reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis
Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI) as of our October 17, 2024 Int'l Compass. This is the point where it became clear that the 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that we called for in late-July (7/25/24 Int'l Compass) was over, and that a new uptrend was underway. We have also been discussing since mid-October how we would use any pre-election pullback in the MSCI ACWI or the S&P 500 (the U.S. remains our only country overweight) as an opportunity to add exposure, and th...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
RGLD ROYAL GOLD INC
URI UNITED RENTALS INC.
DOV DOVER CORPORATION
MTH MERITAGE HOMES CORPORATION
MRK MERCK & CO. INC.
FORM FORMFACTOR INC.
CPF CENTRAL PACIFIC FINANCIAL CORP.
CHDN CHURCHILL DOWNS INCORPORATED
AR ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
UVSP UNIVEST FINANCIAL CORPORATION
VIRT VIRTU FINANCIAL INC. CLASS A
NOC NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORPORATION
CECE CECO ENVIRONMENTAL CORP.
CMG CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC.
PI IMPINJ INC.
MRUS MERUS B V
ADES ADVANCED EMISSIONS SOLUTIONS
HCC WARRIOR MET COAL INC.
FCNCA FIRST CITIZENS BANCSHARES INC. CLASS A
KDP KEURIG DR PEPPER INC.
MMMB MAMAMANCINI'S HOLDINGS INC
FXI ISHARES CHINA LARGE-CAP ETF
STRA STRATEGIC EDUCATION INC.
DELL DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC CLASS C
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
AIMD.P AIM4 VENTURES
ALXO ALX ONCOLOGY HOLDINGS
CSU CAPITAL SENIOR LIVING
LRN STRIDE INC
VRT VERTIV HOLDINGS CO (A)
AMR ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES INC
RSVR RESERVOIR MEDIA
CADL INC.
SG CANDEL THERAPEUTICS INC
EEMA SWEETGREEN INC
CASH ONTO INNOVATION INC.
FEBO ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ASIA INDEX
METC HORIZONS HIGH INTEREST SAVINGS ETF
PROP FENBO HOLDINGS LIMITED
AESI RAMACO RESOURCES INC.
PRAIRIE OPERATING CO.
ATLAS ENERGY SOLUTIONS INC CL A
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? The S&P 500, Russell 2000 (IWM), and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) continue to have trouble breaking above their respective 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280. With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout. We continue to recomm...
RRJ RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD.
TLYS TILLYS
TJX TJX COMPANIES INC
RGA REINSURANCE GROUP OF AMERICA INCORPORATED
EVEREST RE GROUP LTD.
GPS GAP INC.
ESGR ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED
BKE BUCKLE INC.
ANF ABERCROMBIE & FITCH CO. CLASS A
AEO AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS INC.
ACGL ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD.
ROST ROSINTER RESTAURANTS HOLDING ORD SHS
DXYN DIXIE GROUP
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST
SERIES 1
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Testing YTD Lows; 2.5-Yr Commodity Uptrend Breaking In our previous ETF Pathfinder (Sept. 6) we discussed how key supports were being tested at 3900 on the S&P 500, $293-294 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and that breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows -- or worse. Those support levels have broken, and we are now getting a test of the YTD lows. With so many indexes and key Sectors (e.g., Financials, Industrials, Technology) curren...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Headwinds Persist In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher. We continue to see the market as being in pullback mode; the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pul...
RUN SUNRUN INC.
JJSF J & J SNACK FOODS CORP.
HSY HERSHEY COMPANY
CASY CASEY'S GENERAL STORES INC.
TA.. TRANSALTA CORPORATION
ENPH ENPHASE ENERGY INC.
FSLR FIRST SOLAR INC.
SPWR SUNPOWER CORPORATION
TR TOOTSIE ROLL INDUSTRIES INC.
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
JBSS JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON INC.
TWNK HOSTESS BRANDS INC. CLASS A
SOL RENESOLA ADS
CAAP CORPORACION AMERICA AIRPORTS
QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST
MAXN SERIES 1
ARKO MAXEON SOLAR TECHNOLOGIES
ARKO CORP (A)
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Fed Set to Hike 50 bps As Indexes Test Support We have warned over the past month that a test of the lows, and possibly a break to new lows, is increasingly likely on the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). This has played-out as we recently made marginal new lows amid additional indiscriminate selling on Tuesday and Friday last week. There is potential for an oversold bounce, but we will need to see back-to-back 80%+ upside volume days or one 90%+ upside volume day on the NYSE i...
PSX PHILLIPS 66
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
MUSA MURPHY USA INC.
CVI CVR ENERGY INC.
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
CNO CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
CLMT CALUMET SPECIALTY PRODUCTS PARTNERS L.P.
EEM ELECTRICITE ET EAUX DE MADAGASCAR
MPC. MADISON PACIFIC PROPERTIES INC. CL B
VLO VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
ACWI ISHARES MSCI ACWI ETF
ACWX ISHARES MSCI ACWI EX US ETF
IMO IMMORENTE INVEST SA
OVV OVINTIV INC
DINO HOLLYFRONTIER CORP
OOOO OOOOO ENTERTAINMENT COMMERCE LTD.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Commodity & Defensive Sectors Remain Leadership Much of the recent strength in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has been driven by a select few mega-cap growth names, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have not been able to reclaim important $209 and $134 resistance levels, respectively. This bifurcation between mega- and small/micro-caps can continue, but it is not the type of breadth that supports a sustainable new bull market. However, there continues to be several attr...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Overweight Defensives & Commodity Sectors Market dynamics are almost exclusively bearish and our key “lines in the sand” on the major indexes are being violated amid the escalating Russia/Ukraine war. This includes 4257 on the S&P 500, $334 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and 33,250 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, while the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Russel Micro Caps (IWC) have been below the important $209 and $134 levels, respectively, since mid-January. As long as prices are below the aforementio...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Important "lines in the sand" have broken since our last ETF Pathfinder (Jan. 18), including $208 on the Russell 2000 index (IWM) and $134 on the Russell Micro Cap index (IWC); we are bearish on these indexes as long as they remain below their previous support levels. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) display uptrend violations and some sideways consolidation is likely; as long as 4257 and $334 supports hold, respectively, we cannot get too bearish. Breaks below these levels would sign...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Index Supports Breaking; Upgrading Utilities Indexes continue to violate our key "lines in the sand" as the Russell 2000 (IWM) broke below $208, the S&P 500 broke below 4495, and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW) broke below $109. This type of damage paints a bearish picture at the index level, and will take some time to repair. Now that key supports have been violated, we are monitoring for oversold conditions that could mark a bottom. It is possible that yesterday's reversal could mark "th...
WEC WEC ENERGY GROUP INC
PPL PPL CORPORATION
PEG PUBLIC SERVICE ENTERPRISE GROUP INC
LNT ALLIANT ENERGY CORP
ED CONSOLIDATED EDISON INC.
DUK DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION
D DOMINION ENERGY INC
CMS CMS ENERGY CORPORATION
AVA AVISTA CORPORATION
FTS. FORTIS INC.
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
NI NIHAO MINERAL RESOURCES INT'L
EXC EXCEET GROUP SE
PCG PG&E CORPORATION
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Market Sending Mixed Signals; Stick With Value The market continues to send a mix of risk-on and risk-off signals, though most of the risk-on signals are centered around value Sectors such as Energy, Financials, Manufacturing/Industrials, and Materials (currently our favorite areas). Meanwhile, some of our big picture "lines in the sand" are being violated, including the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) which is breaking below $134 as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) tests critical support at $207.50...
OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION
SLB.N SCHLUMBERGER NV
IMO. IMPERIAL OIL LIMITED
SU. SUNCOR ENERGY INC.
PXD PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES COMPANY
MRO MARATHON OIL CORPORATION
HES HESS CORPORATION
HAL HALLIBURTON COMPANY
FANG DIAMONDBACK ENERGY INC.
EOG EOG RESOURCES INC.
DVN DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION
CVE CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
COG CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION
CNO CNO FINANCIAL GROUP INC.
CLR CONTINENTAL RESOURCES INC.
AR ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
SPX SPIRAX-SARCO ENGINEERING PLC
MUR MURPHY OIL CORPORATION
CLB CORE LABORATORIES NV
WFT.. WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PLC
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
BKR BAKER HUGHES COMPANY CLASS A
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
KRE. SPDR KBW REGIONAL BANKING ETF
REEMF RARE ELEMENT RESOURCES
QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST
NOV SERIES 1
APA NOV INC.
OVV APA CORPORATION
IWC OVINTIV INC
QQEW ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
FIRST TRUST NASDAQ-100 EQUAL WEIGHTED INDEX FUND
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Risk-Off Signals Abating In our last Compass (Dec. 22), we pointed out that despite conflicting signals (some neutral or healthy signals but some risk-off signals as well), our bottom line is that we could not be bearish as long as the Russell 2000 index (IWM) is above $208, the Russell Micro Caps index (IWC) is above $134-$135, and the S&P 500 is above 4495. These support levels have held strong, and we are now seeing the aforementioned risk-off signals starting to abate. This is an encouragin...
MOS MOSAIC COMPANY
JLL JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORATED
FCX FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC.
CF CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC.
APTS PREFERRED APARTMENT COMMUNITIES INC.
AMT AMERICAN TOWER CORPORATION
JOE ST. JOE COMPANY
BAM.A BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. CLASS A
TRO. TARANIS RESOURCES INC.
TECK.B TECK RESOURCES LIMITED CLASS B
MMI MARCUS & MILLICHAP INC.
HHC HOWARD HUGHES CORPORATION
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
SBAC SBA COMMUNICATIONS CORP. CLASS A
INVH INVITATION HOMES INC.
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
ICL ICL GROUP LTD.
IPI INTREPID POTASH
JETS US GBL JETS ETF
IWC ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
UAN ARCADIAN PARTNERS LP
XLY AUXLY CANNABIS GROUP INC
CTO CTO REALTY GROWTH INC
CCI CALAMOS GLOBAL CONVERTIBLE & DYNAMIC INCOME TRUST
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Bullish Outlook Intact; Mining For Gold As highlighted in last week's U.S. Macro Vision, our outlook is now bullish as we saw the breakouts we needed in the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Industrials (XLI). Considering these breakouts along with ongoing healthy market dynamics, we continue to believe we have officially entered a new broad-based bull market. Materials Breaking Out To New Highs, Joins Other Cyclicals. Materials (XLB) is the latest Sector to break out to new 2021 highs, providing more ev...
HAM HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD (ADR)
GFI GOLD FIELDS LTD. ADS
AU ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI LTD. ADS
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
EGO ELDORADO GOLD CORP.
IMG. IAMGOLD CORPORATION
PVG. PRETIUM RESOURCES INC.
SEA SEABRIDGE GOLD
NFD/A NORTHFIELD CAPITAL CORP. CL A
GDX VANECK VECTORS GOLD MINERS ETF
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Index and Sector Breakdowns Remain Absent Weak market dynamics continue to be counterbalanced by the fact that there is an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weakest Sectors such as Energy (XLE, XOP, RYE) and Transportation (IYT, XTN, JETS) are holding above key supports. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall. Breakdowns Remain Absent. There continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level, ...
WM WASTE MANAGEMENT INC.
ROL ROLLINS INC.
IT GARTNER INC.
CTSH COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORPORATION CLASS A
LBRDA LIBERTY BROADBAND CORP. CLASS A
RSG REPUBLIC SERVICES INC.
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
WCN WASTE CONNECTIONS INC.
XOP SPDR S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION ETF
JETS US GBL JETS ETF
IWC ISHARES MICRO-CAP ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Long-Term Shift To Value Underway We believe the weight of the evidence suggests a mixed, but overall constructive market, and we continue to favor buying pullbacks to the 4000-4040 range on the S&P 500. We also explain why we believe value's outperformance is in its early stages. S&P 500. The S&P 500 has pulled back after being extended as it ran into resistance at the megaphone pattern. We believe pullbacks should be treated as buying opportunities and we are constructive as long as the S&P ...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Sell In May And Go Away? The weight of the evidence remains positive and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks. We are entering a seasonally weaker period for the S&P 500 ("sell in May and go away") which could lead to some softness, however that alone is no reason to be bearish and we continue to see pullbacks as buying opportunities. S&P 500. The S&P 500 remains bullish and is in an uptrend, though continues to be extended in the short-term as it hovers near potential resista...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Int'l Insights: Bullish Stocks
Overweight EM vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues The MSCI EM index (local currency) remains bullish from a price perspective as it breaks above 2-year resistance to new all-time highs; as long as price is above base support near 65,700, we are bullish from a price perspective. Additionally, the MSCI EM vs. EAFE ratio remains in an uptrend -- remain overweight EM relative to EAFE. We continue to attribute much of EM's outperformance to the downtrend in the US dollar (DXY). As long as weaknes...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Int'l Macro Vision: Sector Synopsis
Int'l Equity Strategy In our October 1 Int'l Compass we highlighted our belief that the lows were in place for this recent correction and that, combined with mostly healthy market dynamics, a bullish outlook is appropriate if the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above $77 support and, if the MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $42.30 support. These indexes and market dynamics have only improved since October 1. As a result, our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Corrective Phase Continues As US Dollar Rises; Japan Showing Strength In our most recent Int'l Compass (9/11/20) we highlighted our belief that global equities (MSCI ACWI) were going through a corrective phase -- this remains true today. Additionally, we view the break above 94 in the US dollar (DXY) as a concerning development for global equities, and if $77 fails to hold on ACWI-US, the next stop is likely to be $75 and the 200-day MA. · US Dollar (DXY); Broad Global Indexes. Short-t...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Small-Caps, EM RS, Commodities Bullishly Inflecting We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Not only is there an absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, but several are now breaking out above resistance. Additionally, EM RS is bullishly inflecting, commodities are bottoming, and high yield spreads are narrowing. · Select Indexes & Sectors Breaking Out. The S&P 500 is testing 3238 resistance, whil...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
DJP BARCLAYS IPATH DJ UBS COMMODITY TR ETN
XHE SPDR S&P HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT ETF
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
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