Global EM Telcos What is the likely impact of the Iran war on EM Telc...

Oil prices create a macro headwind to the EM telco sector, as was seen after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, as the cliché says, history doesn’t repeat, it rhymes, and with many emerging countries mandating work from home we think this time is more likely to be a mix of Covid (positive) and Ukraine (negative) to EBITDA growth. This note shows what happened in these two previous shocks to help investors navigate the next few quarters.

INFORME DIARIO 23 ABRIL + RDOS. ESPAÑA Y EUROPA 1T’26. IDEAS DESTACADA...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: BANKINTER, REPSOL, SECTOR INMOBILIARIO, TELEFÓNICA. EUROPA: ESSILORLUXOTTICA, L’OREAL, NOKIA, SAFRAN, SANOFI Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 1T’26 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Un mercado con mucha incertidumbre A pesar de la prórroga del alto al fuego las bolsas ...

IBERIAN DAILY 23 APRIL + 1Q’26 RESULTS. HIGHLIGHTS AND REST OF PREVIEW...

NEWS SUMMARY: BANKINTER, REAL ESTATE SECTOR, REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA. At the end of today’s report, and during the entire results season, we will include a presentation with positive and negative results highlights and previews for the 1Q’26 results to be released over the coming days in Spain. Stock markets are facing significant uncertainty European stock markets were disappointed by the uncertainty surrounding the talks between Iran and the US and despite the extension of the ceasefire, with th...

IBERIAN DAILY 08 APRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: AEDAS HOMES, ALMIRALL, INDRA, REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA. Rally on the markets thanks to the two-week ceasefire European stock markets began the session with gains, then losing ground and ending with losses, with no announcement of a deal to end the ultimatum. Late last night it was learned that Iran and the US agreed to a two-week ceasefire that includes opening the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel, which supports the ceasefire, will continue to attack Lebanon. In the STOXX 600, most sect...

INFORME DIARIO 08 ABRIL (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AEDAS HOMES, ALMIRALL, INDRA, REPSOL, TELEFÓNICA. EUROPA: DANONE. Los mercados rebotan por la tregua de dos semanas Las bolsas europeas comenzaron la jornada con ganancias, pero fueron perdiendo terreno hasta terminar con pérdidas a la espera de que se anunciase un acuerdo que pusiera fin al ultimátum. Pasada la medianoche se conocía que Irán y EE.UU. acordaban una tregua por 2 semanas que incluye el desbloqueo del estrecho de Ormuz mientras que Is...

Telefonica (Reduce, €3.3, -15%) Was €2.6. Telecom Italia (Neutral, €0....

Today my colleague Chris has upgraded his forecasts and valuation of Vivo and this leads to an upgrade in our value of Telefonica

Global EM Telcos & Towers – Surprisingly resilient, so far – NSR GEM T...

EM Telcos have been resilient to what is the biggest macro shock since the Ukrainian war, with our portfolio down 5% in March, but still up 11% ytd, well ahead of broader markets.

INFORME DIARIO 13 MARZO (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: BBVA, IAG, TELEFÓNICA. El crudo y las dudas en crédito privado lastran la confianza en las bolsas Aumentan las caídas en los índices europeos, con el S&P 500 jugándose el soporte de los 6.700 puntos. El Euro STOXX 50 tocó la referencia de los 5.750 puntos por las tensiones en Medio Oriente (el Brent volvió a los 99 d/b) y las preocupaciones sobre el crédito privado. En el STOXX 600, los mejores sectores fueron Químicas y Utilities mientras que Via...

IBERIAN DAILY 13 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: BBVA, IAG, TELEFÓNICA. Crude oil and private credit drag down stock market confidence European stock markets fell further, with the S&P 500 on the verge of falling below the 6,700 point support. The Euro STOXX 50 hit 5,750 due to the tension in the Middle East (Brent returned to US$ 99/barrel) and the concerns on private credit. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors were Chemicals and Utilities, whereas Travel & Leisure and Banks suffered the biggest corrections. On the m...

Global EM Telcos & Towers The impossible dream – NSR GEM Top-10 March...

2025 was such a strong year for EM Telcos with the result that while remaining bullish we thought it was not plausible that 2026 would be as strong. Yet if anything the year has started better than 2025, with our picks up 18% ytd already, and up 113% since the start of 2025.

IBERIAN DAILY 02 MARCH (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

NEWS SUMMARY: AMADEUS, AMPER, CAF, IBERDROLA, REDEIA, TALGO, TELEFÓNICA, UNICAJA. We begin a highly volatile week European stock markets ended last week with corrections whereas doubts persist in the technology sector and the geopolitical tension between the US and Iran continues. The Ibex endured battery of earnings and ended above 18,000 points. In the STOXX 600, the best-performing sectors last week were Utilities and Real Estate, whereas Basic Materials and Telecoms had the biggest drops....

INFORME DIARIO 02 MARZO + RDOS. EUROPA. PREVIEWS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABAD...

COMPAÑÍAS QUE APARECEN EN EL INFORME: ESPAÑA: AMADEUS, AMPER, CAF, IBERDROLA, REDEIA, TALGO, TELEFÓNICA, UNICAJA. Incluido en el informe diario de hoy, y durante toda la campaña de resultados, incorporamos al final una presentación con los resultados destacados en positivo y negativo y previews de Rdos. 4T’25 que se publicarán en España y Europa en los próximos días. Empezamos una semana de elevada volatilidad Las bolsas europeas cerraron la semana con pérdidas, mientras persisten las dudas e...

EM Telcos Pricing power returns; where best; why (some) EM Telcos’ mu...

The resumption of pricing power is one of the key drivers of the rally in EM Telcos and perhaps the area where consensus is most sceptical. In this note we analyse which markets have the greatest potential for sustained pricing power, looking at key issues: affordability and regulatory and competitive structure.

Telefonica (Sell, €2.6, -28%) Brazil is trying to save the day – but ...

Q4 results were solid and the new 2026 guidance is marginally ahead of consensus, albeit all the medium-term CMD targets remain intact.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 02/24/2026

TELEFÓNICA: 4Q’25 RESULTS (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

4Q'25 vs. 4Q'24 Results Sales: € 9.174 Bn (-14.3% vs. -15.5% BS(e) and -15.0% consensus); EBITDA: € 3.198 Bn (+88.0% vs. +82.8% BS(e) and +85.3% consensus); EBIT: € -1.775 Bn (€ -511.0 M in FY2024 vs. € -1.300 Bn BS(e) and € -1.203 Bn consensus); Net Profit: € -3.239 Bn (€ -1.003 Bn in FY2024 vs. € -1.201 Bn BS(e) and € -1.425 Bn consensus); FY2025 vs. FY2024 Results Sales: € 36.145 Bn (-12.1% vs. -12.4% BS(e) and -12.3% consensus); EBITDA: € 12.164 Bn (+9.9% vs. +9.1% BS(e) and +9.5% consensus)...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 24/02/2026

Telefonica : Small 2026 FCF guidance upgrade

Telefonica : Small 2026 FCF guidance upgrade

TELEFÓNICA: RDOS. 4T’25 (ANÁLISIS BANCO SABADELL)

Rdos. 4T'25 vs 4T'24: Ventas: 9.174 M euros (-14,3% vs -15,5% BS(e) y -15,0% consenso); EBITDA: 3.198 M euros (+88,0% vs +82,8% BS(e) y +85,3% consenso); EBIT: -1.775,0 M euros (-511,0 M euros en 2024 vs -1.300,0 M euros BS(e) y -1.203,0 M euros consenso); BDI: -3.239,0 M euros (-1.003,0 M euros en 2024 vs -1.201,0 M euros BS(e) y -1.425,0 M euros consenso). Rdos. 2025 vs 2024: Ventas: 36.145 M euros (-12,1% vs -12,4% BS(e) y -12,3% consenso); EBITDA: 12.164 M euros (+9,9% vs +9,1% BS(e) y +9,5%...