In FICC (Fixed Income, commodities and Currencies) Research, we offer niche EM expertise, especially in EMEA. We are the go-to bank for Benelux issues, from regulations to rates to a Benelux credit focus. We have developed top notch covered bonds research, and have niche offerings in money markets, rate derivatives and European high yield. We overlay this with a global offering in macro, FX, commodities research and technical analysis. Europe is a key focus for us, but our global sphere extends to the Americas and Asia, in areas where we have selected DM & EM edges. Our analysts provide both written output and conference calls, but also travel the world to provide face-to-face presentations.

ING’s Equity Research team provides in-depth research on over 120 companies in the BeNeLux region, offering both breadth and depth of stock coverage. In addition to investment recommendations, our analysts offer thematic research, proprietary data points. insights into industry trends and unique valuation perspectives. ING’s Equity Research team was ranked the #1 Country Research team in the BeNeLux region in 2017 by the Extel Survey. Next to this, ING is the only bank to have been involved in all the BeNeLux IPOs in 2017. ING has the largest equities team focussed on Benelux listed securities and is the only Benelux broker with sales and research operations in both Amsterdam and Brussels and a sales hub in New York.

ING
Egor Fedorov ...
  • Oleksiy Soroka, CFA
  • Trieu Pham

EM Credit Spark/Trade Ideas Update

EM credit is treading water with the JPM EMBI Global Diversified settling around a spread of 410bp recently (+3bp WoW up until yesterday's close) while total returns have fallen by 0.6% over the last week as gradually higher rates (+6bp for UST10yr) have weighed. It's a fairly mixed picture in terms of individual credit performance, but on balance frontier and higher yielding credit have underperformed.

ING
Dawid Pachucki ...
  • Rafal Benecki

Polish retail sales rebound is starting to slow

Polish retail sales in September increased by 2.5% vs 0.5% year-on-year in August, close to the market expectations. Construction and assembly production fell by 9.8% YoY after a 12.1% decline in August

ING
Hendrik Wiersma

Telia/TV & Media continue to recover and further deleveraging

Telia reported a better-than-expected 3Q20 EBITDA result, while the top-line performance remained sluggish. The TV & Media operations showed a further sequential improvement albeit advertising revenue declined 12% in the quarter, but this was a significant improvement compared to the 31% deterioration in 2Q20. Announced disposals will further strengthen the balance sheet. Management remains committed to a A-/BBB+ rating. Our preferred bond is the TELIAS3.625 2/24, offering a pick-up in ASW versus Telefónica.

ING
Timothy Rahill

US Dollar Quantitative Credit Pack

CDS Performance, Sector Performance and Events Calendar. US Dollar Credit asset swap spreads and performance

ING
Timothy Rahill

Euro Quantitative Credit Pack

CDS Performance, Sector Performance and Events Calendar Euro Credit asset swap spreads and performance

ING
Warren Patterson ...
  • Wenyu Yao

The Commodities Feed: US stimulus hopes support the complex

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views

ING
Warren Patterson ...
  • Wenyu Yao

The Commodities Feed: OPEC+ JMCC holds firm

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views

ING
Warren Patterson ...
  • Wenyu Yao

The Commodities Feed: OPEC+ JMMC meets today

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING views

ING
Warren Patterson ...
  • Wenyu Yao

The Commodities Feed: Large distillate draws

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views

ING
Wenyu Yao

Aluminium: Facing turbulence with resilience

The aluminium market has faced the recent macro turbulence with some resilience and LME 3M prices rallied above US$1,850/tonne this week. Major uncertainties around some key macro events and fundamental headwinds may put any further rally in check but not necessarily stop continued resilience in the short term

ING
Chris Turner ...
  • Francesco Pesole
  • Petr Krpata, CFA

Daily FX Strategy/A little more fiscal bait

Risk assets continue to find some support from rising hopes around a pre-election fiscal stimulus bill in the US. Speaker Pelosi and Secretary Mnuchin continue to inch closer in intense talks, although the Democrats are reportedly sticking to their original $2.2tn proposal while the Government's counteroffer is at $1.88tn. Not much progress appears to have been made on bringing reluctant GOP Senators on board, and this appears to be the biggest hurdle to an agreement. This story may well remain the dominant driver for markets for the rest of this week as both parties aim to reach a potential d...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Daily FX Technical/Essential currency/FX pairs

AUD/JPY Long-term trend: Neutral. Solid support weekly chart at 74.20-73.10 Short-term trend: Neutral. Testing EMA-200 line daily chart at 74.25 AUD/NZD Long-term trend: Neutral. Falling trend line weekly chart comes in around 1.1035 Short-term trend: Neutral. Bottoming above EMA-200 line at 1.0698 AUD/USD Long-term trend: Up. Successful consolidation above former falling trend line around 0.70 in monthly chart Short-term trend: Neutral. Limited downside potential, solid support 0.7030-0.6944 EUR/AUD Long-term trend: Neutral. Bottoming, confirmed by weekly close above 1.6575 Short-term trend: ...

ING
Chris Turner ...
  • Francesco Pesole
  • Petr Krpata, CFA

Daily FX Strategy/Last chance for US stimulus hopes

After a rather weak start to the week for risk assets, investors are turning once again to the possibility of fresh US fiscal stimulus to revamp global risk appetite. Speaker Pelosi and Secretary Mnuchin appear to be inching closer to a possible agreement on the new fiscal stimulus bill and Pelosi is expected to provide more clarity on the real probabilities of a pre-election bill by the end of today, which represents an informal deadline to reach an agreement. Markets remain reasonably sceptical - even if a bipartisan deal is agreed, it is still expected to face the resistance of many Republi...

ING
Francesco Pesole

FX Positioning: Even more pro-cyclical divergence

CFTC positioning data ending 13 October shows broadly unchanged USD positioning while sterling appeared in wait-and-see mode ahead of crucial Brexit talks. Most moves were in the commodity FX space, with AUD positioning likely dropping on China trade tensions and rising RBA easing bets. CAD, instead, experienced some short squeezing

ING
Chris Turner ...
  • Francesco Pesole
  • Petr Krpata, CFA

Daily FX Strategy/USD: Caught in the middle

As we discuss in our G10 FX Week Ahead, the highlight of the week may be Thursday's presidential TV debate – a last chance for the President to make a meaningful inroad into Biden's lead. Since we put that preview together, Nancy Pelosi has set a Tuesday deadline for agreeing on a meaningful fiscal stimulus. That may keep risk assets supported a little more. What stands out at the moment, however, is the divergence in the international growth story – as evidenced by 10-year government bond yields. Looking at ranges over the last six months, Chinese yields (3.20%) are on their highs – supported...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Pull-back in Bund future uptrend

The weekly chart shows a longer-term consolidation above the lower end of the 9-year rising trend channel and slowly rising EMA-40 line, both around 173.25. The upward bias within the long-term rising trend remains intact as long if there is a weekly close above the 173.25 support level. Last week's solid rise suggests a rise towards the strong horizontal resistance area of the consolidation pattern between 176.45 and 177.30.

ING
ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ABN AMRO: 3Q20 results no more than a warm-up for the CMD. Agfa-Gevaert: Feedback from 13 October roadshow. AkzoNobel: 4% REBIT beat, €300m buyback announced with potential for more. Barco: Near term recovery expectation cut. BE Semiconductor Industries: 3Q20 preview Euronext: Quite slow trading quarter, focus on VP securities contribution, cost-control KBC: Rather normal quarter expected – strategy update Marel: Poultry EBIT beats, order intake light Orange Belgium: 3Q20 preview Proximus: BICS sale hiatus on lower international travel, disagreement on valuation? Randstad: significant ...

ING
ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ageas: 3Q20F – expect strong non-life results but weaker contribution from Asia. ALD: 3Q20 preliminary trading update. Barco: Preview 3Q20 trading update. Belgian telcos: New telecom minister, 5G auction acceleration, 4th player still an option. Fugro: Good trading update, refinancing arrives. JDE Peet's: Caps in hand.

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Uptrend in Bund future to continue above 176.29

The weekly chart shows a longer-term consolidation above the lower end of the 9-year rising trend channel and slowly rising EMA-40 line, both around 173.25. The upward bias within the long-term rising trend remains intact as long if there is a weekly close above the 173.25 support level. Last week's solid rise suggests a rise towards the strong horizontal resistance area of the consolidation pattern between 176.45 and 177.30.

ING
Hans D’Haese

Sofina/The Active Beauty/BUY (initiation of coverage)

The recent high-profile IPO of The Hut Group (ecommerce, UK), the success of Byju's (edtech, India) and the possible listing of IHS (telecom infrastructure, Nigeria) are drawing ever more attention from growth investors. Sofina is an owner of such assets and is early (co-)investing with the who's who of the US venture funds in future unicorns. Although the stock is currently trading at a 6% premium to reported NAV, based on a detailed analysis of its portfolio we are convinced that there is more to come. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and €290 target price, implying a 12-month total re...

ING
Egor Fedorov ...
  • Oleksiy Soroka, CFA
  • Trieu Pham

EM Credit Spark/Trade Ideas Update

EM credit is treading water with the JPM EMBI Global Diversified settling around a spread of 410bp recently (+3bp WoW up until yesterday's close) while total returns have fallen by 0.6% over the last week as gradually higher rates (+6bp for UST10yr) have weighed. It's a fairly mixed picture in terms of individual credit performance, but on balance frontier and higher yielding credit have underperformed.

ING
Dawid Pachucki ...
  • Rafal Benecki

Polish retail sales rebound is starting to slow

Polish retail sales in September increased by 2.5% vs 0.5% year-on-year in August, close to the market expectations. Construction and assembly production fell by 9.8% YoY after a 12.1% decline in August

ING
Hendrik Wiersma

Telia/TV & Media continue to recover and further deleveraging

Telia reported a better-than-expected 3Q20 EBITDA result, while the top-line performance remained sluggish. The TV & Media operations showed a further sequential improvement albeit advertising revenue declined 12% in the quarter, but this was a significant improvement compared to the 31% deterioration in 2Q20. Announced disposals will further strengthen the balance sheet. Management remains committed to a A-/BBB+ rating. Our preferred bond is the TELIAS3.625 2/24, offering a pick-up in ASW versus Telefónica.

ING
Timothy Rahill

US Dollar Quantitative Credit Pack

CDS Performance, Sector Performance and Events Calendar. US Dollar Credit asset swap spreads and performance

ING
Timothy Rahill

Euro Quantitative Credit Pack

CDS Performance, Sector Performance and Events Calendar Euro Credit asset swap spreads and performance

ING
Gustavo Rangel

LATAM: Political risk calls for caution

Presidential elections are scheduled in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia this year. We take a look at what the rise in political uncertainty means for economic policy and currency trading in the region

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Neutral. Solid horizontal support weekly chart comes in around -73bp Short-term trend: Down. Pressure on the yield below support at -59bp BTP future continuous contract Long-term trend: Up. Consolidating above former broken resistance line around 149.00 Short-term trend: Up. Uptrend intact, limited downside Schatz future continuous contract Long-term trend: Neutral. Strong horizontal resistance weekly chart around 112.80 Short-term trend: Up. Bullish undertone confirmed above horizontal resistance at 112.36 US 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Lower end...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Neutral. Solid horizontal support weekly chart comes in around -73bp Short-term trend: Neutral. Successfully consolidating above trend line around -54bp BTP future continuous chart Long-term trend: Up. Breaking the rising resistance line around 148.55 Short-term trend: Up. Slowly rising within the solid uptrend Buxl future continuous chart Long-term trend: Up. Higher prices are likely above EMA-40 line at 216.15 in weekly chart Short-term trend: Up. Successful consolidation above MA-50 line suggests higher prices US 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Low...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Neutral. Solid horizontal support weekly chart comes in around -73bp Short-term trend: Neutral. Limited downside, support between -54bp/-59bp BTP future continuous chart Long-term trend: Up. Resistance at upper end rising trend channel in the weekly chart around 154.80 Short-term trend: Up. New highs are confirming the uptrend Bobl future Long-term trend: Neutral. Successfully consolidating above the EMA-40 line at 134.80 Short-term trend: Neutral. Strong horizontal resistance comes in around 135.60 US 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Lower end 34-year...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Neutral. Solid horizontal support weekly chart comes in around -73bp Short-term trend: Down. Consolidating below MA-50 line at -48bp BTP future continuous contract Long-term trend: Up. Resistance at upper end rising trend channel weekly chart around 154.70 Short-term trend: Up. Consolidating after recent breakout above 146.30 Buxl future continuous chart Long-term trend: Up. Higher prices are likely above EMA-40 line at 215.40 in weekly chart Short-term trend: Up. Strong horizontal resistance around 226.70 in daily chart US 10-year yield Long-term trend: D...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield: Long-term trend: Neutral. Solid horizontal support weekly chart comes in around -73bp Short-term trend: Down. A further lower yield should be expected

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