Highlights To-C applications growth is accelerating among mega-cap players with super apps, while emerging unicorns focus on To-B and To-prosumers in specific AI scenarios/verticals and on physical AI in verticals such as mobility and smartphone. For the next 6-12 months, we are eyeing key AI narratives: a) roll-out of super apps leveraging on agentic AI, b) leading LLMs in specific verticals unlocking monetisation potential, and c) key drivers of cloud revenue growth. Over time, we expect fur...
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
We expect Tencent’s revenue growth to remain solid at 13% yoy in 4Q25 despite macro headwinds and the ad-spend tax, continuing to benefit from inventory release and AI empowerment. We opine that near- to mid-term catalysts would include: a) multiple flagship new game launches in 2026, b) continued improvement in ad placement efficiency driven by AI, and c) the launch of AI-powered Mini Program code development tools on WeChat. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$800.00.
Top Stories Sector Update | Healthcare At the recent investor conference, global investors viewed Chinese healthcare companies with increasing interest and optimism. Impressed by their advanced R&D pipelines and swift R&D-to-market execution capabilities, investors recognised Chinese companies’ potential for innovation and growth, particularly as they presented an array of cutting-edge products ready for global markets. This positive perception reflects a growing confidence in China's healthcar...
Greater China Sector Update | Healthcare At the recent investor conference, global investors viewed Chinese healthcare companies with increasing interest and optimism. Impressed by their advanced R&D pipelines and swift R&D-to-market execution capabilities, investors recognised Chinese companies’ potential for innovation and growth, particularly as they presented an array of cutting-edge products ready for global markets. This positive perception reflects a growing confidence in China's healthca...
We reckon that the AI wave is driven by key themes including: a) recurring AI LLM/applications and cloud revenue growth, and b) a wider deployment of proprietary and data driven AI agents by vertical players to strengthen competitive moats. Amid an uncertain competitive backdrop, we opine that cloud hyper-scalers are key beneficiaries underpinned by their ecosystem scale and technological capabilities, underscoring growing investor confidence in the AI-driven sector’s re-rating. Maintain OVERWEI...
Greater China Economics | Inflation December CPI inflation rose to 0.8% yoy (+0.1ppt mom), the strongest reading ytd, with a sharp rebound in food prices. Core CPI remained at 1.2% yoy, the highest level for 2025, with goods inflation strengthening further while services inflation continued to ease slightly. PPI deflation moderated to 1.9% yoy (+0.3ppt mom), supported by improvements in mining and consumer goods pricing. Overall, the data suggests tentative price stabilisation, although defl...
Top Stories Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary, pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to an uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers. ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
China’s internet companies reported resilient 3Q25 top-line growth and continuous margin improvement in the online gaming and OTA sectors, empowered by improved AI efficiency and benign competition. Margin pressure in e-commerce due to the intense on-demand delivery competition is likely to ease in 4Q25, but could persist into 2026 given the continuous investment and tough comparison base boosted by the trade-in programme in 2025. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Alibaba, Tencent, TCOM, TME, Ne...
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Highlights We expect global liquidity cycle to remain strong for at least 1H26, following the Fed’s return to policy easing in Sep 25, benefitting emerging market assets and commodities. Chinese equities are likely to rally further, and our index target for MSCI China index target is at 104 pts based on 16.3x 12-month forward PE and 6% EPS growth assumption. We prefer exposure to growth industries like AI/semiconductors, automation/robotics, ADAS and innovative drugs and liquidity proxies ...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AEDAS, FERROVIAL, NEINOR, EUROPA: BAYER, PROSUS, UNICREDIT Las bolsas se alejan de máximos Toma de beneficios en mercado en la semana, provocada por las dudas sobre la decisión de la Fed de diciembre y la sobrevaloración acumulada del tecnológico estadounidense. En una semana de caídas en el STOXX 600, sólo S. Financieros se mantuvo en verde seguido por Hogar con las menores pérdidas mientras que el selloff de la IA estadounidense contagió a Tecno...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: CAF, TELEFÓNICA, UNICAJA. EUROPA: PROSUS. Nvidia, un impulso a las bolsas que se desinfla Los resultados publicados por la tecnológica disipan de momento las dudas en torno a la IA y provocó rebotes en los índices europeos superiores al 1% pero que se fueron moderando hacia el cierre del mercado con un Ibex que se quedó al borde de los 16.000 puntos. En el STOXX 600, Energía e Industriales fueron los que mayores ganancias presentaron frente a Autos...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACS, TELEFÓNICA. EUROPA: AIRBUS, PROSUS. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. El temor a una burbuja en la IA genera volatilidad en las bolsas Tras los máximos históricos alcanzados en la semana gracias a la esperanza de una resoluci...
COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: ACCIONA, ACCIONA ENERGÍA, ACS, AENA, COLONIAL, MERLIN, REPSOL, SANTANDER, SECTOR ELÉCTRICO, TALGO. EUROPA: ALLIANZ, PROSUS. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 3T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Toma de beneficios en mercado Las bolsas terminaron recogiendo beneficio...
Tencent’s 3Q25 earnings came in better than expected. Revenue grew 15.4% yoy to Rmb192.9b, 2-3% ahead of our and consensus estimates. Gross margin expanded 3.3ppt yoy to 56.4%, in line with consensus forecasts. Non-IFRS operating profit grew 18.4% yoy to Rmb72.6b, while non-IFRS operating margin expanded 1ppt yoy to 37.6% on a positive shift in revenue mix. Non-IFRS diluted EPS ramped up 19.5% yoy, 6.5% higher than consensus estimates. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$800.00.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in O...
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