Report
Peter Thilo Hasler

Ambitionierte, aber erreichbare Guidance 2018e

Nach einem übernahmebedingten Wegfall zweier Großkunden, der Verschiebung von Aufträgen ins Jahr 2018 und infolge von Einmaleffekten lagen die heute veröffentlichten Eckdaten für 2017 unter unseren Erwartungen. Aufgrund des teilweisen Einmalcharakters der genannten Einflussfaktoren und infolge zahlreicher Neukundenabschlüsse des Vorjahres, die erst 2018e ihre volle Wirksamkeit entfalten werden, hat der Vorstand für 2018e eine ambitionierte, jedoch u. E. erreichbare Guidance ausgesprochen, die ein mehr als 40%iges Umsatzwachstum sowie das Erreichen einer „schwarzen operativen Null“ vorsieht. Nach Überarbeitung unseres Finanzmodells haben wir unser aus einem dreistufigen DCF-Entity-Modell abgeleitetes Kursziel auf EUR 3,80 von bislang EUR 4,00 je Aktie (Base Case-Szenario) zurückgenommen. Angesichts eines Kurssteigerungspotenzials von 90% bestätigen wir unser Buy-Rating für die Aktien der amalphi AG.

Underlying
medondo holding AG, formerly amalphi AG

medondo holding AG is a Germany-based company that offers multivendor services for the maintenance of information technology (IT) infrastructure. The Company's warranty extension service concept covers hardware and servers from various manufactures, such as Dell, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Cisco and Oracle, among others. The service offering is available worldwide and includes Third Party Maintenance, based on flexible customer-specific Service Level Agreements (SLAs), amalphi Investment Protection (IP), which also assumes the risk and cost of system failure, and additional services, including managed services, roll-outs, removals and certified data carrier destruction, among others. The Company cooperates with Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM). Its customers include businesses ranging from small and medium enterprises to large corporations, as well as professional IT providers, including cloud and data center providers and system houses.

Provider
Sphene Capital GmbH
Sphene Capital GmbH

Founded in 2010, Sphene Capital is a German based pure-play research house offering state-of-the-art research and evaluation services to European small- and mid-caps by avoiding typical conflict of interests of traditional investment banks.

As a general rule, analysts of Sphene Capital strive to understand companies better than any other analyst or investor before publishing their initiation reports. Therefore, the comprehensive initiation research reports comprise of 50-80 pages, including an extensive analysis of the value chain of the IPO candidate, its unique selling proposition, an elaborate analysis of suppliers and clients, a thorough SWOT analysis, a commercial due diligence (i. e. market and competitive analysis), an integrated financial forecast model and a profound company valuation (both DCF methodology and peer group multiples). Before publication, each of Sphene Capital’s research report will be double-checked by a fellow research colleague (“Four-eyes-principle”), ensuring highest quality and avoiding careless mistakes.

After initiation of research coverage, Sphene Capital publishes regular updates of 12-30 pages following relevant news flow from the issuer or major peers, f. ex. after acquisitions or after publication of quarterly results.

Due to Sphene Capital’s extensive experience in equity and bond research, the team has established longstanding contacts to all relevant market players, i. e. institutional investors, family offices and high net-worth individuals as well as journalists. To each of these groups, Sphene Capital’s research analysts have regular contacts during analyst and management roadshows or via daily phone calls. Finally, analysts publish articles in selected stock markets magazines and websites in which the analysts help issuers to improve their popularity on the German capital markets.

Analysts
Peter Thilo Hasler

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