reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Int'l Insights: Bullish Stocks
Remain Overweight South Korea and Taiwan We remain bullish on EM with the 7-month uptrends intact on the MSCI Emerging Markets index (local currency) and EEM-US (USD). The latest pullback in November found support precisely at the uptrend, which is something we have been discussing and expecting for months. Supports to buy on EEM-US are at the uptrend (currently $53.60) and also the $51.80-$52.35 horizontal support level. The recent 2.5-month uptrend violation on the U.S. dollar (DXY) contin...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Expecting a Rally Through Early-2026 We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059. Additionally, we discussed since our 10/14/25 Compass how our near-term bullish outlook remains intact as long as the SPX holds above 6550-6569, which coincided with the 3-month upt...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking Out to All-Time Highs We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place as long as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 5700-5785. Short-term support on SP...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Rally Continues as USD & 10-Year Treasury Yield Break We continue to believe the market remains in bear market rally mode, though the Russell 2000 (IWM) has already achieved our price target at its 200-day MA, while the S&P 500 is only 2% away from hitting its 200-day MA. We have said that this is still a bear market as long as the S&P 500 and IWM are below their 200-day MAs, but, as we discussed in our Oct. 31 ETF Pathfinder, we continue to see signs that suggest reversals could be coming. Ma...
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
EWI BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
VGK VANGUARD MSCI EUROPEAN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500 Testing Support Amid Uncertainties Short-term support levels have been violated on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 due to uncertainties surrounding rising COVID-19 cases/potential stay-at-home orders, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding new stimulus and the election outcome. While we remain constructive over the intermediate-term, short-term breakdowns have shifted our near-term outlook to a more neutral stance. · Key S&P 500 Levels. We believe caution is warranted fo...
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
EWJ ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
XHS SPDR S&P HEALTH CARE SERVICES FUND
XSD SPDR S&P SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Prior Concerns Becoming Tailwinds Several concerns that we have previously noted as being risks to our bullish outlook are now becoming tailwinds. This includes interest rates which are now moving higher and price and RS improvements for cyclical value Sectors. As a result we remain bullish and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. · 10-Year Treasury Yield Reversing Higher. Earlier this week the 10-year Treasury yield made a bullish reversal, and we now see the short...
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
EFNL ISHARES MSCI FINLAND CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
XRT SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
EWGS ISHARES MSCI GERMANY SMALL-CAP
COPX GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives The current market scenario is not what we would consider “perfect†for a bull market, but it certainly has most of the necessary ingredients. Therefore, we continue to believe we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Upgrading Industrials, Downgrading Defensives. Cyclical Sectors continue to show price and RS improvement while Defensive Sectors deteriorate, a favorable backdrop for a bull market. We are upgrading Industrials (X...
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
XTN SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
EWJ ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
PGAL GLOBAL X FTSE PORTUGAL 20 ETF
RHS INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER STAPLES ETF
RCD INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
RGI INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT INDUSTRIALS ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
COPX GLOBAL X COPPER MINERS ETF
EUSC WDMTR ERP HDG EQ
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Bullish Developments Continue; Downgrading Communications Bullish developments continue to flood the market, leading us to believe we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. • Bullish Arguments Flooding the Market. Major global and US indexes (SPY, RSP, QQQ, EEM, EFA, EUFN, ACWI, Europe, Japan, etc.) are making bullish inflections. Serial laggards such as retail (XRT) and biotech (IBB, XBI) appear to be bottoming. Cyclical Sectors are breaking topside resistance (e.g., XLK, XLF,...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IBB ISHARES NASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EWO ISHARES MSCI AUSTRIA CAPPED ET
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
XTN SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF
XME SPDR S&P METALS & MINING ETF
XBI SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
PGAL GLOBAL X FTSE PORTUGAL 20 ETF
XPH SPDR S&P PHARMACEUTICALS ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
XSD SPDR S&P SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
DXGE WISDOMTREE GERMANY HEDGED EQUITY FUND
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Industrials; Overweight Small-Caps The S&P 500 has continued to trickle higher along with positive expectations surrounding trade and Fed policy. 2,817 is the current resistance level we are watching on the S&P 500. Considering the market's melt-up, we believe potential exists for a “sell the news†event once a deal on trade is announced. At the same time, we continue to believe the market is going through a bottoming process and that a “buy the dip†mentality remains warrante...
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
ECH. ISHARES MSCI CHILE CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
IAU ISHARES COMEX GOLD TRUST
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
XME SPDR S&P METALS & MINING ETF
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
XAR SPDR S&P AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE FUND
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
KBE SPDR KBW BANK ETF
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
IJR ISHARES S&P SMALL-CAP ETF
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
UUP INVESCO DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND
TUR ISHARES MSCI TURKEY ETF
VUG VANGUARD GROWTH ETF
SIL GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
VTV VANGUARD VALUE ETF
HEDJ WSDMTR EURP HDGD
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Energy and Small-caps • Energy and small-caps breaking out. We are upgrading both to overweight. Continued strength in oil prices has led the XLE to breakout topside resistance... see below and page 6. Also breaking out to new highs is the Russell 2000 small-cap index (IWM)... see below and page 3. • Big picture trends: Interest rates, the USD, and commodities. The 10-year Treasury yield has continued to climb, moving as high as 3.115% last week to levels not seen since 2011. Wit...
SLV ISHARES SILVER TRUST
GLD SPDR GOLD TRUST
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWC ISHARES MSCI CANADA ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
ECH. ISHARES MSCI CHILE CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
IAU ISHARES COMEX GOLD TRUST
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
DBO POWERSHARES DB OIL FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
SCZ ISHARES MSCI EAFE SMALL-CAP ET
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
ENOR ISHARES MSCI NORWAY CAPPED ETF
EWI POWERSHARES DB COMMODITY INDEX FUND
EWU POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND
DBC SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
UUP ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
XOP BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
U.S. Dollar, broad commodities, and interest rates on the rise • Big picture trends: The USD, commodities, and interest rates. The USD (UUP) has broken topside its downtrend - a bullish development... see below. In a break from the traditional inverse relationship between the dollar and commodities (DBC), the latter remains on bullish footing, and oil prices (DBO, USO, BNO) continue to lead the advance - remain overweight. Also on the rise is the 10-year Treasury yield, which is testing 3.00%...
USO UNITED STATES OIL FUND LP
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWO ISHARES MSCI AUSTRIA CAPPED ET
ECH ISHARES MSCI CHILE CAPPED ETF
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
FDN FIRST TRUST DOW JONES INTERNET INDEX FUND
A14Y9A FIRST TRUST NASDAQ CEA CYBERSECURITY ETF
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
EWM ISHARES MSCI MALAYSIA ETF
PPA POWERSHARES ETF TRUST AEROSPACE & DEFENSE PORTFOLIO
DBO POWERSHARES DB OIL FUND
XAR SPDR S&P AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
SCZ ISHARES MSCI EAFE SMALL-CAP ET
IHF ISHARES U.S. HEALTHCARE PROVID
EPU ISHARES MSCI ALL PERU CAPPED E
ENOR ISHARES MSCI NORWAY CAPPED ETF
EWI BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EWU POWERSHARES DB COMMODITY INDEX FUND
DBC POWERSHARES DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH FUND
UUP SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Market remains indecisive • Outlook and breadth indicators are mixed: Last week's retest of the S&P 500's 200-day moving average has held, a critical support level, but a long-term breadth indicator has shown deterioration. That is, during the recent retest, a higher percentage of S&P 500 constituents closed below their respective 200-day moving average... see below. Other indicators such as the Discretionary/Staples ratio, Advance-Decline lines, and the percentage of stocks above their 50-da...
XLB MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWZ ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWO ISHARES MSCI AUSTRIA CAPPED ET
ECH ISHARES MSCI CHILE CAPPED ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
ITA ISHARES U.S. AEROSPACE & DEFENSE ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
EZA ISHARES MSCI SOUTH AFRICA ETF
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE ETF
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
XTN SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
CUT GUGGENHEIM MSCI GLOBAL TIMBER
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
EWM ISHARES MSCI MALAYSIA ETF
PPA POWERSHARES ETF TRUST AEROSPACE & DEFENSE PORTFOLIO
DBO POWERSHARES DB OIL FUND
XAR SPDR S&P AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE FUND
BNO US BRENT OIL FUND LP
EGPT MARKET VECTORS EGYPT INDEX
FBT FIRST TRUST NYSE ARCA BIOTECHNOLOGY INDEX FUND
ARGT GLOBAL X FTSE ARGENTINA 20 ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Volatility prevails • Long-term bullish outlook remains. In our last ETF Pathfinder, we voiced our expectation for a continued period of heightened volatility marked by backing and filling. We also noted important levels on the S&P 500 that we are watching - the recent high of ~2,873 as the top-end of the range, and the recent low of ~2,532 as the bottom-end. Nothing has changed regarding these expectations, and we expect markets will continue to consolidate within the aforementioned range. ...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWZ ISHARES MSCI BRAZIL CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWQ ISHARES MSCI FRANCE ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
SLX. MARKET VECTORS STEEL INDEX FUND
THD. ISHARES MSCI THAILAND CAPPED E
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
EWK ISHARES MSCI BELGIUM CAPPED ET
IYT ISHARES TRANSPORTATION AVERAGE ETF
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
PICK ISHARES MSCI GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRODUCERS ETF
XTN SPDR S&P TRANSPORTATION ETF
XME SPDR S&P METALS & MINING ETF
XBI SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
SMH MARKET VECTORS SMEICONDOUCTOR ETF
REMX. MARKET VECTORS RARE EARTH/STRATEGIC METALS ETF
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