with projections We estimate final DPS for 2021 at RUB 15.4 Free cash flow exceeded estimates thanks to a positive WC effect of USD 0.85 bn Q4 21 results are considered as slightly positive for the stock

Anastasia Khakhaeva ... (+6)
  • Anastasia Khakhaeva
  • Andrey Gromadin
  • Cole Akeson
  • Fedor Kornachev
  • Konstantin Samarin
  • Research Team

CIS Market Daily - February 16, 2022

MARKET COMMENT - LIMITED TROOP RECALLS, CONSTRUCTIVE POLITICAL REMARKS DRIVE RALLYThe RTS soared 5% yesterday to 1,498, and morning indicators imply another sharp gain early today. A bullish global backdrop has helped, but Russia is outperforming on apparent investor hopes that limited troop recalls and constructive remarks from President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz signal an end for now to rising political risk perceptions for the market. Novatek's results and a NATO defens...

Anastasia Khakhaeva ... (+9)
  • Anastasia Khakhaeva
  • Andrey Gromadin
  • Anton Chernyshev
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Cole Akeson
  • Fedor Kornachev
  • Konstantin Samarin
  • Research Team

CIS Market Daily - 16 февраля 2022

КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - БЛАГОПРИЯТНЫЕ ПОЛИТИЧЕСКИЕ НОВОСТИ И ЗАЯВЛЕНИЯ ВЫЗВАЛИ РАЛЛИ НА РЫНКЕВчера индекс РТС вырос на 5% до 1 498 пунктов. Позитивное влияние оказал оптимизм на глобальных рынках, однако российский рынок вырвался вперед, очевидно, на надеждах инвесторов, что отвод российских воинских частей от границы с Украиной и заявления президента России Владимира Путина и канцлера Германии Олафа Шольца могут сигнализировать о снижении, по крайней мере временном, политических рисков для рынк...

Gazprom Neft Q4 21 Earnings Preview - Final DPS for 2021e might reach ...

Higher qoq oil prices and production to maintain Q4 21e revenue and EBITDA We estimate final 2021e DPS at RUB 15.5 under payout ratio of 50% of IFRS net income Q4 21e FCF should be pressed by spike qoq in capex The company is to report Q4 2021e results next week on February 17

Cole Akeson ... (+6)
  • Cole Akeson
  • Dmitry Troshin
  • Georgiy Ivanin
  • Maria Martynova
  • Research Team
  • Sergey Donskoy

CIS Market Daily - February 11, 2022

MARKET COMMENT - HIGHEST US CPI IN FOUR DECADES, NORMANDY IMPASSE SIGNAL DECLINESAlthough markets were flat to positive early in the day, the US CPI report came in higher than expected and broke a four-decade record, sending US indexes down 1.6-2.1% by the close. Russia had outperformed, the RTS climbing 0.8% to 1,547. However, the combination of global markets repricing US inflation and rates risks, and a downbeat impasse from yesterday's Normandy talks, has left major Russia indicators down 1-...

Alisa Zakirova ... (+7)
  • Alisa Zakirova
  • Ekaterina Sidorova
  • Igor Rapokhin
  • Olga Sterina
  • Research Team
  • Sergey Kolesnikov
  • FRM

Долговые рынки сегодня - 11 февраля 2022. АЛРОСА опубликовала данные п...

РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГРезкое повышение доходности гособлигаций США вчера оказало давление на цены суверенного долга развивающихся рынков. В сегменте 10-летних обязательств российские бумаги выглядели гораздо более устойчивыми, чем аналоги, и подешевели всего на 0,3 п. п. В прочих сегментах суверенных бумаг слабее рынка выглядел выпуск Россия-47 (минус 1,1 п. п.). ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИНерезиденты вчера более активно продавали ОФЗ, т. к. инфляция в США оказалась выше прогнозов, и д...

Alisa Zakirova ... (+7)
  • Alisa Zakirova
  • Ekaterina Sidorova
  • Igor Rapokhin
  • Olga Sterina
  • Research Team
  • Sergey Kolesnikov
  • FRM

Debt Markets Today - February 11, 2022. Alrosa January Sales; Nornicke...

CIS EUROBOND MARKETA sharp increase in US Treasury yields following the higher than expected US CPI prints put pressure on EM sovereign debt yesterday. Russia's 10y sovereign Eurobonds fared better than peers, dropping only 0.3 pp in price. The Russia 47 underperformed with a 1.1 pp decline.GOVERNMENT DEBTInternational offers in the OFZ market picked up yesterday after the higher than expected US CPI readings and the resulting jump in US Treasury yields. However, the mood in the market was a bit...

Anton Chernyshev ... (+7)
  • Anton Chernyshev
  • Cole Akeson
  • Dmitry Troshin
  • Georgiy Ivanin
  • Maria Martynova
  • Research Team
  • Sergey Donskoy

CIS Market Daily - 11 февраля 2022

КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - В ЦЕНТРЕ ВНИМАНИЯ ВЫСОКАЯ ИНФЛЯЦИЯ В США И ГЕОПОЛИТИКАГлобальные фондовые рынки вчера росли большую часть дня, пока в США не вышли данные, которые показали, что годовая инфляция достигла нового максимума за 40 лет. На этом фоне основные американские фондовые индексы упали на 1,6-2,1%. Индекс РТС вчера вырос на 0,8% до 1 547 пунктов. НОВОСТИ> Данные по инфляции в США вызвали резкие колебания цен на нефть; рынок ждет отчета МЭА> Сокращение выручки АЛРОСА в январе с уровня г...

Andrey Gromadin ... (+2)
  • Andrey Gromadin
  • Konstantin Samarin

Oil and Gas - Strong 4Q21 Results Expected, 1Q22 Outlook Even Brighter

The 4Q21 earnings season is about to kick off starting with Rosneft on Friday, followed by Novatek (February 16) and Gazprom Neft (February 17) next week. Lukoil, Tatneft and Gazprom will report 4Q21 financials in March-April. We expect sector EBITDA to rise again, particularly in the gas segment amid record high European gas prices. Dividend distributions should rise across the sector as well. Based on our estimates for 4Q21, most of the companies should see their full-year financials bounce ba...

GAZPROM NEFT loses on its star level and is downgraded to Slightly Pos...

The independent financial analyst theScreener just slightly lowered the general evaluation of GAZPROM NEFT (RU), active in the Integrated Oil & Gas industry. The title has lost a star(s) at the fundamental level and now shows 2 out of 4 stars. Its exposure to market risk remains nonetheless the same and can be still described as defensive. theScreener slightly downgrades the general evaluation to Slightly Positive for the title on account of the lost star(s). As of the analysis date February 8, ...

Anastasia Khakhaeva ... (+12)
  • Anastasia Khakhaeva
  • Andrey Gromadin
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Cole Akeson
  • Ekaterina Usanova
  • Fedor Kornachev
  • Konstantin Samarin
  • Maria Martynova
  • Mikhail Krasnoperov
  • Research Team
  • Sergey Donskoy

CIS Market Daily - February 8, 2022

MARKET COMMENT - WATCHING FOR DIPLOMATIC, SANCTIONS NEWS AMID CYCLICAL RALLYGlobal markets were mixed, the MSCI ACWI edging down 0.1% as cyclicals gained and growth stocks waned. The RTS rose 0.6% to reach 1,445, participating in the rally for cyclicals, while mostly constructive diplomatic remarks overnight and continued appetites for cyclicals in global markets have driven gains in Russia indicators early this morning.STORIES> Diplomatic talks yield constructive remarks, events to watch> Rosat...

Alisa Zakirova ... (+10)
  • Alisa Zakirova
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Ekaterina Sidorova
  • Igor Rapokhin
  • Maria Martynova
  • Research Team
  • Rodion Lomivorotov
  • Sergey Donskoy
  • Yuri Popov

Долговые рынки сегодня - 8 февраля 2022. Прогноз итогов заседания ЦБ Р...

РЫНОК ВНЕШНЕГО ДОЛГА СТРАН СНГДлинные российские суверенные еврооблигации в понедельник оставались под давлением из-за резкого повышения в пятницу доходностей казначейских обязательств США и сохраняющейся геополитической неопределенности. Сильнее всего на рынке подешевели выпуски Россия-43 и -47 - соответственно на 0,4 п. п. и 0,6 п. п. ГОСУДАРСТВЕННЫЕ ЦЕННЫЕ БУМАГИДоходности ОФЗ вчера повысились на 1-3 б. п., участники рынка готовились к недельным аукционам. Локальные инвесторы преимущественно ...

Alisa Zakirova ... (+11)
  • Alisa Zakirova
  • Anton Stroutchenevski
  • Artem Vinogradov
  • Cole Akeson
  • Ekaterina Sidorova
  • Igor Rapokhin
  • Maria Martynova
  • Research Team
  • Rodion Lomivorotov
  • Sergey Donskoy
  • Yuri Popov

Debt Markets Today - February 8, 2022. Macron-Putin Talks, CBR Preview...

CIS EUROBOND MARKETFriday's sharp increase in UST yields and still-high geopolitical uncertainty continued to pressure long-dated Russian sovereign Eurobonds yesterday. The biggest declines were from the Russia 43 (-0.4 pp) and Russia 47 (-0.6 pp). GOVERNMENT DEBTThe OFZ curve edged up 1-3 bps in yield yesterday, with market participants positioning themselves for the weekly auctions. Local accounts remained more active buyers, while internationals were mainly on the offer side. Volumes traded o...

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