reports
- Ben Pirie
Mining Monthly: April Edition
What you need to know: • The metals and mining market showed a fourth straight month of strong gains in April on the back of the escalating trade tensions. • In April, gold was up 5.6%, silver was down 4.2%, and copper was down 9.6%. The equities outperformed the commodities, with the GDX up 6.5%, GDXJ up 7.3%, and SIL up 3.3%. • Financings remained largely elevated during April, highlighting the institutional capital that has flowed into the mining sector recently. • M&A started to pick up agai...
ARG. AMERIGO RESOURCES LTD.
EDG. ENDURANCE GOLD
SCZ. SANTACRUZ SILVER MINING
NIM NICOLA MINING INC
RTP. RIO TINTO PLC CEDEAR
GIGA GIGA METALS
TOC TOCVAN VENTURES
APM ANDEAN PRECIOUS METALS CORP
PNTZF TRIGON METALS INC.
OMG OMAI GOLD MINES CORP
DNG DYNACOR GROUP INC.
MOO MOON RIVER MOLY LTD
AUAU ALLEGIANT GOLD
FISH SAILFISH ROYALTY CORP.
CAPT CAPITAN SILVER CORP
KRI KOBO RESOURCES INC.
- Ben Pirie
RIO: Construction Update for the Fenix Gold Project
What you need to know: • Rio2 provided an update on the construction progress at the Fenix Gold Project near Copiapó, Chile. As of the end of Q1, construction is 19% complete and remains on track and on budget for first gold in Q1/26. • As a reminder, The Fenix Gold Project is the largest fully permitted and financed gold heap leach project in the Americas. The management team comes from Rio Alto, which was highly successful prior to its merger with Taho Resources in a C$1.3B transaction. • We...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook We continue to view the latest pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&P 500 as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Throughout the last week of April, we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and the mounting evidence that led us to believe the lows were likely in for this pullback (4/30/24 Compass). Market dynamics remain health...
MATX MATSON INC.
EURN EURONAV NV
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
ASC ARDMORE SHIPPING
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
NVGS NAVIGATOR HOLDINGS
LPG DORIAN LPG
DSX DIANA SHIPPING INC.
LCM COSTAMARE INC.
TK TEEKAY CORPORATION
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY
GATX GATX CORPORATION
KEX KIRBY CORPORATION
WAB WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION
OSG OVERSEAS SHIPHOLDING GROUP
AA ALCOA CORPORATION
INSW INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS INC.
NOHA NORSK HYDRO ASA ADS
AWCMY ALUMINA LTD ADS
RTP. RIO TINTO PLC CEDEAR
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
NMM NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS
GSL GLOBAL SHIP LEASE INC. CLASS A
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE CLASS A
TNP TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION LTD.
FRO FRONTLINE PLC
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
HWM HOWMET AEROSPACE INC COM
GBX GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC COM
FSTR L B FOSTER CO COM
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Commodity snapSHOT - China's seasonality, illustrated
‘Sell in May and go away’. Is there a fundamental basis for this old trade expression in Commodity World? We think so, at least for China’s 1Bnt/yr steel & iron ore trades. For many years now, we’ve been flagging China-related upside risk in steel/ore trade flows and prices, in the early months of every calendar. It’s that country’s post-northern winter competitive restock, to secure its 80%-share of seaborne ore supply. This seasonal kick almost always reports across China’s trade/conversion/de...
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Restocking Indicator stays on SELL - Demand deteoriates sharp...
The Restocking Indicator is having a bearish year. The signal has reported a SELL, or very close to it, since late January. This month saw the sharpest new orders contraction since last July. Mills remain firmly in destock mode; China’s reopening trade continues to disappoint; confidence in real estate is weak. We still expect market signals to define floors in H2, with upside risk building later in the year – most likely on 2024’s industrial restock.
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Commodity redEYE - Cold War's critical commodities
Has a new Cold War begun? Based solely on the evolving commodity supply strategies of major economic powers, we think so. Key players of the last Cold War – the US, EU & Japan – have already identified commodities which they regard as ‘critical’ inputs for stable economic growth. Now, they’re moving to secure the supply chains of these inputs, mainly by activating old trade alliances. Here, we explain the catalyst for policy change + offer one definition for ‘critical’ + flag S/D/price risks for...
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Commodity snapSHOT - What value, Commodity World?
What are global commodity markets worth? About US$6.5tn – Metals, Steels and Energy. While this figure’s down a massive 20%YoY, it’s still the 3rd-highest on record. Why did it fall? Dominant driver’s the passing of 2022’s war-prompted inflation, partly a response to a US Fed-led rate hikes. Curiously, commodity supply/demand/trade shifts over the past year have been quite modest, with most markets expanding in-line with broader economic growth, while shouldering extreme price trend-shifts and v...
- Jay Turner
Canada Emerging as a Preferred Jurisdiction for Green Investments by t...
In response to the economic disruption triggered by the global pandemic, many governments have incorporated a pivot to the green economy in their economic stimulus and tax relief response plans. As part of the economic recovery, DBRS Morningstar notes that global mining companies have increasingly embraced Canada as a preferred jurisdiction for investing in new technologies necessary to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. The main focus for most mining companies has been inv...
- Ben Davis
- Tom Price
- Yuen Low
LIBERUM: Commodity redEYE - Copper’s mine supply grief, illustrated
This past year, copper’s global mining industry reported a spike in war-/energy-related costs, asset closures, project delays, geo-political constraints – across all key sources of exported metal/concentrates – particularly Chile + Peru + Panama. Popular investor requests right now? Data on size/scale of copper’s industry + state of trade flows + our forecast refined supply/demand/prices. Most are just trying to get some perspective on frequent media/industry reports on mine failures/closures. H...
- Sid Rajeev
- Sid Rajeev
RTP. RIO TINTO PLC CEDEAR
CORA CORA GOLD
GRDM GRID METALS
MTH MAMMOTH RESOURCES CORP
RCLF ROCKCLIFF METALS CORPORATION
BNXA BANXA HOLDINGS INC
EQOS DIGINEX LIMITED
KNR KONTROL TECHNOLOGIES CORP.
NEXE NEXE INNOVATIONS
IMCX INTERRA COPPER CORP.
SMP SOUTHERN EMPIRE RESOURCES CORP.
AYUR AYURCANN HOLDINGS CORP.
LITH LITHIUM CHILE INC.
- Shane Lee
2020 Asset Allocation and ASX Outlook
We expect the Australian equity market to deliver low-mid single digit returns next year. Our Dynamic Asset Allocation preference is a mild overweight to Growth assets, given the relative attractiveness of equities to both bonds and credit. In Fixed Income we prefer Global markets over Australia even though the RBA has probably more work to do. In the ASX, the Risk: Reward skew is tilted more positive for Resources than Banks, particularly in H1 as the global economy shows signs of recover...
- Shane Lee
Aussie Reporting Season Update: Cracks in the Mirror
Solid Earnings Momentum Hits a Brick Wall. Downgrades following Reporting Front Running Reporting Downgrades for stocks not reporting Cost management Rather than Revenue Growth Driving Earnings Capex for Offence and Defence Holding Steady with our View.
QBE QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED
NCM NEWCREST MINING LIMITED
FMG FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD
AWC ALUMINA LIMITED
CBA COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED
RRL REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED
TLS TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LTD
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED
SUN SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED
BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED
AAD ARDENT LEISURE
SAR SARACEN MINERAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
CSL CSL LIMITED
IOF INVESTA OFFICE FUND
COH COCHLEAR LIMITED
ABP ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP
SKC SKYCITY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
SEK SEEK LIMITED
CWN CROWN RESORTS LIMITED
PGH PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
BAL BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA LTD.
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LTD.
IGO IGO LIMITED
DOW DOWNER EDI LIMITED
TGR TASSAL GROUP LTD.
SFR SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED
SHL SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED
ILU ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED
DXS DEXUS
NVT NAVITAS LIMITED
IFN INFIGEN ENERGY
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS LTD.
SIQ SMARTGROUP
SDA SPEEDCAST INTERNATIONAL LTD
AGL AGL ENERGY LIMITED
ECX ECLIPX GROUP LTD.
VCX VICINITY CENTRES
JPM. JPMORGAN CHASE & CO.
SIG SIGMA HEALTHCARE LTD
DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA
RMD RESMED CDI
WESTPAC BANKING PFD.
RTP. RIO TINTO PLC CEDEAR
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