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Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director
A director at Novo Nordisk AS bought 2,350 shares at 349.044DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 61/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Upgrade to HOLD (PT DKK300, 8pgs)
With the orfo’ data being on the lower side of expectations, we upgrade to Hold as the narrative is likely to be dominated by the potential upside for Novo. However, we remain convinced that: 1) The obesity market is nowhere near as big as the market believes, 2) Ozempic no’s are far too high & 3) Margin forecasts need to fall. Cons’ Ozempic forecasts will take time to fall & we will likely need the IRA price in November to force consensus lower. Therefore, we see limited S-T downside to our DKK...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Oversize Downgrade - PT Cut to DKK300 (SELL, TP DKK300 [350], 8...
Whilst our downgrade to Sell [here] was predicated on reduced Ozempic sales & significantly below cons. forecasts, the magnitude of the ’25 profit warning has led to a material reset of our forecasts & we are now >30% below cons. EBIT in 2029. We expect the debate to now focus on valuation given we model just 5% 25-30 CAGR sales growth & sema accounts for 60% of 2030 EBIT. Worryingly, our EPS declines in 2027 having cut our sales forecasts by 4-9% & EBIT forecasts by 6%-13%. We are now 27% below...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Mounjaro Efficacy Slowing GLP-1 Growth (SELL, TP DKK350, 11pgs)
With US GLP-1 volume growth in diabetes stalling to just 5%, we examine the evidence that Mounjaro’s high efficacy has resulted in a surge of patients getting to HbA1c goal & discontinuing treatment. We analyse the literature & clinical data that shows that GLP-1 market growth could slow dramatically for years to come given Mounjaro is now half the US GLP-1 volume in diabetics. We expect Mounjaro’s NBRx share to be >70% by end 2026, likely resulting in further downgrades to Ozempic consensus. Ba...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Ozempic Outlook Worsening (SELL, TP DKK350, 26pgs)
US Ozempic scrips have continued to deteriorate, resulting in further downgrades to our estimates. We are 9% below US Ozempic cons. in 2025, 24% below in 2026 & 56% below by 2030. Were consensus to fall to our forecasts, we show this would reduce EPS by 4% this year and 15% from 2027 (assuming minimal cost savings). NRx is now declining, yet cons. assumes 3% H225 sales growth despite an expected >MSD price cut. The mid-point of guidance is at risk in our view given the deterioration in Ozempic m...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Negative Mix A Major Concern (SELL, TP DKK350, 15pgs)
We have rebuilt our Wegovy & Ozempic models for volume, price & mix to account for the divergent dynamics by channel. We show that 1) Ozempic volume forecasts remain too high and NRx has now turned negative, 2) Mix is set to worsen dramatically for Ozempic such that 2027 group EPS growth is 0% on our numbers, 3) The Wegovy inflection implied in our forecasts is likely best case scenario w.r.t compounding & CVS, yet we are at the low end of guidance. We are modestly below cons. sales in 2025&26 w...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
MFN Drug Pricing - Impact and Implementation (Thematic, 5pgs)
Ahead of today’s signing of an Executive Order to introduce a Most Favoured Nation approach to drug pricing in the US, we show that net pricing in the EU is c.50% lower than in the US & which companies have most to lose from MFN. We also show that, in reality,
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK950.00) - Dapiglutide likely next catalyst
Q1 revenue missed expectations on lower reimbursement revenue, while operating profit was a beat, as opex was below our forecast and consensus. The 2025 guidance was maintained for opex of DKK2,000m–2,500m. We believe the next potential share-price catalyst is the top-line results from the phase Ib dapiglutide trial in Q2e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK950 (1,000).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Accelerated Wegovy roll-out ahead
Q1 LCY figures beat our forecasts, while the 2025 guidance was cut to 13–21% LCY sales growth YOY and 16–24% LCY operating profit growth YOY due to weaker GLP-1 sales. We have lowered our rebate for US Ozempic but maintain our 52% Wegovy rebate (in line with the Q1 rebate when adjusting for de-stocking). We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Underlying soft GLP-1 sales
We forecast a soft Q1, with 17.3% LCY sales growth and 13.8% LCY operating profit growth due to subdued prescriptions. While we estimate Ozempic sales c0.5% below consensus, we are c1.2% above for Wegovy, as we include DKK1bn in sales related to Wegovy US inventories. We see likely relief from potential unchanged 2025 LCY guidance, supported by improved Wegovy supply and fading pressure from compounders. We reiterate our BUY and DKK900 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Focus on pipeline progression
We expect an uneventful Q1 report, with investor focus on top-line results from the dapiglutide phase Ib obesity trial (due in Q2), which could help provide clarity on the positioning of the molecule in obesity and inflammation. For petrelintide, we have reduced our peak sales forecast to cUSD10.0bn (cUSD10.8bn) on increased competition from GUBamy. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,150).
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Worrying Times (SELL, TP DKK350 [460], 13pgs)
Following the orfo’ P3 data, latest Wegovy scrips & rapidly faltering Ozempic growth, we conduct a wholesale review of our obesity market model, Wegovy & Ozempic scrip models & our Novo financial model. The outcome of this analysis is that we downgrade our 2030 sales by 20% and EPS by 24%. We now assume Novo only achieve a 25% obesity market share by 2030. We are 19% below consensus sales & 23% below EPS in 2030. We also provide a detailed hypothesis as to why US obesity demand growth is so lack...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Broad Tariffs are Highly Unlikely (7pgs)
Following a number of recent events, we discuss in this note what we think is the most likely outcome for the Pharma industry. We show that broad based tariffs on drugs are highly unlikely, that even if it were to happen, the impact of a 20% tariff is
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1
We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Transfer Pricing Could Negate Impact (6pgs)
We show that Big Pharma would not have to shift a single element of supply chain to the US and can mitigate most, if not all, of a 20% tariff on drugs, just by changing their transfer pricing strategy. In a scenario where the US corporation tax rate falls to 15% but tariffs are 20%, we show that Big Pharma profits would be unchanged, while the US government tax take would more than double. The losers would be low tax jurisdictions like Ireland, but they would get to keep their manufacturing base...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo Nordisk - Cut to Sell - The Wood for The Trees (TP DKK 460)
Whilst the Wegovy scrips are scrutinised on literally a daily basis, US Ozempic softness seems to have been ignored despite Ozempic being 2x bigger than Wegovy in terms of global sales. New analysis makes us more concerned about Ozempic 2025 sales, than Wegovy. We are now 8% below the mid-point of 2025 guidance on sales & EBIT. We are 40% below consensus by 2030 on Ozempic sales, which could translate to a 16% cut to cons. group EBIT in 2030. We cut our group sales forecasts by 6-10% and EBIT by...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Deal delivery
We are positive on the partnership with Roche for petrelintide and view the financial terms as favourable for Zealand Pharma. While we had included Roche as the partner for petrelintide in our base case, the deal terms are better than we assumed. Thus, we have updated our valuation for petrelintide to DKK731 NPV/share. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,150 (1,010), based on our SOTP NPV.
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma - 5 Reasons for Further Re-rating (Thematic, 42pgs)
Given the macro backdrop & our evidence in this note that Pharma can sustain faster than expected growth for the next decade, we believe investors should add to their Pharma positions. 2025 is the biggest year for pipeline readouts in recent history and we expect this to catalyse a re-rating. We show that 1) Pipelines are very robust, 2) The market underestimates the size of the “monster” blockbusters that account for 14% of all drugs, 3) 15% of 2030 sales are “generic resistant” due to the moda...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Poised for big news
Q4 revenue was DKK9.1m, driven by the Zegalogue licence and development agreement with Novo Nordisk, and EBIT was DKK-399.3m (we forecast DKK-370.1m, consensus DKK-367.6m). The 2025 opex guidance was for DKK2,000m–2,500m, reflecting pipeline progression investments. We expect strong pipeline news flow in H1, including dapiglutide headline results and potentially a petrelintide partnership. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,010 target price.
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Cagri Data Makes Sense (BUY, TP DKK880, 11pgs)
We have conducted a deep-dive on the available literature & the CagriSema data and show that the inverse dose response is exactly what we would expect to happen and is what was seen in previous Novo studies. In fact, if we were to see the same cut of the data in REDEFINE4, we would fully expect tirzepatide to show the same thing. There is sufficient data (both clinical & in animal models) that shows that there is nothing untoward in the CagriSema data. Crucially, as we learn more about the biolo...
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