In FICC (Fixed Income, commodities and Currencies) Research, we offer niche EM expertise, especially in EMEA. We are the go-to bank for Benelux issues, from regulations to rates to a Benelux credit focus. We have developed top notch covered bonds research, and have niche offerings in money markets, rate derivatives and European high yield. We overlay this with a global offering in macro, FX, commodities research and technical analysis. Europe is a key focus for us, but our global sphere extends to the Americas and Asia, in areas where we have selected DM & EM edges. Our analysts provide both written output and conference calls, but also travel the world to provide face-to-face presentations.

ING’s Equity Research team provides in-depth research on over 120 companies in the BeNeLux region, offering both breadth and depth of stock coverage. In addition to investment recommendations, our analysts offer thematic research, proprietary data points. insights into industry trends and unique valuation perspectives. ING’s Equity Research team was ranked the #1 Country Research team in the BeNeLux region in 2017 by the Extel Survey. Next to this, ING is the only bank to have been involved in all the BeNeLux IPOs in 2017. ING has the largest equities team focussed on Benelux listed securities and is the only Benelux broker with sales and research operations in both Amsterdam and Brussels and a sales hub in New York.

ING
Gustavo Rangel

LATAM FX Talking/Post-Covid challenges weigh on sentiment

LATAM currencies have been under pressure, underperforming EM FX generally and, somewhat surprisingly, failing to rally amid USD weakness. That performance is, however, comparable to FX trends seen in the more fragile EM economies. LATAM FX appears weighed down by negative investor sentiment towards the region, which is often considered the “new epicentre” in the Covid outbreak. Moreover, the economic impact of the pandemic is likely to exacerbate the region's existing macro fragilities. The large build-up in public debt that is taking place is particularly worrisome and may result is substant...

ING
Egor Fedorov ...
  • Oleksiy Soroka, CFA
  • Trieu Pham

EM Credit Spark/VTB Group

VTB Bank PJSC (S&P: BBB-/Stable, Moody's: Baa3/Stable) reported its 2Q/6M20 results under IFRS on 7 August (link). Our view. Results in 2Q20 were expectedly weak as a lot of clients suffered due to lockdown measures. The Covid-19 impact has just started reflecting on the bank's results with the spike in CoR, which almost erased the bank's net income in 2Q20. We think that a more conservative provisioning approach than actual would have led the bank to a net loss in 2Q20 rather marginally positive net income. 95% of net income reported for 6M20 was generated in 1Q20. The next couple of quarter...

ING
Chris Turner ...
  • Francesco Pesole

G10 FX Week Ahead: China, reflation and the dollar's slippery slope

An agreement on the US relief package, fierce retaliation by China and more data feeding into the reflation narrative may all be on the cards next week. But we suspect investors (who are increasingly looking at the possibility of negative rates by the Fed) may hold a “sell-the-rally” stance on the USD. Elsewhere, the RBNZ may adjust the size and shape of its QE

ING
Suvi Platerink Kosonen

French banks/Both BNP and Crédit Agricole report solid numbers despite the weak macro picture

We consider both BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole to have reported strong numbers for 2Q20 as the former got support from its CIB performance and the latter from Regional Banks, both unlikely to be sustained. We consider both banks to remain negatively affected by the poor economic outlook. That said, Credit Agricole has a superior capital position and a very high NPL coverage ratio, which makes it somewhat better positioned to weather Covid-19 related weakness in our view. Crédit Agricole Group's MREL policy should provide support for the ACAFP preferred senior curve trading with a pickup vers...

ING
Peter Virovacz

Hungary: Budget deficit overshoots the yearly target

The central budget deficit increased further to HUF2.16tr in the first seven months of 2020. This means the budget has already overshot the full-year target

ING
Warren Patterson ...
  • Wenyu Yao

The Commodities Feed: Oil breaks out

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING views

ING
Warren Patterson ...
  • Wenyu Yao

The Commodities Feed: Gold breaks above $2,000

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING views

ING
Wenyu Yao

Copper: Supply-side risks are subsiding

Peruvian mine production has been hit the hardest with copper production down by 20.4% year-on-year in 1H20, whereas the impact has been less on Chile. Meanwhile, Zambia production rose by 5.8% YoY in the first half of the year

ING
Wenyu Yao

Aluminium: Grinding higher with a self-fulfilling case from ShFE

Some factors that fuelled the market rally in 2Q20 have continued, including a stronger run in the Shanghai Futures Exchange that has propped up arbitrage buying in London, which has helped to reinforce expectations of robust China demand. We think the ShFE bull run is increasingly likely to be a self-fulfilling case

ING
Warren Patterson ...
  • Wenyu Yao

The Commodities Feed: Manufacturing activity supports the complex

Your daily roundup of commodity news and ING views

ING
Gustavo Rangel

LATAM FX Talking/Post-Covid challenges weigh on sentiment

LATAM currencies have been under pressure, underperforming EM FX generally and, somewhat surprisingly, failing to rally amid USD weakness. That performance is, however, comparable to FX trends seen in the more fragile EM economies. LATAM FX appears weighed down by negative investor sentiment towards the region, which is often considered the “new epicentre” in the Covid outbreak. Moreover, the economic impact of the pandemic is likely to exacerbate the region's existing macro fragilities. The large build-up in public debt that is taking place is particularly worrisome and may result is substant...

ING
Chris Turner ...
  • Francesco Pesole

G10 FX Week Ahead: China, reflation and the dollar's slippery slope

An agreement on the US relief package, fierce retaliation by China and more data feeding into the reflation narrative may all be on the cards next week. But we suspect investors (who are increasingly looking at the possibility of negative rates by the Fed) may hold a “sell-the-rally” stance on the USD. Elsewhere, the RBNZ may adjust the size and shape of its QE

ING
Iris Pang

Taiwan exports improve, thanks to electronics

Taiwan's exports have improved on a yearly basis, but that is all really down to electronics

ING
Prakash Sakpal

Malaysia's June manufacturing beats forecast

Industrial production growth is still in negative territory but was far better than anyone was expecting. That said, our view of an 8.3% year-on-year GDP contraction in the second quarter remains at risk of a downside miss

ING
Chris Turner ...
  • Francesco Pesole
  • Petr Krpata, CFA

Daily FX Strategy/USD: A payrolls miss could outweigh geopolitics

USD: Downside risks from a payroll miss - While encouraging signs from a slowdown in initial jobless claims failed to provide material support to the dollar, escalating Sino-American tensions surely did. President Trump has taken its battle against Chinese tech firms to the next level by banning US residents from doing business with TikTok (or its parent company) and WeChat and tightened disclosure requirements for Chinese companies listed in the US. Asian equities are slipping, USD/CNY has rebound to the 6.96/6.97 area (despite booming Chinese exports numbers overnight), and risk-sensitive cu...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Bearish key reversal in Bund future

• The weekly chart shows a longer-term consolidation above the lower end of the 9-year rising trend channel, currently around 173.10, and the horizontal support around 170.75. We would not be surprised that this will continue for months, with prices currently trading above the EMA-40 line at 175.15. The risk for a downside breakout below the support area 173.10-170.75 is increasing.

ING
ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ageas: Strong set of results - intention to pay dividend by year end Corbion: Bittersweet

ING
ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Adecco (Not Rated): 2Q20 results review; beat vs consensus. Euronav: 2Q20 results fine but uncertainty rising. Euronext: July shows mid-single digit YoY growth. Fagron: In-line 1H20, Covid-19 boost offsets weakening Compounding trends K. BC: Ups NII guidance (€4.4bn), maintains impairment outlook (€1.1bn). Kinepolis: Mulan Disney+ release another blow to Cinema chains . NN GROUP: Operating results, OCG and solvency beat . SBM Offshore: Good contracts supportive to 1H20. Sligro Food Group: Foodstep stats improving, but still a long way to go

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Bund future closed above crucial horizontal resistance at 177.75

• The weekly chart shows a longer-term consolidation above the lower end of the 9-year rising trend channel, currently around 173.10, and the horizontal support around 170.75. We would not be surprised that this will continue for months, with prices currently trading above the EMA-40 line at 175.15. The risk for a downside breakout below the support area 173.10-170.75 is increasing.

ING
ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Bumper results – the sequel Arcadis: Another legacy issue gone bpost: Strong beat on 2Q20, outlook 2020 raised but 2020 dividend cancelled Just Eat Takeaway: Deal with AmRest - Amazon stake Deliveroo cleared Benelux Insurance: a.s.r. to resume payment of postponed dividend and SBB

ING
Egor Fedorov ...
  • Oleksiy Soroka, CFA
  • Trieu Pham

EM Credit Spark/VTB Group

VTB Bank PJSC (S&P: BBB-/Stable, Moody's: Baa3/Stable) reported its 2Q/6M20 results under IFRS on 7 August (link). Our view. Results in 2Q20 were expectedly weak as a lot of clients suffered due to lockdown measures. The Covid-19 impact has just started reflecting on the bank's results with the spike in CoR, which almost erased the bank's net income in 2Q20. We think that a more conservative provisioning approach than actual would have led the bank to a net loss in 2Q20 rather marginally positive net income. 95% of net income reported for 6M20 was generated in 1Q20. The next couple of quarter...

ING
Suvi Platerink Kosonen

French banks/Both BNP and Crédit Agricole report solid numbers despite the weak macro picture

We consider both BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole to have reported strong numbers for 2Q20 as the former got support from its CIB performance and the latter from Regional Banks, both unlikely to be sustained. We consider both banks to remain negatively affected by the poor economic outlook. That said, Credit Agricole has a superior capital position and a very high NPL coverage ratio, which makes it somewhat better positioned to weather Covid-19 related weakness in our view. Crédit Agricole Group's MREL policy should provide support for the ACAFP preferred senior curve trading with a pickup vers...

ING
Peter Virovacz

Hungary: Budget deficit overshoots the yearly target

The central budget deficit increased further to HUF2.16tr in the first seven months of 2020. This means the budget has already overshot the full-year target

ING
James Knightley

US jobs report - the worst possible outcome?

The US created more jobs than expected in July. The risk is this eases the pressure on politicians to agree on an immediate fiscal deal. With confidence already under pressure, incomes being squeezed by benefit cuts and Covid containment measures hurting job prospects, we are entering a more challenging period for the economy

ING
Bert Colijn ...
  • Jakub Seidler
  • James Knightley
  • Peter Virovacz
  • Piotr Poplawski
  • Prakash Sakpal

Our view on next week's events

Discover what ING analysts are looking for next week in our global economic calendars

ING
Gustavo Rangel

LATAM: Political risk calls for caution

Presidential elections are scheduled in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia this year. We take a look at what the rise in political uncertainty means for economic policy and currency trading in the region

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Neutral. Weekly close above -22bp is bearish for bonds Short-term trend: Neutral. Bottoming scenario violated below -50bp BTP future continuous contract Long-term trend: Neutral. Pounding against the horizontal resistance barrier around 147.20 Short-term trend: Neutral. Successfully consolidating above former resistance at 146.70 in daily chart Spread German 10-year yield versus 2-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Still expecting an inverted yield curve Short-term trend: Neutral. Flattening will continue below 15bp US 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. L...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Neutral. Weekly close above -22bp is bearish for bonds Short-term trend: Neutral. Developing another falling wedge pattern BTP future continuous chart Long-term trend: Neutral. Could move towards upper end trading range around 147.20 Short-term trend: Up. Slowly rising after the recent break above horizontal resistance at 143.65 Buxl future continuous chart Long-term trend: Up. Moving within a broad rising trend channel Short-term trend: Neutral. Sideways below strong horizontal resistance around 221.30 US 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Lower end of ...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Neutral. Weekly close above -22bp is bearish for bonds Short-term trend: Neutral. Large trading range between -59bp and -16bp BTP future continuous contract Long-term trend: Neutral. Could move towards the upper end of the trading range around 147.20 Short-term trend: Up. Consolidating around the horizontal resistance at 143.65 US 10-year yield Long-term trend: Down. Lower end 34-year falling trend channel should be tested around -32bp in the coming year Short-term trend: Neutral. Still no clear trend and moving sideways US 30-year yield Long-term trend: D...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield: Long-term trend: Neutral. Weekly close above -22bp is bearish for bonds. Short-term trend: Up. Bottoming above MA-50 line at -44bp

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor/Essential short-term trend developments

German 10-year yield Long-term trend: Neutral. Weekly close above -22bp is bearish for bonds Short-term trend: Up. Bottom above flat MA-50 line at -44bp BTP future continuous contract Long-term trend: Neutral. Could move towards upper end trading range around 147.20 Short-term trend: Neutral. Strong horizontal resistance coming in around 143.65 Buxl future continuous chart Long-term trend: Up. Moving within a broad rising trend channel Short-term trend: Neutral. Showing a series of lower highs since the May high at 221.18 Spread US 10-year yield versus US 3-month Long-term trend: Neutral. Tren...

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