Still Bullish, But With Reservations And just like that, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow have reclaimed new highs despite ongoing coronavirus concerns, as a buy the dip strategy has paid off. Primarily responsible for new highs in these indexes is Technology (esp. software and semis/semi suppliers) and FAANG stocks. While these areas all remain bullish, we still have some reservations due to the massive disparity in performance between them and the Materials (XLB, XME) and Energy (RYE) Sectors...
Constructive Pullback Coronavirus concerns are hitting stocks due to prospects of lower economic growth. A question we ask ourselves is whether the worst of the declines are behind us and that the pullback is likely to be a buying opportunity, or is this the beginning of a much larger correction? We lean towards the former, and believe this to be a healthy and constructive pullback of the 5-7% variety in the S&P 500 (peak-to-trough is currently -3.7%). We explain our thought process below. •...
Hanging in the balance Last week's worse-than-expected economic data further spooked investors and reignited global growth concerns. Despite the many potential risks that we can point to for this market and the economy, thus far we are not seeing any technical breakdowns, and until we do, our neutral outlook remains appropriate. • Cyclicals not breaking down. Key cyclical/risk-on areas of the market such as small-caps (IWM), banks (KBE), and transports (IYT) are not breaking down. As long as...
Downgrading defensive sectors: Staples, Utilities, and Real Estate We continue to grapple with the possibility that the Christmas Eve low was “the low,†while also considering the potential that the current oversold bounce may be a bear market rally - and that the potential for a retest of the December lows could be around the corner. Short-term market/technical developments and other observations below lead us to believe that a more constructive overall outlook on the broad market is warra...
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