Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 233.43 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Encouraging Signs, But Not Out Of The Woods

Positive news flow surrounding COVID-19 is encouraging on many fronts, and we welcome headlines such as peaking infections/deaths in Italy & Spain, certain European governments making plans to ease lockdowns, and that US death projections were likely overestimated. Despite encouraging news and the S&P 500 (SPX) hitting multi-week highs, market signals continue to suggest that this is a fairly standard bear market rally, making us believe the broad equity market is not yet out of the woods and remains vulnerable.

· S&P 500 Levels. Short-term support held at 2447-2455 and the SPX may have formed a higher low last week (still TBD). For now this suggests the bulls remain in control in the short-term, however the SPX finds itself in the 2,637-2,740 resistance zone that we highlighted in last week's Compass. If the SPX chews through that resistance, 2,855-2,900 remains another potential resistance area... see chart below.

· Problem Areas Still A Problem. While the SPX closed yesterday above last week's high, the same cannot be said of the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) or several “problem areas” (i.e., serial laggards and/or areas significantly affected by COVID-19 and countrywide shutdowns). Some of these problem areas include airliners, small-caps, Materials, WTI crude, homebuilders, retail/Discretionary, Financials/banks, and high yield bonds. It would be premature to suggest the market has bottomed until we see more participation from these areas... see pages 2-5.

· Rally Near Later Stages? Last week we pointed out that multiple 15-25% bear market rallies are not uncommon. Six of the eight 15%+ bear market rallies that took place during 2008-2009 and 2001-2002 produced gains between 21% and 25%. The SPX is now up 22.1% trough to peak from the March low. We admit that the sample size is small, but we find it noteworthy that these bear market rallies were capped at 25%.

· Gold, Gold vs. S&P 500. We remain bullish on the price of gold, however gold outperforming the S&P 500 is often bearish for the broad equity market... see page 6.

· High Yield Spreads, Breadth, US Dollar. We are watching for high yield spreads to narrow and stay below 800-850 bps, for breadth to improve consistent with prior major bottoms, and for the dollar to weaken in order to have confidence in a market bottom... see page 7-8.
Underlyings
Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company serving patients and families affected by rare diseases through the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies. The company has developed and commercialized two complement inhibitors to treat patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria and atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome, as well as the complement inhibitor to treat anti-acetylcholine receptor antibody-positive generalized myasthenia gravis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder in patients who are anti-aquaporin-4 antibody positive. In addition, the company has two enzyme replacement therapies for metabolic disorders, hypophosphatasia and lysosomal acid lipase deficiency.

Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Arena Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company focused on delivering medicines with pharmacology and pharmacokinetics to patients globally. The company's clinical programs include: etrasimod (APD334), which is being evaluated in ulcerative colitis, a program for Crohn's disease, as well as a program for atopic dermatitis; olorinab (APD371), which is is being evaluated for a range of visceral pain conditions associated with gastrointestinal diseases and for treatment of abdominal pain associated with irritable bowel syndrome; and APD418, which is being evaluated in a trial for acute heart failure.

Astec Industries Inc.

Astec Industries designs, engineers, manufactures and markets equipment and components used primarily in road building and related construction activities as well as other products. The company also manufactures certain equipment and components unrelated to road construction, including equipment for the mining, quarrying, construction and demolition industries and port and rail yard operators; gas and oil drilling rigs; water well and geothermal drilling rigs; industrial heat transfer equipment; commercial whole-tree pulpwood chippers; horizontal grinders; blower trucks; concrete plants; wood pellet plants; commercial and industrial burners; and combustion control systems.

Bandwidth Class A

Bandwidth is a cloud-based communications platform-as-a-service (CPaaS) provider. The company's solutions include a range of software Application Programming Interfaces for voice and text functionality and its owned and managed, purpose-built Internet Protocol voice network. The company's operating segments include: CPaaS, which provides Voice, Messaging, 911 and Phone Numbers solutions through the company's proprietary CPaaS software application programming interfaces; and other, which consists of services provided such as SIP trunking, data resale, and a hosted Voice-over Internet Protocol and from traffic generated by other carriers, Short Message Service registration and other miscellaneous product lines.

Blueprint Medicines Corp.

Blueprint Medicines is a precision therapy company focused on genomically defined cancers, rare diseases and cancer immunotherapy. The company has one precision therapy approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration, and is developing investigational medicines in clinical development, along with various research programs including: Avapritinib, which is for the treatment of systemic mastocytosis (SM); BLU-263, which is for the treatment of indolent SM and other mast cell disorders; pralsetinib, which is for the treatment of RET-altered non-small cell lung cancer, medullary thyroid carcinoma, and other solid tumors; and fisogatinib, which is for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Cameco Corporation

Cameco and its subsidiaries are engaged in the exploration for and the development, mining, refining, conversion and fabrication of uranium for sale as fuel for generating electricity in nuclear power reactors in Canada and other countries. Co. has three reportable segments: uranium, which explores for, mines, mills, purchases, and sells uranium concentrate; fuel services, which refines, converts and fabricates uranium concentrate, and purchases and sells conversion services; and electricity, which generates and sells electricity through its 31.6% interest in the Bruce Power Limited Partnership, which operates four nuclear reactors and manages the overall site in southern Ontario.

Cardinal Health Inc.

Cardinal Health is a healthcare services and products company providing customized solutions for hospitals, healthcare systems, pharmacies, ambulatory surgery centers, clinical laboratories and physician offices. The company's segments include: Pharmaceutical and Medical. The company's Pharmaceutical segment distributes branded and generic pharmaceutical, specialty pharmaceutical and over-the-counter healthcare and consumer products in the United States. The company's Medical segment manufactures, sources and distributes Cardinal Health branded medical, surgical and laboratory products, which are sold in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia and other markets.

Catalent Inc

Catalent is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a provider of delivery technologies and development solutions for drugs, biologics and consumer health products. The company operates in four segments: Softgel Technologies, which provides formulation, development and manufacturing services for soft capsules; Biologics and Specialty Drug Delivery, which provides drug substance development and manufacturing; Oral Drug Delivery, which provides various formulation development and manufacturing technologies; and Clinical Supply Services, which provides manufacturing, packaging, storage, distribution, project management, and inventory management for drugs and biologics in clinical trials.

Catasys Inc.

Catasys is using predictive analytics, artificial intelligence and telehealth, combined with human intervention to deliver improved member health and cost savings to health plans. The company applies data analytics and predictive modeling to identify members with untreated behavioral health conditions, whether diagnosed or not, and coexisting medical conditions that may be impacted through treatment in the OnTrak program. The company's technology enabled OnTrak solution is an integrated suite of services that includes evidence-based psychosocial and medical interventions delivered either in-person or via telehealth, nurse-led care coaching and local community support.

Charter Communications Inc. Class A

Charter Communications is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a cable operator and a broadband communications company providing video, Internet and voice services. The company also provides its mobile service to residential customers. In addition, the company sells video and online advertising inventory to local, regional and national advertising customers and communications and managed solutions to enterprise customers. The company also owns and operates regional sports networks and local sports, news and community channels. The company owns and operates a two-way telecommunications network which passes various households and small and medium businesses across United States.

Citrix Systems Inc.

Citrix Systems is an enterprise software company. The company markets and licenses its solutions through multiple channels worldwide, including selling through resellers, direct and over the Web. The company's partner community comprises thousands of value-added resellers known as Citrix Solution Advisors, value-added distributors, systems integrators, independent software vendors, original equipment manufacturers and Citrix Service Providers. The company provides solutions and services that it categorizes into three inter-related and complementary areas: Workspace, Networking and Professional Services.

Dollar General Corporation

Dollar General is a discount retailer. The company's consumables products includes paper and cleaning products, packaged food, perishables, snacks, health and beauty, pet, and tobacco products. The company's seasonal products include decorations, toys, batteries, small electronics, greeting cards, stationery, prepaid phones and accessories, gardening supplies, hardware, automotive and home office supplies. The company's home products include kitchen supplies, cookware, small appliances, light bulbs, storage containers, frames, candles, craft supplies and kitchen, bed and bath soft goods. The company's apparel includes casual everyday apparel, as well as socks, underwear, disposable diapers, shoes and accessories.

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. ADS

Easterly Government Properties Inc

Easterly Government Properties is an internally managed real estate investment trust focused primarily on the acquisition, development and management of Class A commercial properties that are leased to U.S. Government agencies. The operations of the company's is carried on primarily through Easterly Government Properties LP (the Operating Partnership) and the wholly owned subsidiaries of the Operating Partnership. The Operating Partnership holds substantially all of the company's assets and conducts substantially all the company's business.

Grocery Outlet Holding

Grocery Outlet is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company owns and operates a chain of grocery stores in the United States. The company offers products in various categories, such as grocery, dairy and deli, produce, refrigerated and frozen, floral, beer and wine, general merchandise, and health and beauty care, as well as fresh meat and seafood; and natural, organic, specialty, and healthy products. As of Mar. 30, 2019, the company operates 323 stores across the West Coast and Pennsylvania, including the company's expansion into Southern California.

Hormel Foods Corporation

Hormel Foods is primarily engaged in the production of meat and food products and the marketing of those products throughout the United States and internationally. The company's segments are: Grocery Products, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of shelf-stable food products; Refrigerated Foods, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of branded and unbranded pork, beef, chicken, and turkey products; Jennie-O Turkey Store, which consists of the processing, marketing, and sale of branded and unbranded turkey products; and International and Other, which includes Hormel Foods International Corporation that manufactures, markets, and sells the company's products internationally.

IDEX CORP

IDEX is an applied solutions business that sells pumps, valves, flow meters and other fluidics systems and components and engineered products. The company's segments are: Fluid and Metering Technologies, which designs, produces and distributes positive displacement pumps, flow meters, injectors and other fluid-handling pump modules and systems; Health and Science Technologies, which designs, produces and distributes fluidics, rotary lobe pumps, centrifugal and positive displacement pumps, roll compaction and drying systems; and Fire and Safety/Diversified Products, which designs, produces and distributes firefighting pumps, valves and controls, rescue tools, and lifting bags.

INCYTE CORP

Incyte is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of therapeutics. JAKAFI (ruxolitinib) has been approved for the treatment of patients with intermediate or high-risk myelofibrosis, for the treatment of patients with polycythemia vera, and for the treatment of steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease in adult and pediatric patients 12 years and older. The company has also obtained a license to develop and commercialize ICLUSIG (ponatinib) in Europe and other select countries. In the European Union, ICLUSIG is approved for the treatment of adult patients with chronic phase, accelerated phase or blast phase chronic myeloid leukemia.

Inphi Corporation

Inphi is a provider of analog and mixed signal semiconductor solutions for the communications and datacenter markets. The company's analog and mixed signal semiconductor solutions provide an interface between analog and mixed signals and digital information in systems such as telecommunications transport systems, enterprise networking equipment and datacenters. The company has a range of products in its portfolio, including products that have commercially shipped, products for which the company has shipped engineering samples and products under development, that perform a range of functions such as amplifying, encoding, multiplexing, demultiplexing, and retiming signals at speeds up to 400 Gbps.

Intel Corporation

Intel is a data-centric company. The company's operating segments are: Data Center Group, which develops platforms for compute, storage, and network functions; Internet of Things Group, which facilitates its customers creating, storing, and processing data; Mobileye, which provides assistance and automation solutions; Non-Volatile Memory Solutions Group, which provides memory and storage products based on Intel? Optane? technology and Intel? 3D NAND technology; Programmable Solutions Group, which provides programmable semiconductors; and Client Computing Group, which connects people to data, allowing each person to focus, create, and engage in ways that unlock their individual potential.

Johnson & Johnson

Johnson & Johnson is a holding company engaged in the research and development, manufacture and sale of a range of products in the health care field. The company has three business segments: Consumer, which includes a range of products focused on personal healthcare used in the beauty, over-the-counter pharmaceutical, baby care, oral care, women's health and wound care markets; Pharmaceutical, which is focused on six therapeutic areas: immunology, infectious diseases, neuroscience, oncology, cardiovascular and metabolism and pulmonary hypertension; and Medical Devices, which includes products used in the orthopaedic, surgery, interventional solutions, and eye health fields.

Juniper Networks Inc.

Juniper Networks designs, develops and sells products and services for networks. The company sells its products in three geographic regions: Americas; Europe, Middle East, and Africa; and Asia Pacific. The company sells its network products and service offerings across routing, switching, and security technologies. In addition, the company provides its customers services, including maintenance and support, services, and education and training programs. The company's products and services address network requirements for its customers within its vertical: Cloud, Service Provider, and Enterprise. The company's portfolio addresses domains in the network: core; edge; access and aggregation; data centers; and campus and branch.

Kinross Gold Corporation

Kinross Gold is engaged in the mining and processing of gold and, as a by-product, silver ore and the exploration for, and the acquisition of, gold bearing properties in the Americas, the Russian Federation, West Africa and worldwide. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s proven mineral reserves for gold and silver were 1,122 ounces and 1,179 ounces respectively.7,883 7,883 7,883

Livongo Health

Livongo Health is engaged in Applied Health Signals, which is involved in the management of chronic conditions. The company's platform provides cellular-connected devices, supplies, informed coaching, and data science-enabled insights and facilitates access to medications across multiple chronic conditions. The company provides the following solutions: Livongo for diabetes; Livongo for hypertension; Livongo for prediabetes and weight management; and Livongo for behavioral health by myStrength.

MarketAxess Holdings Inc.

MarketAxess Holdings operates an electronic trading platform that enables fixed-income market participants to trade corporate bonds and other types of fixed-income instruments using its patented technology. Through its Open Trading? protocols, the company executes trades in certain bond between and among institutional investor and broker-dealer clients. The company also provides trading-related products and services, including: Composite+ pricing and other market data products to assist clients with trading decisions; auto-execution and other execution services for clients requiring specialized workflow solutions; connectivity solutions that facilitate straight-through processing; and technology services.

Moderna Inc.

Moderna is creating a new generation of medicines based on messenger RNA to improve the lives of patients. The company uses its platform to identify and develop new mRNA medicines. When the company identifies a combination of platform technologies or programs across mRNA technologies, delivery technologies, and manufacturing processes that can enable shared product features across multiple potential mRNA medicines, it groups those programs as a modality. The company has created six modalities including prohylactic vaccines; cancer vaccines; intratumoral immuno-oncology; localized regenerative therapeuctics; systemic secreted therapeutics; and systemic intracellular therapeutics.

Moody's Corporation

Moody's is a provider of credit ratings and assessment services; credit, capital markets and economic research, data and analytical tools; software solutions that support financial risk management activities; quantitatively derived credit scores; learning solutions and certification services; and company information and business intelligence products. The company's segments are: Moody's Investors Service, which publishes credit ratings on a range of debt obligations and the entities that issue such obligations in markets worldwide; and Moody's Analytics, which provides financial intelligence and analytical tools to assist businesses in making decisions.

NetScout Systems Inc.

NetScout Systems provides service assurance and security solutions that are used by customers to assure their digital business services against disruption. Using its Adaptive Service Intelligence technology, the company's solutions convert network traffic data, often referred to as wire data, into metadata, or smart data, the company's offerings can help customers identify and troubleshoot network and application performance issues, defend their networks from distributed denial of service attacks, and find and isolate network threats. The company's products are categorized as service assurance solutions for network and application performance, and business intelligence analytics and cybersecurity solutions.

NeuBase Therapeutics

NeuBase Therapeutics is a biotechnology company focused on developing therapies to treat rare genetic diseases and cancers caused by mutant genes. The company is developing antisense oligonucleotide therapies using its modular PATrOL? platform. The company's PATrOL?-enabled therapies act by binding to the mutant pre-RNA or messenger RNA primary sequence (or secondary or tertiary conformations) to prevent translation by ribosomes into mutant proteins or otherwise eliminate a pathogenic feature of the mutant transcript. The company's product pipeline comprised of NT0100 Program and NT0200 Program.

NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA engages in graphics processing unit (GPU)-based visual computing and accelerated computing platforms. The company has two segments, GPU and Tegra Processor, which are based on a single underlying architecture. The company's GPU product brands are aimed at markets including GeForce for gamers; Quadro for designers; Tesla and DGX for artificial intelligence data scientists and big data researchers; and GRID for cloud-based visual computing users. The company's Tegra brand integrates an entire computer onto a single chip, and incorporates GPUs and multi-core CPUs to drive supercomputing for autonomous robots, drones, and cars, as well as for game consoles and mobile gaming and entertainment devices.

PetMed Express Inc.

PetMed Express is a pet pharmacy. The company markets prescription and non-prescription pet medications, and other health products for dogs and cats, direct to the consumer. These pet supplies include: food, beds, crates, stairs, strollers, and other pet supplies. The company's non-prescription medications and supplies include flea and tick control products, bone and joint care products, vitamins, treats, nutritional supplements, hygiene products, and supplies. The company's prescription medications include heartworm and flea and tick preventatives, arthritis, dermatitis, thyroid, diabetes, pain medications, heart/blood pressure, and other medications, as well as generic substitutes.

Post Holdings Inc.

Post Holdings is a consumer packaged goods holding company. The company's segments are: Post Consumer Brands, which manufactures, markets and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products; Weetabix, which markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal products; Foodservice, which produces and distributes egg and potato products; Refrigerated Retail, which produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg, cheese, sausage and other refrigerated products; and BellRing Brands, which markets and distributes ready-to-drink protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars and supplements in the nutrition category.

Sanofi S.A. ADS

Silicon Motion Technology Corporation Sponsored ADR

Stantec Inc

Stantec is a provider of comprehensive professional services in the area of infrastructure and facilities for clients in the public and private sectors. Co.'s services include planning, engineering, architecture, interior design, landscape architecture, surveying and geomatics, project management, environmental sciences, and project economics for infrastructure and facilities projects.

Tradeweb Markets Inc. Class A

Tradeweb Markets is a leader in building and operating electronic marketplaces for its global network of clients across the financial ecosystem. The company's network is comprised of clients across the institutional, wholesale and retail client sectors, including many of the large global asset managers, hedge funds, insurance companies, central banks, banks and dealers, proprietary trading firms and retail brokerage and financial advisory firms, as well as regional dealers. The company's marketplaces facilitate trading across a range of asset classes, including rates, credit, money markets and equities. The company is a global company serving clients in 62 countries with offices in North America, Europe and Asia.

Union Pacific Corporation

Union Pacific, through its operating subsidiary, Union Pacific Railroad Company, is a Class I railroad operating in the United States. The company's network included route miles, linking Pacific Coast and Gulf Coast ports with the Midwest and eastern United States. gateways and providing several corridors to key Mexican gateways. The company serves the western two-thirds of the country and maintains coordinated schedules with other rail carriers for the handling of freight to and from the Atlantic Coast, the Pacific Coast, the Southeast, the Southwest, Canada, and Mexico. The company's business mix includes agricultural products, energy, industrial, and premium.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated

Vertex Pharmaceuticals is focused on developing and commercializing therapies for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) and developing research and development programs in other indications. The company's marketed products are TRIKAFTA (elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor and ivacaftor), SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI (tezacaftor in combination with ivacaftor), ORKAMBI (lumacaftor in combination with ivacaftor) and KALYDECO (ivacaftor), which are approved to treat patients with CF who have specific mutations in their cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene. The company is evaluating CTX001, a genetic therapy as a potential treatment for sickle cell disease and beta-thalassemia.

Virtu Financial Inc. Class A

Virtu Financial is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the company is a financial firm. The company has two operating segments: Market Making, which principally consists of market making in the cash, futures, and options markets across global equities, options, fixed income, currencies and commodities; and Execution Services, which provides agency execution services and trading venues that provide transparent trading in global equities, ETFs, fixed income, currencies, and commodities to institutions, banks and broker dealers, as well as provides soft dollar and commission recapture programs.

Weis Markets Inc.

Weis Markets is engaged in the retail sale of food in Pennsylvania. The company's retail food stores sell groceries, dairy products, frozen foods, meats, seafood, fresh produce, floral, pharmacy services, deli products, prepared foods, bakery products, beer and wine, fuel and general merchandise items, such as health and beauty care and household products. The store product selection includes national, local and private brands including natural, gluten-free and organic varieties. All retail food store locations operate as conventional supermarkets. The company utilizes a loyalty marketing program, Weis Club Preferred Shopper, which enable customers to receive discounts, promotions and fuel rewards.

West Pharmaceutical Services Inc.

West Pharmaceutical Services is a manufacturer in the design and production of containment and delivery systems for injectable drugs and healthcare products. The company's products include packaging, containment solutions, reconstitution and transfer systems, and drug delivery systems, as well as contract manufacturing, analytical lab services and integrated solutions. The company's segments are: Proprietary Products, which provides packaging, containment and drug delivery products, analytical lab services and integrated solutions; and Contract-Manufactured Products, which is focused on the design, manufacture, and automated assembly of devices, for pharmaceutical, diagnostic, and medical device customers.

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp

Wheaton Precious Metals is engaged in the silver mining business.

Xilinx Inc.

Xilinx designs and develops programmable devices and associated technologies, including: integrated circuits (ICs) in the form of programmable logic devices (PLDs), including programmable System on Chips and three-dimensional ICs; Adaptive Compute Acceleration Platform, a multi-core heterogeneous compute platform; software design tools to program the PLDs; software development environments and embedded platforms; targeted reference designs; printed circuit boards; and intellectual property (IP), which consists of the company and third-party verification and IP cores. In addition to its programmable platforms, the company provides design services, customer training, field engineering and technical support.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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