>FreshDirect disposal and tobacco seen negative € 330m on sales in Q1 2024 - Ahold Delhaize is set to publish its Q1 2024 results on 8 May (07:45) and host a conference call at 10:00. Compared with Q1 2023 and Q4 2023, food inflation came down further in Q1 2024 (US and Europe). Other negative effects are the deconsolidation of FreshDirect (estimated negative sales impact of $ 175m in Q1 2024), the impact of the termination of the support programmes (SNAP) in the US, ...
Based on our local coverage from Spain, the Netherlands and France and in an environment of decelerating inflation, we set the following hierarchy: Jeronimo Martins as our Top Pick for its growth potential, while in the slow-growth retail category, we favour Ahold Delhaize over Carrefour (downgraded to Neutral) or Colruyt. - >Managing inflation & food inflation deceleration: the name of the game for 2024 - The key topic for food retailers in 2024 will be how they manag...
Today, we initiate coverage on Just Eat Takeaway (JET), a global online food delivery platform with proven industry-leading margins in Northern Europe. In this note, we take a closer look at the underlying market trends, the competitive landscape and the potential impact of the sale of JET's US business, Grubhub. Following the post-pandemic normalisation, we have seen a rapid recovery in margins, driven by efficiency gains and cost savings. We expect this trend to continue into 2024, with JET al...
>Without the noise, Q4 2023 results were not a lot better than okay - Although the market reaction to Ahold Delhaize’s Q4 2023 results was positive last Wednesday (14 February), we conclude that this was mainly related to the reassuring outlook for 2024. When zooming in on the Q4 2023 results, we consider that without some one-off benefits that are included in underlying EBIT, the results were in line in the US and a bit below estimates in Europe. At a group level, th...
Following the publication of the FY23 results, we have slightly adjusted our estimates to the upside. Although the environment will remain challenging in 2024, we are pleased to see AD reiterating its historical 4.0% margin target. Further accounting for the strong FCF outlook on the back of lower net capex spend, healthy balance sheet position and royal shareholder remuneration, we believe the share price decline over the recent months is overdone. Based on an estimated 12m forward P/E of 10.0x...
>Strong top-line growth, but estimated € 94m one-off benefit in Q4 2023 EBIT - Ahold Delhaize reported sales of € 23,023m, EBIT of € 996m (margin: 4.3%) and EPS of € 0.73 in Q4 2023. Our forecasts were € 22,762m, € 931m (4.1%) and € 0.63, respectively. Consensus was € 22,934m, € 913m (4.0%) and € 0.62, respectively. Comparable sales growth was -1.0% in the US and 6.5% in Europe (ABN: -1.0% and 4.3%, consensus: -1.1% and 5.1%). EBIT profitability was 5.2% in the US and...
Rdos. 4T'23 vs 4T'22: Ventas: 23.023 M euros (-1,4% vs -2,1% BS(e) y -1,8% consenso); EBIT: 996,0 M euros (-2,9% vs -9,6% BS(e) y -11,0% consenso); BDI: 451,0 M euros (-44,3% vs -28,1% BS(e) y -28,4% consenso). Rdos. 2023 vs 2022: Ventas: 88.649 M euros (+1,9% vs +1,7% BS(e) y +1,8% consenso); EBIT: 3.604 M euros (-3,3% vs -5,2% BS(e) y -5,6% consenso); BDI: 1.874 M euros (-26,4% vs -21,2% BS(e) y -21,4% consenso).
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: IBERDROLA, SECTOR INMOBILIARIO, TELEFÓNICA. EUROPA: AHOLD, SIEMENS Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los previews de Rdos. 4T’23 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. La inflación se resiste y dispara la toma de beneficios Fuertes correcciones en las bolsas de Europa, que sufrieron después de las ampliaciones de las curvas de deuda tras la d...
Q4-23 sales were a notch better than expected thanks to Europe. Adj, operating income exceeded expectations, primarily thanks to a release of provision in the US and other settlements. FCF exceeded as well allowing AD to raise its dividend by almost 5% to EUR 1.10. Outlook allows for a small increase in estimates, while FCF guidance is above expectations. We maintain our Hold. TP unchanged at EUR 31.
En ce début d’année 2024, nous privilégions les compagnies low-cost face aux majors. Nous estimons que la dynamique capacitaire restera plus favorable sur l’intra-européen que sur les routes long-courrier, ce qui permettra une évolution plus positive du pricing pour les LCC avec un levier opérationnel plus important. Nous dégradons par conséquent IAG en Neutre (vs Surperformance) avec un OC de 2 €, Lufthansa en Neutre (vs Surperformance) avec un OC de 8.5 € et finalement Air France-KL...
At the start of 2024, we are playing low-cost carriers over majors. We think that capacity momentum will remain more favourable on intra-European routes than on long-haul routes, which will lead to a more positive pricing trend for LCCs with greater operating leverage. We are therefore downgrading our recommendation on IAG to Neutral (from Outperform), with a target price of € 2, Lufthansa to Neutral (from Outperform), with a target price of € 8.5 and lastly, Air France-KLM to Underpe...
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