reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Real Estate, Staples, and Health Care The S&P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month; using the 2007 SPX topping analog which has tracked the current market almost perfectly, it would suggest a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which is where we get the 5783 number. As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close a...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Utilities to Overweight Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. Current price action on the S&P 500 is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns that occurred in April 2000 and August 2007, with 2007 b...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Downgrading Consumer Discretionary to Underweight We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target which we discussed in our 8/5/24 ETF Pathfinder. Still, we have downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Blue Sky Territory for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJI Since late-February, we have discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500, and that as long as the S&P 500 is above 4983 the bulls remain in control. This area was right where this pullback halted, which is when we discussed our belief that downside was limited, followed by discussing that it was "quite possible" that the lows were in for this pullback (4/29/24 ETF Pathfinder titled "Pullback Complete?"). With the S&P 5...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
More Upside Expected; Upgrading Health Care Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we discussed would continue into the early part of 2024. Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. Bullish Outlook Intact. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are breaking out to new all-time highs, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM), mid-cap S&P 400 (IJH), Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF), ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Communications The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings. There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect a rally into year-end and the early part of 2024. Lockout Rally Continues. In our 12/4/23 ETF Pathfinder we discussed how this is a very strong market that is not likely to pull back -- and the surge higher has continued. The S...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? The S&P 500, Russell 2000 (IWM), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) continue to have trouble breaking above their respective 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280. With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout. We continue to recomm...
RRJ RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD.
TLYS TILLYS
TJX TJX COMPANIES INC
RGA REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA INCORPORATED
EVEREST RE GROUP LTD.
GPS GAP INC.
ESGR ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED
BKE BUCKLE INC.
ANF ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO. CLASS A
AEO AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC.
ACGL ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD.
ROST ROSINTER RESTAURANTS HOLDING ORD SHS
DXYN DIXIE GROUP
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST
SERIES 1
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Downgrading Technology To Underweight Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends. Sector Relative Strength Rankings. We are downgrading Technology to underweight; RS is trading within multi-month downtrends and is breaking below major support on the cap- and equal-weighted Sectors (XLK, RYT) -- reduce ex...
GBX GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC.
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
PEG PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
NI NISOURCE INC
MOS MOSAIC COMPANY
FE FIRSTENERGY CORP.
ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC.
DY DYCOM INDUSTRIES INC.
D DOMINION ENERGY INC
CF CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC.
AVD AMERICAN VANGUARD
FLR FLUOR CORPORATION
TRN TERNA S.P.A.
GATX GATX CORPORATION
WAB WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION
GNE GENIE ENERGY LTD. CL B
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
ICL ICL GROUP LTD.
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
TNX TANZANIAN GOLD
IPI INTREPID POTASH
SOM SOMEC
IWC ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
UAN ARCADIAN PARTNERS LP
OOO BETASHARES CRUDE OIL INDEX ETF - CURRENCY HEDGED SYNTHETIC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading Utilities Indexes continue to violate our key "lines in the sand" as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109. This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair. Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom. It is possible that yesterday's reversal could mark "th...
WEC WEC ENERGY GROUP INC
PPL PPL CORPORATION
PEG PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
LNT ALLIANT ENERGY CORP
ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC.
DUK DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION
D DOMINION ENERGY INC
CMS CMS ENERGY CORPORATION
AVA AVISTA CORPORATION
FTS. FORTIS INC.
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
NI NIHAO MINERAL RESOURCES INT'L
EXC EXCEET GROUP SE
PCG PG&E CORPORATION
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Communications The Russell 2000 (IWM) displays a false breakout and has now fallen back into the horizontal trading range that has plagued it for most of 2021. This false breakout combined with deteriorating breadth has us on watch for a potential breakdown below $208 on IWM and $135 on IWC. As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. On the other hand, we would turn bearish on breakdowns. Upgrading Technology, Downgrad...
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLRE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLC SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
RYH THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
XLB. INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
XLY ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
AUXLY CANNABIS GROUP INC
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Weight Of The Evidence Remains Positive Despite a more mixed and highly rotational market, the weight of the evidence remains positive, and our outlook remains constructive for the weeks and months ahead. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow, Mid-Caps, Russell 2000. Large-cap (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow) and mid-cap indexes (S&P 600) remain bullish, closing out the past week at new all-time highs. Small-caps are more mixed, as the Russell 2000 (IWM) continues a healthy consolidation of the substantial g...
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
EWCO INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT COMMUNICATION SERVICES ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Defensive Sectors Improving; Small-Caps Weakening We are beginning to get some signals which suggest the market is entering a more mixed environment. These signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, the weight of the evidence remains positive and our outlook remains constructive for the weeks and months ahead. · S&P 500, Russell 2000. The S&P 500 remains ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Remain Overweight Value, Small-Caps; Downgrading Health Care To Underweight Thus far, the market's recent consolidation phase has proven to be a buying opportunity as noted in our 3/1/21 ETF Pathfinder, supported by the reality that market dynamics remained largely positive throughout the pullback. Leadership areas including value (VTV, VBR) and small-caps (IJR) are already breaking to new price highs -- remain overweight and add exposure on pullbacks. · S&P 500. Our 3750-3694 support ...
KIE KIER GROUP PLC
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IJR ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP ETF
VTV VANGUARD VALUE ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
COPX GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF
XLYS SOURCE CONS DISC S&P US SECTOR UCITS ETF
YOLO ADVISORSHARES PURE CANNABIS ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Market Dynamics Improving; Downgrading Utilities Market dynamics and price action across the major indexes and all Sectors has been positive since early November -- and they have only improved recently. As a result, we remain bullish and recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. Below we highlight recent improvements. · Market Dynamics Improving: Commodities, 10-Year Treasury Yield. Broad commodities (DJP) are breaking above the 12.5-year downtrend, likely starting a new secular bull mar...
IBUY AMPLIFY ONLN ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
XSW SPDR S&P SOFTWARE AND SERVICES FUND
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
XSD SPDR S&P SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Communication Services We remain bullish following breakouts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 from their bullish falling wedge patterns. The Russell 2000 (IWM) has also broken above key $160 resistance. Additionally, market dynamics remain largely positive and are conducive to an ongoing bull market. Buy dips. · Key Levels. Short-term support levels to watch include $342.50 & $331 on the S&P 500 (SPY) and $283 & $273 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ); as long as the...
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500 Consolidating, Still In “Wait-And-See†Phase The S&P 500 is moving in a sideways range while the market digests the implications of states' re-opening. Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. A break below support would confirm this as a distribution phase, while a break above resistance would confirm this period as being a digestion phase. · Key Levels...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Still Searching For A Bottom In our last ETF Pathfinder (3/9/20) we noted key support levels on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&P 500 (2,830-2,855), and Dow Jones (24,681) which represented our new lines in the sand. We said we would be constructive as long as these levels held, but that we would reduce exposure on breakdowns as that would likely usher-in additional downside. Breakdowns and additional downside is what we got, and these indexes are now 17-22% lower. That leaves equities still se...
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
RHS INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER STAPLES ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
XLYS SOURCE CONS DISC S&P US SECTOR UCITS ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. •...
HYG ISHARES IBOXX $ HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BOND ETF
EWW ISHARES MSCI MEXICO CAPPED ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
DBO INVESCO DB OIL FUND
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
JNK SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
EWZS. ISHARES MSCI BZL
IWR ISHARES RUSSELL MID-CAP ETF
A1W8E4 ISHARES MSCI DENMARK CAPPED INVESTABLE MKT INDX FD
A118W4 ISHARES MSCI EUROPE MINIMUM VOLATILITY ETF
RSX.. VANECK VECTORS RUSSIA ETF
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