reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Commodity & Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership Much of the recent strength in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been driven by a select few mega-cap growth names, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have not been able to reclaim important $209 and $134 resistance levels, respectively. This bifurcation between mega- and small/micro-caps can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market. However, there continues to be several attr...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors Market dynamics are almost exclusively bearish and our key “lines in the sand” on the major indexes are being violated amid the escalating Russia/Ukraine war. This includes 4257 on the S&P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have been below the important $209 and $134 levels, respectively, since mid-January. As long as prices are below the aforementio...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Bullish Outlook Intact; Mining For Gold As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). Considering these breakouts along with ongoing healthy market dynamics, we continue to believe we have officially entered a new broad-based bull market. Materials Breaking Out To New Highs, Joins Other Cyclicals. Materials (XLB) is the latest Sector to break out to new 2021 highs, providing more ev...
HAM HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD (ADR)
GFI GOLD FIELDS LTD. ADS
AU ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD. ADS
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
EGO ELDORADO GOLD CORP.
IMG. IAMGOLD CORPORATION
PVG. PRETIUM RESOURCES INC.
SEA SEABRIDGE GOLD
NFD/A NORTHFIELD CAPITAL CORP. CL A
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Long-Term Shift To Value Underway We believe the weight of the evidence suggests a mixed, but overall constructive market, and we continue to favor buying pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&P 500. We also explain why we believe value's outperformance is in its early stages. S&P 500. The S&P 500 has pulled back after being extended as it ran into resistance at the megaphone pattern. We believe pullbacks should be treated as buying opportunities and we are constructive as long as the S&P ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Bullish Yet Vigilant In our 6/8/20 ETF Pathfinder we noted a bullish outlook was warranted, but that equities were extended and that we would be buyers on a pullback. Now that markets have pulled back, the question is whether this is just a countertrend move within the ongoing bullish trend, or the beginning of a bigger correction. For now we remain bullish and believe this to be a buyable pullback. Below we highlight key developments we are watching, including what it would take for us to alte...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
The major averages (S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq) are showing signs of stalling out, with all breaking below uptrends that began at the lows of March. While we do not want to get too far ahead of ourselves, this could very well be the beginning of the meaningful pullback that we have been concerned about. Price action today and in the coming week will help offer major clues as to whether this is yet another buying opportunity or a near-term top. We believe this is more likely to be the latter and wo...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Examining Prior Extended Periods Despite our concerns regarding the growing performance disparity between the haves (e.g., Technology, FAANG, mega-caps, growth) and the have nots (e.g., Materials, Energy, small-caps, value), the silver lining continues to be that the latter group is not breaking down on an absolute (price) basis. Due to this fact along with several observations highlighted below, we remain bullish. Continue to buy the dips. • Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Rec...
SHOP SHOPIFY INC.
VEEV VEEVA SYSTEMS INC CLASS A
NOW SERVICENOW INC.
ZTS ZOETIS INC. CLASS A
UPLD UPLAND SOFTWARE INC.
THC TENET HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
TEAM ATLASSIAN CORP. PLC CLASS A
SGRY SURGERY PARTNERS INC.
SEM SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS CORPORATION
QADA QAD CLASS A
PEGA PEGASYSTEMS INC.
MGIC MAGIC SOFTWARE ENTERPRISES LTD.
J JACOBS ENGINEERING GROUP INC.
HSKA HESKA CORPORATION
HCA HCA HEALTHCARE INC
FRPT FRESHPET INC
DG DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION
APPF APPFOLIO INC CLASS A
AMSWA AMERICAN SOFTWARE INC. CL A
ALRM ALARM.COM HOLDINGS INC.
CYH COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC.
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
IBM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
SAP... SAP SE
PETQ PETIQ INC. CLASS A
DOMO DOMO INCORPORATED
A2AHFT MARKET VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF
PLAN ANAPLAN
ALVR ALVARION LTD.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Global indexes at major resistance Despite the S&P 500 having crept into all-time high territory, several signals continue to give us reason for pause as they are not indicative of what we would expect to see in a typical bull market. Below we highlight some of these signals which give us reason for pause, including major global indexes (ACWI and IOO) which find themselves at critical resistance... see charts below. • Reasons for pause: RS is neutral and consolidating for defensive bond prox...
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
IHF ISHARES U.S. HEALTHCARE PROVID
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
CPER UNITED STATES COPPER INDEX FUND
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
A2AHFT MARKET VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF
SIL GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
TAN INVESCO SOLAR ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
IOO ISHARES GLOBAL 100 ETF
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
XLB. ISHARES CORE CANADIAN LONG TER
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Macro Vision: U.S. Equity Strategy
The S&P 500 continues its march higher, however the troops have been unable to keep up with the generals and with this is an ounce of concern. Sending the generals into battle often ends up with no more leaders. Our view of the markets is to deploy a barbell approach of growth and safety. While growth continues to outperform, it does so without the small-caps. Meanwhile utilities and staples continue to march just behind the growth areas of the market, and have been unable to reach new RS highs ...
WEX WEX INC
CMCSA COMCAST CORPORATION CLASS A
STMICROELECTRONICS N.V. ADS
ACN ACCENTURE PLC CLASS A
V VISA INC. CLASS A
PYPL PAYPAL HOLDINGS INC
MCO MOODY'S CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
EQIX EQUINIX INC.
CLGX CORELOGIC INC.
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMT AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION
ADBE ADOBE INC.
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
AZPN ASPEN TECHNOLOGY INC.
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
SBAC SBA COMMUNICATIONS CORP. CLASS A
SPGI S&P GLOBAL INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
FXI ISHARES CHINA LARGE-CAP ETF
A2AHFT MARKET VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
As market participants attempt to digest the Trump/Xi G20 meeting and resulting trade cease-fire, the S&P 500 remains below logical resistance at 2,964. While a breakout would not be surprising, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario. • Cyclicals unable to hit new price highs. Helping lead us to believe the market may not be ready to break out is the fact that several key cyclical areas of the market are either making lower highs or remain below resistance. Until we s...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
XAR SPDR S&P AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE FUND
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
KIE SPDR KBW INSURANCE ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
FEU SPDR DJ STOXX 50 FUND
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
A14MTT ISHARES CURRENCY HEDGED MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWA ISHARES MSCI AUSTRALIA ETF
RSXJ MARKET VECTORS RUSSIA SMALL-CAP ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
Key Points: • The U.S. dollar is breaking its 16-month uptrend and is declining through its 200-day moving average and Gold is breaking to 6-year price highs. RS appears to be staging a reversal at a support level. (ex. GC00, GDX) • A number of Healthcare Sector names are breaking out or staging reversals. (ex. ITGR, CHE, XRAY, OMCL, MOH, WCG, ARWR, INCY, GILD, VRTX, IQV, MEDP, and CTLT)
INCY INCYTE CORP
KMX CARMAX INC.
XRAY DENTSPLY SIRONA INC.
WCG WELLCARE HEALTH PLANS INC.
VRTX VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INCORPORATED
TTWO TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE INC.
PRFT PERFICIENT INC.
OMCL OMNICELL INC.
OKE ONEOK INC.
MOH MOLINA HEALTHCARE INC.
FOXF FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP.
FLO FLOWERS FOODS INC.
EHTH EHEALTH INC.
DLTR DOLLAR TREE INC.
CTLT CATALENT INC
CCOI COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS INC
BOOT BOOT BARN HOLDINGS
BKH BLACK HILLS CORPORATION
ARWR ARROWHEAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC.
AN AUTONATION INC.
ABX. BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
CHE CHEMED CORPORATION
MEDP MEDPACE HOLDINGS INC.
CMO CAPSTEAD MORTGAGE CORPORATION
CUB CUBIC CORPORATION
A0CA8M GENESEE & WYOMING INC. CLASS A
KMI KINDER MORGAN INC CLASS P
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
TYIA JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL PLC
ITGR INTEGER HOLDINGS CORPORATION
BKR BAKER HUGHES COMPANY CLASS A
TGT TARGET CORPORATION
IQV IQVIA HOLDINGS INC
BKNG BOOKING HOLDINGS INC.
XLSR SPDR SSGA U.S. SECTOR ROTATION ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
Key Points: • Gold appears to be developing a potential head-and-shoulders bottom. A break above the $128 level would be very bullish. (ex. GLD and GDX) • A number of restaurants are bullishly inflecting, trending up and to the right. (ex. JACK, DIN, SHAK, and YUM) • REIT's continue to be leadership (ex. PSB, HCP, HR, WELL, ARE, ESS, MAA, AMT, CCI, and SBAC)
RGLD ROYAL GOLD INC
SHAK SHAKE SHACK INC. CLASS A
VG VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP.
GPN GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC.
YUM YUM! BRANDS INC.
XRAY DENTSPLY SIRONA INC.
TISA TOP IMAGE SYSTEMS LTD.
SIGI SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC.
RLI RLI CORP.
PSB PS BUSINESS PARKS INC.
MOH MOLINA HEALTHCARE INC.
MKTX MARKETAXESS HOLDINGS INC.
2M9 MEDIDATA SOLUTIONS INC.
MDCO MEDICINES COMPANY
MAA MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES INC.
JACK JACK IN THE BOX INC.
HR HEALTHCARE REALTY TRUST INCORPORATED
HCP HEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES INC.
WELL WELLTOWER INC.
FLO FLOWERS FOODS INC.
ESS ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST INC.
DLTR DOLLAR TREE INC.
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
DIN DINE BRANDS GLOBAL INC.
COO COOPER COMPANIES INC.
CHDN CHURCHILL DOWNS INCORPORATED
CCOI COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS INC
CBOE CBOE GLOBAL MARKETS INC
CACI CACI INTERNATIONAL INC CLASS A
ARE ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES INC.
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
CCI CROWN CASTLE INTERNATIONAL CORP
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
SBAC SBA COMMUNICATIONS CORP. CLASS A
TTEC TTEC HOLDINGS INC.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
The good outweighs the bad Our checklist of bullish indicators continues to grow as equal-weighted Financials (RYF), global Financials (IXG), global autos (CARZ), and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT) are each decisively breaking topside critical resistance levels. These developments have led us to be incrementally more bullish. At the same time, biotech has succumbed to weakness within Health Care -- a point for the bears as it is one aspect that puts a damper on risk sentiment. Overa...
STT STATE STREET CORPORATION
KMX CARMAX INC.
NCR NCR CORPORATION
UNH UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED
SEIC SEI INVESTMENTS COMPANY
LEA LEAR CORPORATION
LAD LITHIA MOTORS INC. CLASS A
IVZ INVESCO LTD.
GPI GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE INC.
FIS FIDELITY NATIONAL INFORMATION SERVICES INC.
ETN EATON CORP. PLC
CRMT AMERICA'S CAR-MART INC.
BWA BORGWARNER INC.
ARCC ARES CAPITAL CORPORATION
AN AUTONATION INC.
AMP AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC.
AMG AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP INC.
ALV AUTOLIV INC.
AG31 APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT INC. CLASS A
MG/CN MAGNA INTERNATIONAL INC.
BX BLACKSTONE GROUP INC.
FHI FEDERATED HERMES INC. CLASS B
LM LEGG MASON INC.
LPLA LPL FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC.
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
TROW T. ROWE PRICE GROUP
WPC W. P. CAREY INC.
TYIA JOHNSON CONTROLS INTERNATIONAL PLC
JHG JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC
APTV APTIV PLC
CARZ FIRST TRUST NASDAQ GLOBAL AUTO INDEX FUND
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
ADNT ADIENT PLC
IHF ISHARES U.S. HEALTHCARE PROVID
A2AHFT MARKET VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
IXG ISHARES GLOBAL FINANCIALS ETF
STTX STRATEX OIL & GAS HOLDINGS
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
S&P 500 testing YTD lows The S&P 500 remains on shaky ground, recently slicing through 2,600, and now testing YTD lows. We view the YTD lows (~2,530) as an important area of support and some sort of a bounce, or at least a pause, is to be expected. The question is whether this level ultimately holds. Our outlook remains cautious and we put a high probability on a breakdown to new lows given weak longer-term internals and continued leadership of defensive Sectors, while banks and small-caps are ...
WEC WEC ENERGY GROUP INC
SR SPIRE INC.
PEG PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
NI NISOURCE INC
MGEE MGE ENERGY INC.
FNV. FRANCO-NEVADA CORPORATION
EXC EXELON CORPORATION
ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC.
DTE DTE ENERGY COMPANY
D DOMINION ENERGY INC
CPK CHESAPEAKE UTILITIES CORPORATION
CMS CMS ENERGY CORPORATION
BKH BLACK HILLS CORPORATION
ATO ATMOS ENERGY CORPORATION
AEE AMEREN CORPORATION
ABX. BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION
AEM. AGNICO EAGLE MINES LIMITED
UGI UGI CORPORATION
NJR NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
NEW PUXIN ADS (N SHARES)
A2AHFT MARKET VECTORS JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Insights: Technical Appraisal of U. S. Equity Market
Looking Forward: Technical Appraisal and Expectations for the U.S. Equity Market Market capitulations are a resignation of all hope. As volatility spikes and the market experiences wild gyrations, investors sell what they can to try to achieve some sense of stability. Support and resistance levels mean little other than as talking points. Let's face it, if investors want out, they want out. Here are a few guidelines to keep in mind as we work through the market's current unease. 1. Selling c...
- Thierry Huteau
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