>Signs of tighter control - At a sell-side dinner in London, Thomas Toepfer (Airbus CFO) reiterated the FY 2024 guidance and the group’s priorities. Our key takeaways: The main priority remains ramping up production, with Airbus on track to meet its targets of 75 A320s/month, 14 A220s, 4 A330s (in FY24) and 10 A350s in FY 2026, even if supply chain management remains a challenge, particularly for engines, APUs and the availability of certain raw materials and cab...
>Les signes d’une meilleure maitrise - Lors d’un diner sell-side organisé à Londres, Thomas Toepfer (CFO d’Airbus) a réitéré les guidance FY 24 et ses priorités. Nous retenons notamment : La principale priorité reste la montée en cadence, Airbus s’estimant en ligne avec ses objectifs de 75 A320/mois, 14 A220, 4 A330 (en FY 24) et 10 A350 en FY 26 même si la gestion de la supply chain reste un défi, en particulier pour les moteurs, les APU, la disponibilité de cer...
A director at Airbus SE sold 600 shares at 156.220EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing...
>Boeing negotiates the acquisition of Spirit Aerosystems - Boeing has just confirmed that it is in talks with Spirit Aerosystems, the spin-off undertaken 20 years ago, with a view to its acquisition. Boeing is by far Spirit's biggest customer but Airbus nonetheless represented some 19% of its sales in 2023 i.e. $ 1,145m (22% in 2022). Spirit became an Airbus supplier in 2006 via the acquisition of BAE Aerostructures, which was reinforced in 2020 by the acquisition of ...
>Boeing négocie la reprise de Spirit Aerosystems - Boeing vient de confirmer la tenue de discussions avec Spirit Aerosystems, spin-off réalisé il y a une vingtaine d’année, en vue de sa reprise. Boeing est de loin le premier client de Spirit mais Airbus représentait tout de même 19% de son CA en 2023 i.e. 1 145 M$ (22% en 2022). Spirit est devenu fournisseur d’Airbus en 2006 via l’acquisition de BAE Aerostructures renforcé en 2020 par l’acquisition des actifs d’aérost...
Campari shares are starting to show signs of flagging against the backdrop of a weaker-than-expected Q3 2023, a controversial acquisition in cognac, and dilution following the January capital increase. In addition, as the group diversifies, its profile increasingly resembles that of a pure player such as Pernod Ricard and Diageo, for which long-term growth and valuation levels are lower. By revising down our long-term growth estimates for Campari, we are lowering our target price to €...
Le titre Campari commence à montrer des signes de faiblesses sur fond d’un T3 23 inférieur aux attentes, d’une acquisition controversée dans le cognac, et de la dilution suite à l’augmentation de capital de janvier. En outre, à mesure que le groupe se diversifie, son profil s’apparente à celui d’un pure player comme Pernod Ricard et Diageo, dont les niveaux de croissance de long terme et de valorisation sont inférieurs. En réduisant la croissance de long terme du groupe italien, nous ...
>Preparation for ramp-up of pace of production still acting as a drag in FY 2024 - We have cut our FY 2024 EPS estimates by 4.6%, mainly to factor in more substantial costs linked to the completion of the development of the A321XLR version (entry into service scheduled for Q3 2024 vs Q2 2024 initially) and especially the ramp-up of the rate of production and its consequences in terms of the lower productivity of new hires. To ensure the internal supply chain is in goo...
>La préparation de la montée en cadence pèse encore sur FY 24 - Nous avons coupé nos BPA FY 24 de 4.6% essentiellement afin d’intégrer des coûts plus importants liés à la finalisation du développement de la version A321XLR (entrée en service T3 2024 vs T2 2024 initialement) et surtout à la préparation de la montée en cadence et ses conséquences en termes de moindre productivité des nouvelles recrues. Afin que la supply chain interne soit en ordre de marche, Airbus a r...
GALP, TotalEnergies and Shell have discovered vast oil deposits off the coast of Namibia. Oil services companies see this as a new Eldorado. FPSO-type solutions seem to be favoured, making SBM Offshore a key player, not forgetting subsea companies such as TechnipFMC. The whole sector could help local economic development... and/or have major negative impacts on local communities, biodiversity or the fight against corruption. Not to mention the carbon lock-in. We would therefore urge i...
GALP, TotalEnergies ou Shell ont découvert de colossaux gisements de pétrole au large des côtes namibiennes. Les sociétés de services y voient un nouvel eldorado. Les solutions de type FPSO semblent être privilégiées, mettant ainsi SBM Offshore en position d’acteur incontournable, sans oublier ceux liés au subsea comme TechnipFMC. Tout le secteur pourrait aider au développement économique local… et/ou avoir des impacts négatifs importants sur les communautés locales, la biodiversité o...
>Q4 beat on FCF but a 2.7% miss on adj. EBIT - Airbus has just released its Q4 2023 results that were broadly in line with expectations. EBIT was € 2,207m (+2.8% y-o-y), 2.7% below the consensus (ODDO BHF: € 2,312m, consensus: € 2,268m) for sales of € 22.9bn i.e., a margin of 9.6% (-75bp). FCF was € 3,349m (ODDO BHF: € 3,522m, consensus: € 2,837m) i.e. € 4.4bn for the full year thanks to pre-payments on the signing of orders and higher delivery rates. Q4 was driven by...
>Q4 beat on FCF but a 2.7% miss on adj. EBIT - Airbus has just released its Q4 2023 results that were broadly in line with expectations. EBIT was € 2,207m (+2.8% y-o-y), 2.7% below the consensus (ODDO BHF: € 2,312m, consensus: € 2,268m) for sales of € 22.9bn i.e., a margin of 9.6% (-75bp). FCF was € 3,349m (ODDO BHF: € 3,522m, consensus: € 2,837m) i.e. € 4.4bn for the full year thanks to pre-payments on the signing of orders and higher delivery rates. Q4 was driven by...
The ESG themes addressed during this year’s forum centred around the 3 “T”s: Transparency, with the implementation of the CSRD; Talent, a theme where the issues of attraction and retention are as relevant as ever; and Transition, with some companies in the process of adapting their business models to embrace sustainability-related topics. Our favorite ESG profiles are those of GEA Group, Intertek, Carbios, SPIE, Elis, UCB and, to a certain extent, Bekaert. - ...
Cette année, les thématiques ESG abordées lors du Forum se dessinent autour des 3 « T » : Transparence, avec la mise en œuvre de la CSRD, Talents : les enjeux d’attraction et de rétention restent prégnants ; Transition : un virage des modèles d’activité vers des thématiques de durabilité est engagé pour certains acteurs. Côté valeurs, nous apprécions le profil ESG de GEA Group, Intertek, Carbios, SPIE, Elis, UCB et dans une certaine mesure, Bekaert. - ...
>The acceleration in hiring takes a toll in Q4 2023… - For FY 2023, we lowered our estimate for adjusted EBIT (-3.8%) mainly to reflect a bigger impact than initially expected from the acceleration in hiring aimed at ensuring the future ramp-up of production rates in the civil aviation activity. We model adjusted EBIT of € 5,943m (vs guidance of € 6bn) on revenue of € 64.2bn, i.e. a margin of 9.3%(-32bp). In Q4 2023, adjusted EBIT should come to € 2,312m (+7.7%) with ...
>L’accélération des recrutements pèse sur le T4 2023… - Sur 2023, nous avons révisé à la baisse notre EBIT Ajusté (-3.8%) essentiellement afin de refléter un poids plus important que prévu initialement de l’accélération des recrutements visant à assurer la montée en cadence à venir sur l’activité civile. Nous modélisons un EBIT Ajusté de 5 943 M€ (vs guidance de 6 Md€) pour un CA de 64.2 Md€, soit une marge de 9.3% (-32pb). Sur le seul T4 2023, l’EBIT Ajusté devrait r...
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