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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis

Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass. This is the point where it became clear that the 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that we called for in late-July (7/25/24 Int'l Compass) was over, and that a new uptrend was underway. We have also been discussing since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure, and th...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Real Estate, Staples, and Health Care The S&P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month; using the 2007 SPX topping analog which has tracked the current market almost perfectly, it would suggest a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which is where we get the 5783 number. As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close a...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. Current price action on the S&P 500 is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns that occurred in April 2000 and August 2007, with 2007 b...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Downgrading Consumer Discretionary to Underweight We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target which we discussed in our 8/5/24 ETF Pathfinder. Still, we have downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral after being bullish since early-November 2023. We believe we are not yet out of the woods as we still see the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) as going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain a concern. ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Blue Sky Territory for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJI Since late-February, we have discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500, and that as long as the S&P 500 is above 4983 the bulls remain in control. This area was right where this pullback halted, which is when we discussed our belief that downside was limited, followed by discussing that it was "quite possible" that the lows were in for this pullback (4/29/24 ETF Pathfinder titled "Pullback Complete?"). With the S&P 5...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

More Upside Expected; Upgrading Health Care Since early November 2023 we have laid out our bullish expectations for a year-end rally that we discussed would continue into the early part of 2024. Here we are in the early part of 2024, and we see every reason to continue riding this bull market higher. Bullish Outlook Intact. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI are breaking out to new all-time highs, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM), mid-cap S&P 400 (IJH), Vanguard Extended Market ETF (VXF), ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Communications The market remains in "lockout rally" mode, where prices continue to move higher with little-to-no pullbacks, while ignoring overbought readings. There is no reason to fight this bullish trend, and we continue to expect a rally into year-end and the early part of 2024. Lockout Rally Continues. In our 12/4/23 ETF Pathfinder we discussed how this is a very strong market that is not likely to pull back -- and the surge higher has continued. The S...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Fed Set to Hike 50 bps As Indexes Test Support We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). This has played-out as we recently made marginal new lows amid additional indiscriminate selling on Tuesday and Friday last week. There is potential for an oversold bounce, but we will need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day on the NYSE i...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Technology, Downgrading Communications The Russell 2000 (IWM) displays a false breakout and has now fallen back into the horizontal trading range that has plagued it for most of 2021. This false breakout combined with deteriorating breadth has us on watch for a potential breakdown below $208 on IWM and $135 on IWC. As long as these supports hold we expect more consolidation and mixed markets ahead. On the other hand, we would turn bearish on breakdowns. Upgrading Technology, Downgrad...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Neutral Outlook Is Appropriate Market dynamics have deteriorated and we are cautious yet neutral overall. Deteriorating Market Dynamics. Small-caps continue to underperform, growth is outperforming vs. value, cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Industrials, Financials) is underperforming defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care), U.S. (IWV) is outperforming foreign equities (ACWX) as the US dollar strengthens, high yield spreads are widening, the 10-year Treasury yield is below 1.40-1...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Defensive Sectors Improving; Small-Caps Weakening We are beginning to get some signals which suggest the market is entering a more mixed environment. These signals include RS improvement for defensive Sectors, RS deterioration for small-caps, and the US dollar breaking above 92. Despite this mild deterioration in market dynamics, the weight of the evidence remains positive and our outlook remains constructive for the weeks and months ahead. · S&P 500, Russell 2000. The S&P 500 remains ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Remain Overweight Value, Small-Caps; Downgrading Health Care To Underweight Thus far, the market's recent consolidation phase has proven to be a buying opportunity as noted in our 3/1/21 ETF Pathfinder, supported by the reality that market dynamics remained largely positive throughout the pullback. Leadership areas including value (VTV, VBR) and small-caps (IJR) are already breaking to new price highs -- remain overweight and add exposure on pullbacks. · S&P 500. Our 3750-3694 support ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Utilities; Downgrading Communication Services We remain bullish following breakouts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 from their bullish falling wedge patterns. The Russell 2000 (IWM) has also broken above key $160 resistance. Additionally, market dynamics remain largely positive and are conducive to an ongoing bull market. Buy dips. · Key Levels. Short-term support levels to watch include $342.50 & $331 on the S&P 500 (SPY) and $283 & $273 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ); as long as the...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Corrective Phase Continues As US Dollar Rises; Japan Showing Strength In our most recent Int'l Compass (9/11/20) we highlighted our belief that global equities (MSCI ACWI) were going through a corrective phase -- this remains true today. Additionally, we view the break above 94 in the US dollar (DXY) as a concerning development for global equities, and if $77 fails to hold on ACWI-US, the next stop is likely to be $75 and the 200-day MA. · US Dollar (DXY); Broad Global Indexes. Short-t...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Bullish Outlook Warranted; Offensive Sector Shift In our 5/18/20 ETF Pathfinder we saw the S&P 500 as consolidating and, until there was a resolution below support or above resistance, our outlook was neutral. By the end of that week, the S&P 500 had sustained a break above 2,935-2,955 resistance which set the stage for a new leg higher. Despite being short-term extended, the combination of rotations into cyclical Sectors, bottoming interest rates, narrowing high yield spreads, small- and mid-c...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Still Searching For A Bottom In our last ETF Pathfinder (3/9/20) we noted key support levels on the Nasdaq Composite (8,264), S&P 500 (2,830-2,855), and Dow Jones (24,681) which represented our new lines in the sand. We said we would be constructive as long as these levels held, but that we would reduce exposure on breakdowns as that would likely usher-in additional downside. Breakdowns and additional downside is what we got, and these indexes are now 17-22% lower. That leaves equities still se...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. •...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Add Exposure to Small-Caps; Upgrading Health Care Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps (IWM) is the latest positive development underpinning our belief that we are in the early stages of a broad-based market advance. • Small-Caps. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is decisively breaking topside $160 resistance and is making the long-awaited bullish RS reversal -- add exposure. Bullish price and RS inflections for small-caps helped ignite the broad market rally that began in early 2016, and w...

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