In FICC (Fixed Income, commodities and Currencies) Research, we offer niche EM expertise, especially in EMEA. We are the go-to bank for Benelux issues, from regulations to rates to a Benelux credit focus. We have developed top notch covered bonds research, and have niche offerings in money markets, rate derivatives and European high yield. We overlay this with a global offering in macro, FX, commodities research and technical analysis. Europe is a key focus for us, but our global sphere extends to the Americas and Asia, in areas where we have selected DM & EM edges. Our analysts provide both written output and conference calls, but also travel the world to provide face-to-face presentations.

ING’s Equity Research team provides in-depth research on over 120 companies in the BeNeLux region, offering both breadth and depth of stock coverage. In addition to investment recommendations, our analysts offer thematic research, proprietary data points. insights into industry trends and unique valuation perspectives. ING’s Equity Research team was ranked the #1 Country Research team in the BeNeLux region in 2017 by the Extel Survey. Next to this, ING is the only bank to have been involved in all the BeNeLux IPOs in 2017. ING has the largest equities team focussed on Benelux listed securities and is the only Benelux broker with sales and research operations in both Amsterdam and Brussels and a sales hub in New York.

ING
Maureen Schuller

What's up in Covered Bonds/Impact of expanded PEPP on covereds uncertain

Today, the ECB decided to expand the envelope for the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) by €600bn to €1,350bn. Furthermore, the horizon for the net purchases under the PEPP will be extended by half a year at least until the end of June 2021, with net PEPP purchases to be conducted in any event until the central bank is of the opinion that the coronavirus crisis phase is over. The principal repayments under the PEPP will also be reinvested at least until the end of 2022.

ING
Petr Krpata, CFA

EUR: ECB making EUR a well-behaved passenger vs USD and GBP

The ECB delivered and the €600bn PEPP expansion further helped to stabilise EUR. The euro risk premium is currently no longer an issue. If anything, EUR seems to be modestly front running its short-term fair value. The positive ECB effect on EUR now seems exhausted, with further EUR/USD and EUR/GBP gains to be driven by issues USD and GBP are to face

ING
Carsten Brzeski

ECB: More bang and the return of the compass

The ECB has increased its PEPP programme by 600bn euro but the weak inflation outlook leaves the door open for additional stimulus in the future

ING
Jakub Seidler

The era of rapid wage growth in the Czech Republic comes to an end

Wage growth in the Czech Republic slowed from 6.2% in the previous quarter to 5%. Though slightly below market expectations, it was more positive than the central bank expected. The slowdown is likely to continue but the second quarter will be the worst

ING
James Knightley

US: Little jobs' relief despite economic re-opening

Jobless claims fell, but remain extremely elevated considering the US economy is clearly on the re-opening path. With the recovery unlikely to be especially swift the pain in the jobs market looks set to linger

ING
Warren Patterson ...
  • Wenyu Yao

The Commodities Feed: OPEC+ & the compliance issue

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING views

ING
Warren Patterson

OPEC+ set to meet again

There are growing expectations that OPEC+ will prolong current cuts for at least another month, which will help to speed up the rebalancing of the oil market. The alliance are expected to come to a decision at their next meeting, which is currently scheduled for 9-10 June, although there have been suggestions that it could be brought forward to 4 June

ING
Warren Patterson ...
  • Wenyu Yao

The Commodities Feed: OPEC+ extension

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING views

ING
Wenyu Yao

Copper growth: Still reliant on traditional sectors

Copper prices edged higher during May, and the recovery in Chinese demand has definitely played a part. But for 2020, copper demand growth is likely to rely on traditional sectors such as the transportation and construction sector

ING
Warren Patterson

The Commodities Feed: OPEC+ plans earlier meeting

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING views

ING
Petr Krpata, CFA

EUR: ECB making EUR a well-behaved passenger vs USD and GBP

The ECB delivered and the €600bn PEPP expansion further helped to stabilise EUR. The euro risk premium is currently no longer an issue. If anything, EUR seems to be modestly front running its short-term fair value. The positive ECB effect on EUR now seems exhausted, with further EUR/USD and EUR/GBP gains to be driven by issues USD and GBP are to face

ING
Prakash Sakpal

Malaysia's export resilience comes to an end

A sharp fall in exports and the widest ever trade deficit suggests the recent relief for the Malaysian ringgit from improving oil prices may not last

ING
Chris Turner ...
  • Francesco Pesole
  • Petr Krpata, CFA

Daily FX Strategy/EUR: ECB keeping the euro safe

The major focus of the ECB meeting today is on the extension of PEPP asset purchases. As per ECB Crib Sheet, the expected €500bn top-up to the ECB's PEPP should have a further stabilising effect on EUR, keeping the currency's risk premium in check (the latest larger than expected German fiscal stimulus is also beneficial for EUR). But as this is largely expected, one should not expect much beyond the stabilising effect for now, particularly when EUR/USD trades modestly overvalued on a short-term basis. The short-term overvaluation may temper any meaningful EUR/USD upside even if the ECB surpri...

ING
Petr Krpata, CFA

CEE FX: Too much too fast/ Gains to stall. HUF still more idiosyncratic

The recent CEE FX rally has been mainly driven by global factors, bringing CZK and PLN into overvalued territory on a short-term basis. This is one of the reasons why CEE FX gains should stall, while further extension of the risk-on environment (if any) should benefit EM high yielders more than CEE low yielders in terms of relative performance. The nature of the rally translated into underperformance of HUF vs CZK and PLN as the currency's prime drivers have been domestic this year. CZK morphed into a high beta of CEE FX and remains our regional favourite

ING
Francesco Pesole

US Treasury FX report preview: Three and a half manipulators

The Treasury is delaying its currency manipulation report, possibly on the back of new tensions with China - which might be labelled again despite not meeting the criteria. We estimate that Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand all exceed the thresholds, while Switzerland is dangerously close. However, we don't exclude some “free passes” being granted

ING
ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Food Lion expands in three states. Basic-Fit: Belgian, Spanish gyms opening 8 June; NL discussing earlier opening in June. Colruyt: Eying food professionals. Euronext: Milano Finanza article on Borsa Italiana. Kinepolis: Belgium allows cinemas to reopen from 1 July. Sligro: Belgian hospitality sector reopens from 8 June. Solvay: Highlights of CEO/CFO call

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Solid horizontal support area 173.25-172.85 in the Bund future

We switched from the June to the September contract. This will change support, resistance and price targets we mentioned last week.

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Waiting for confirmation below EMA-200 at 174.28 in the Bund future

We switched from the June to the September contract. This will change support, resistance and price targets we mentioned last week.

ING
ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

AMG: US investigation into vanadium imports. Avantium: Go with the Flow®. Basic-Fit: France reopening; update conditions; seems quite favourable. bpost: highlights from management virtual roadshow. D'Ieteren: VW car registrations down 40%, Febiac cuts outlook, Auto restructuring. Kinepolis: Update on reopening dates

ING
Marc Zwartsenburg, CEFA

ING Benelux Favourites and Least Favourites/Weekly performance and valuation update

In this publication we update the performance of our ING Benelux Favourites list as well as all valuation and ranking tables for our coverage universe. Performance on the front page is dated from our last comprehensive update published on 18 January 2018, while the rolling performance since inception is included on subsequent pages. The methodology for our favourites selection is based on a bottom-up approach with a focus on absolute performance with clear near-term triggers. It is a rolling list, ie, stocks can enter/exit whenever we think opportune.

ING
Maureen Schuller

What's up in Covered Bonds/Impact of expanded PEPP on covereds uncertain

Today, the ECB decided to expand the envelope for the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) by €600bn to €1,350bn. Furthermore, the horizon for the net purchases under the PEPP will be extended by half a year at least until the end of June 2021, with net PEPP purchases to be conducted in any event until the central bank is of the opinion that the coronavirus crisis phase is over. The principal repayments under the PEPP will also be reinvested at least until the end of 2022.

ING
Carsten Brzeski

ECB: More bang and the return of the compass

The ECB has increased its PEPP programme by 600bn euro but the weak inflation outlook leaves the door open for additional stimulus in the future

ING
Jakub Seidler

The era of rapid wage growth in the Czech Republic comes to an end

Wage growth in the Czech Republic slowed from 6.2% in the previous quarter to 5%. Though slightly below market expectations, it was more positive than the central bank expected. The slowdown is likely to continue but the second quarter will be the worst

ING
James Knightley

US: Little jobs' relief despite economic re-opening

Jobless claims fell, but remain extremely elevated considering the US economy is clearly on the re-opening path. With the recovery unlikely to be especially swift the pain in the jobs market looks set to linger

ING
James Knightley ...
  • Mark Cliffe

US Politics Watch: Biden – His Time?

The Covid-19 pandemic, and protests over the police killing of George Floyd, have transformed the political and economic landscape in the US. In our latest update, we have again teamed up with Oxford Analytica to examine how the turmoil could influence the presidential election in November

ING
Gustavo Rangel

LATAM: Political risk calls for caution

Presidential elections are scheduled in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia this year. We take a look at what the rise in political uncertainty means for economic policy and currency trading in the region

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Consolidating below horizontal resistance around -21bp Short-term trend: Up. Break above EMA-200 line at -38bp confirms bearish set-up BTP future continuous contract Long-term trend: Neutral. Rallying towards upper end trading range around 149.20 Short-term trend: Up. Rising trend continued above EMA-200 line at 140.80 US 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Lower end 34-year falling trend channel should be tested around -30bp in the coming years Short-term trend: Down. Waiting for a break below support around 59bp Markit iTraxx Main Index Long-term ...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Consolidating below horizontal resistance around -21bp Short-term trend: Up. Falling wedge completed above -49bp BTP future continuous contract Long-term trend: Neutral. Developing a bottom above horizontal support at 136.00 Short-term trend: Up. Rapidly improving after break above falling trend line around 139.40 Buxl future continuous chart Long-term trend: Up. Moving within a broad rising trend channel Short-term trend: Neutral. Lack of strength suggests a consolidation US 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Lower end 34-year falling trend channe...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Consolidating below horizontal resistance around -16bp Short-term trend: Neutral. Indecisive, but a lower yield seems likely BTP future continuous chart Long-term trend: Neutral. Developing a bottom above horizontal support at 136.00 Short-term trend: Neutral. Pausing and could be building momentum for a sharp up move US 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Lower end 34-year falling trend channel should be tested around 15b in the coming years Short-term trend: Down. Crucial horizontal support around 118bp Spread German 10-year yield versus 2-year yi...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Consolidating below horizontal resistance around -16bp Short-term trend: Neutral. Successful test horizontal support around -59bp BTP future continuous contract Long-term trend: Neutral. Successfully consolidating above support at 136.00 in weekly chart so far Short-term trend: Neutral. No strength and could be followed by a decline US 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Lower end 25-year falling trend channel at -30bp Short-term trend: Neutral. Consolidating above support at 59bp, but limited upside Spread US 10-year yield versus German 10-year yie...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Consolidating below horizontal resistance around -16bp Short-term trend: Neutral. Bottoming above the MA-50 line at -47bp BTP future continuous contract Long-term trend: Neutral. Developing a bottom above the horizontal support at 136.00 Short-term trend: Neutral. Gap closed at 133.73 in the daily chart US 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Lower end 25-year falling trend channel at -25bp Short-term trend: Neutral. Yield bottomed above 59bp, suggesting a consolidation Markit iTraxx Main Index Long-term trend: Up. Successful pull-back towards the fo...

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