reports
- Valens Research
DINO - Valens Credit Report - 2024 06 06
Credit markets are accurately stating DINO's credit risk with a YTW of 6.012% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.632% and an Intrinsic CDS of 110bps. Meanwhile, Moody's is overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its Baa3 credit rating two notches lower than Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI report continues to suggest a more restrictive Fed policy than the market has been expecting. This raises the possibility of further consolidation for small- and mid-caps. Meanwhile, large-cap indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) remain bullish, finding support at their respective 20-day MAs since November 2023; the only question is whether that will continue to be the case, as our main concern remains rising Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY), which have bro...
EME EMCOR GROUP
TPC TUTOR PERINI CORPORATION
STRL STERLING CONSTRUCTION COMPANY INC.
PWR QUANTA SERVICES INC.
PSX PHILLIPS 66
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
NVEE NV5 GLOBAL INC.
MUSA MURPHY USA INC.
MPC MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION
GVA GRANITE CONSTRUCTION INCORPORATED
CVI CVR ENERGY INC.
BWXT BWX TECHNOLOGIES INC.
FLR FLUOR CORPORATION
MYRG MYR GROUP INC.
PRIM PRIMORIS SERVICES CORPORATION
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
ARCAY ARCADIS N.V.
ROAD CONSTRUCTION PARTNERS
PSN PARSONS
IESC IES HOLDINGS INC.
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
J JACOBS SOLUTIONS INC.
- Valens Research
- Valens Research
DINO - Valens Credit Report - 2023 11 16
Credit markets are overstating DINO's credit risk with a YTW of 7.024% relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 5.924% and an Intrinsic CDS of 127bps. Furthermore, Moody's is overstating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its Baa3 credit rating two notches lower than Valens' IG4+ (Baa1) credit rating. Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights mostly positive signals for credit holders. Management's compensation framework should drive them to focus on all three value drivers: margins, asset ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Downgrading Manufacturing to Market Weight Near-term we continue to see the S&P 500 moving higher, likely heading toward 4600 resistance. We also still believe it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the S&P 500, and we see a low probability of a meaningful correction if the SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support). As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we would not be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of ...
PSX PHILLIPS 66
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
CVI CVR ENERGY INC.
CCO. CAMECO CORPORATION
EFR ENERGY FUELS
MPC. MADISON PACIFIC PROPERTIES INC. CL B
ARLP ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS L.P.
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
LEU CENTRUS ENERGY CORPORATION
HCC WARRIOR MET COAL INC.
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
ARCH ARCH RESOURCES INC. CLASS A
DNN DA NANG WATER SUPPLY JSC
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
CLMT PURPOSE ENERGY TRANSITION FUND
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
ime For A Rest We believe a pause, or a pullback is increasingly likely when some areas of the market become extended. For instance, the QQQ's achieved the second highest extension above its 200-day moving average in the last 20-years. The previous period occurred in September of 2020 when the Fed was in the midst of a record amount of stimulus during the Covid Pandemic. We remain constructive on the S&P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4443). Short t...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
MPC, PSX, VLO, DINO, PBF, CVI, DK, ESNT, MTG, RDN, NMIH, BRK.B, CB, MKL, CINF, ERIE, CNA, LII, FIX CSWI Upgrading Financials to Market Weight Fitch's U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder. We remain bullish on the S&P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415). Short ...
RDN RADIAN GROUP INC.
PSX PHILLIPS 66
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
MKL MARKEL CORPORATION
FIX COMFORT SYSTEMS USA INC.
ESNT ESSENT GROUP LTD.
ERIE ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY CLASS A
CVI CVR ENERGY INC.
CB CHUBB LIMITED
CSWI CSW INDUSTRIALS
MPC. MADISON PACIFIC PROPERTIES INC. CL B
CNA CNA FINANCIAL CORPORATION
MTG MGIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION
NMIH NMI HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
CINF CI GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE PRIVATE POOL
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Small-Caps Starting to Lead We continue to see the current environment as a bear market rally with the potential for it turn into something more following bullish breadth thrust signals. Large-cap US indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100) have been treading water for a week (bull flags?), but many other indexes such as the Russell 2000 (IWM), DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI), and China Internet (KWEB) have continued to move higher following their bullish reversals from the prior two weeks. We are also ...
IMO. IMPERIAL OIL LIMITED
WLK WESTLAKE CHEMICAL CORPORATION
SU. SUNCOR ENERGY INC.
PSX PHILLIPS 66
OEC ORION ENGINEERED CARBONS SA
KOP KOPPERS HOLDINGS INC.
CVI CVR ENERGY INC.
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
MX. METHANEX CORPORATION
CNQ. CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED
MPC. MADISON PACIFIC PROPERTIES INC. CL B
ARLP ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS L.P.
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
YANZHOU COAL MINING CO. LTD. ADS
VVV VALVOLINE INC.
HCC WARRIOR MET COAL INC.
BTU PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
CNX CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION
ARCH ARCH RESOURCES INC. CLASS A
PBE INVESCO DYNAMIC BIOTECHNOLOGY & GENOME ETF
OVV OVINTIV INC
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Bear Market Rally With Potential for More In last week's Compass (May 24) we noted the S&P 500 was testing support at 3800-3860 within its downtrend channel and that we were on watch for a potential bear market rally/oversold bounce. This has officially begun following the break above 4030 on the S&P 500, which was confirmed by bullish reversals on the Russell 2000 (IWM), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), DAX, Hang Seng, MSCI China (MCHI), and China Internet (KWEB). For now, we are treating this as a bear mark...
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
MUSA MURPHY USA INC.
EURN EURONAV NV
CVI CVR ENERGY INC.
ALB ALBEMARLE CORPORATION
LPG DORIAN LPG
GLOP GASLOG PARTNERS LP
DLNG DYNAGAS LNG PARTNERS LP
CC CARTHAGE CEMENT
OLN OLIN CORPORATION
MPC. MADISON PACIFIC PROPERTIES INC. CL B
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
HP HELMERICH & PAYNE INC.
PTEN PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY INC.
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
INSW INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS INC.
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
SMHI SEACOR MARINE HOLDINGS
A2DSYC LINDE PLC
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
BORR BORR DRILLING
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
NBR NABORS INDUSTRIES LTD.
PDu PRECISION DRILLING
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
S&P 500 Downtrend Channel Intact & Testing Support We see the S&P 500 as trading within a downtrend channel; as long as it remains within this channel, our intermediate to long-term outlook is bearish at the index level. With that said, the S&P 500 is currently testing support within the downtrend channel, and we are on watch for a potential bear market rally. S&P 500. Last week, on May 18th, the NYSE had a 93% downside volume day, effectively negating the May 13th 92% upside day. Still, the 3...
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION
VRTX VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED
SU. SUNCOR ENERGY INC.
PSX PHILLIPS 66
PBR.N PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S/A ADS
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
MUSA MURPHY USA INC.
MRO MARATHON OIL CORPORATION
HES HESS CORPORATION
EOG EOG RESOURCES INC.
DVN DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION
CVI CVR ENERGY INC.
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
CNO CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
MPC. MADISON PACIFIC PROPERTIES INC. CL B
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
APA APA CORPORATION
IMO IMMORENTE INVEST SA
OVV OVINTIV INC
AMGN AMGEN INC
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Fed Set to Hike 50 bps As Indexes Test Support We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). This has played-out as we recently made marginal new lows amid additional indiscriminate selling on Tuesday and Friday last week. There is potential for an oversold bounce, but we will need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day on the NYSE i...
PSX PHILLIPS 66
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
MUSA MURPHY USA INC.
CVI CVR ENERGY INC.
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
CNO CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
CLMT CALUMET SPECIALTY PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P.
EEM ELECTRICITE ET EAUX DE MADAGASCAR
MPC. MADISON PACIFIC PROPERTIES INC. CL B
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
ACWX ISHARES MSCI ACWI EX US ETF
IMO IMMORENTE INVEST SA
OVV OVINTIV INC
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
OOOO OOOOO ENTERTAINMENT COMMERCE LTD.
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