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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 Testing Prior Breakout Level DeepSeek appears to have turned the chatbot market upside-down, putting pressure on AI-linked stocks. While the dust has yet to settle, the good news is that the selloff has been largely contained to these AI-linked stocks. The rest of the market did not seem to care; the equal-weighted S&P 500 was roughly flat yesterday. Additionally, market dynamics remain healthy, with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and WTI crude oil continuing to move lower, and...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Bull Flag Supports Continued strong economic data has reduced the number of expected Fed rate cuts, which has pushed long-term Treasury bond yields and the U.S. dollar (DXY) above some key levels, putting some pressure on the broad market indexes. The Bloomberg Commodity index (DJP) is breaking above the key $33.25 resistance level, while WTI crude oil is breaking above its 1+ year downtrend. Upside is likely to be capped due to these concerns, but we still continue ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook We continue to view the latest pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&P 500 as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Throughout the last week of April, we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and the mounting evidence that led us to believe the lows were likely in for this pullback (4/30/24 Compass). Market dynamics remain health...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke
ACM AECOM
EME EMCOR GROUP ... (+25)

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Major Risk-On Developments; Bullish Outlook Intact Over the past two weeks we have discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and the mounting evidence that suggests the lows may be in for this pullback (4/30/24 Compass). Major risk-on developments for the broad equity market have continued to roll in over the past week, which we discuss below. As a result, we continue to believe the lows are in for this pullback, and we see the pullback to the 100-day MA on t...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging & Frontier Markets The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days -- and even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). The Fed's next move is almost guaranteed to be a cut (though when it happens is up for debate). And ...

Gatx Corp: 1 director

A director at Gatx Corp sold 2,500 shares at 105.465USD and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Downgrading Technology To Underweight Our outlook remains bearish at the index level considering we have yet to see any developments that suggest a bottom is in, and the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Russell Micro Cap (IWC) indexes remain in downtrends. Sector Relative Strength Rankings. We are downgrading Technology to underweight; RS is trading within multi-month downtrends and is breaking below major support on the cap- and equal-weighted Sectors (XLK, RYT) -- reduce ex...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

GATX - Valens Credit Report - 2021 10 19

Cash bond markets are understating credit risk, with a YTW of 2.033%, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 2.823%. Furthermore, Moody's is understating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its Baa2 credit rating three notches higher than Valens' HY1 (Ba2) credit rating Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that management's compensation framework does not punish management for overleveraging the balance sheet or over-spending on assets, potentially limiting cash available for servicin...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

Valens Equity Insights and Inflections - 2021 08 17

The market is pricing in a reckoning for the memory chip supply market, to which ICHR is a key supplier. Expectations are for the company's earning power to fade to historically low levels, even as the memory market is in a secular growth cycle. The market expects Ichor, which has seen UAFRS-based ROA (Uniform ROA or ROA′) remain above 20% in each of the last seven years, to fade to an all-time low. This seems to be ignoring both Ichor's dominant position in its sub-industry and the memory mar...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

GATX - Embedded Expectations Analysis - 2021 08 16

GATX Corporation (GATX:USA) currently trades at a discount to Uniform asset values, with a 0.9x Uniform P/B. At these levels, the market is pricing in expectations for profitability to expand, but management may have concerns about lease rates, long-run fleet levels, and the feasibility of investment into the aircraft engine space. Specifically, management may have concerns about the pace of the recovery of lease rates, their fleet levels, and the remaining opportunity for smaller fleets follo...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

Valens Credit Weekly Insights - 2021 08 04

Valens Credit Research team highlights GATX, which has a compelling bond offering that we believe the market is currently mispricing, with strong fundamentals, favorable management alignment, and an actionable trade.

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

GATX - Valens Credit Report - 2021 08 03

Cash bond markets are understating credit risk, with a YTW of 1.553%, relative to an Intrinsic YTW of 2.523%. Furthermore, Moody's is understating the firm's fundamental credit risk, with its Baa2 credit rating three notches higher than Valens' HY1 (Ba2) credit rating Incentives Dictate Behavior™ analysis highlights that management's compensation framework does not punish management for overleveraging the balance sheet or over-spending on assets, potentially limiting cash available for servicin...

 PRESS RELEASE

GATX Corporation Announces Quarterly Dividend

GATX Corporation Announces Quarterly Dividend CHICAGO, July 30, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The board of directors of GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) today declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per common share, payable September 30, 2021, to shareholders of record on September 15, 2021. This quarterly dividend is unchanged from the prior quarter. COMPANY DESCRIPTIONGATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) strives to be recognized as the finest railcar leasing company in the world by our customers, our shareholders, our employees and the communities where we operate. As the leading global railcar lesso...

 PRESS RELEASE

GATX Corporation Reports 2021 Second-Quarter Results

GATX Corporation Reports 2021 Second-Quarter Results Net income for the second quarter 2021 was $5.5 million or $0.15 per diluted shareResults include a non-cash, net negative impact of $39.7 million or $1.10 per diluted share related to an enacted tax rate increase in the United KingdomCompany increases 2021 full-year earnings guidance to $4.30-$4.50 per diluted share CHICAGO, July 20, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) today reported 2021 second-quarter results. Results for the second quarter and six months ended June 30, 2021 are summarized below:  Three...

 PRESS RELEASE

GATX Corporation Sets Date for 2021 Second Quarter Earnings Release an...

GATX Corporation Sets Date for 2021 Second Quarter Earnings Release and Conference Call CHICAGO, July 06, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) will report results for the 2021 second quarter prior to market open on July 20, 2021. GATX will hold a conference call to review the results later that morning. Investors may listen to the call via telephone or over the internet as follows: Live Teleconference Date:July 20, 2021Time:11 a.m. (Eastern Time)Domestic Dial-In:1-800-367-2403  International Dial-In:1-334-777-6978Live Webcast: To participate by phone, please dial in app...

 PRESS RELEASE

GATX Corporation Publishes Inaugural Sustainability Accounting Standar...

GATX Corporation Publishes Inaugural Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) Report CHICAGO, May 04, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) today announced publication of its first Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) report, which discloses metrics related to relevant environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors for calendar year 2020. Furthermore, the Company announced disclosure of its Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data for calendar year 2019. GATX intends to publish 2020 GHG emissions data in the second half of 2021. “These dis...

 PRESS RELEASE

GATX Corporation to Present at the 2021 Virtual Wells Fargo Industrial...

GATX Corporation to Present at the 2021 Virtual Wells Fargo Industrials Conference CHICAGO, April 30, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) today announced that Thomas A. Ellman, executive vice president and chief financial officer, will present at the 2021 Virtual Wells Fargo Industrials Conference on Wednesday, May 5, 2021. The presentation will include an overview of GATX’s operations. GATX’s presentation will begin at 2:00 PM Eastern Time and will be followed by a question and answer session. To listen to a live webcast of the presentation, please access the appropria...

 PRESS RELEASE

GATX Corporation Appoints Kim Nero as Executive Vice President and Chi...

GATX Corporation Appoints Kim Nero as Executive Vice President and Chief Human Relations Officer CHICAGO, April 28, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) today announced the appointment of Kim Nero as Executive Vice President and Chief Human Relations Officer, effective May 3. In this role, Ms. Nero will oversee GATX’s global human resources organization. She succeeds James (Jim) M. Conniff, who is retiring after a successful 40-year career with GATX. “Kim is a dynamic, strategic, results-oriented leader who brings a wealth of experience in cultural transformation, empl...

 PRESS RELEASE

GATX Corporation Announces Quarterly Dividend

GATX Corporation Announces Quarterly Dividend CHICAGO, April 23, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The board of directors of GATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) today declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per common share, payable June 30, 2021, to shareholders of record on June 15, 2021. This quarterly dividend is unchanged from the prior quarter. COMPANY DESCRIPTIONGATX Corporation (NYSE:GATX) strives to be recognized as the finest railcar leasing company in the world by our customers, our shareholders, our employees and the communities where we operate. As the leading global railcar lessor, GATX has...

Valens Research
  • Valens Research

Valens Credit Weekly Insights - 2021 04 21

Valens Credit Research team highlights GATX, which has a compelling bond offering that we believe the market is currently mispricing, with strong fundamentals, favorable management alignment, and an actionable trade.

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