reports
Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director
A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 6,311,250 shares at 860.020DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Small guidance raise
Q1 LCY figures beat consensus due to US rebate adjustments related to 2023 adding c5%-points to LCY growth and low SG&A cost boosting EBIT growth in Q1. Wegovy sales were below consensus but above our forecast, and we have therefore adjusted our rebate assumptions for 2024. The 2024 guidance was raised to LCY sales growth of 19–27% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–30% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Company consensus added
We are slightly below consensus on Q1e LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 21.4%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 19.5%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the Ozempic US prescription trend will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Ozempic to drive raised guidance
We are slightly below consensus on Q1 LCY sales growth (we forecast 19.4%, consensus 20.1%) and LCY operating profit growth (we forecast 16.8%, consensus 17.3%), due to lower expected Wegovy sales. However, we believe the trend in Ozempic US prescriptions will prompt management to raise the 2024 guidance to LCY sales growth of 20–28% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 23–31% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Wegovy Stockpiling Almost $5bn (BUY, TP DKK1100, 5 pgs)
Our latest analysis shows that Novo could drive material consensus upgrades by starting to release a potential ~$5bn Wegovy stockpile. With Novo restricting Wegovy supply between Nov-21 & Dec-22, and then from May-23 onwards, they have built up a substantial stockpile of product, in our view. Our analysis of their inventory shows there is likely as much as $5bn of finished or close-to-finished Wegovy product at current US net prices. Our analysis of the supply chain and distribution strategy exp...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - 8 Reasons It’s Going to DKK1100 (BUY, TP DKK1100 [850], 18 pgs)
Novo are just too good to bet against. We now increase our 2030 obesity franchise sales to $50bn and most importantly show that sema’ is only 27% of group sales in 2031. Therefore, if sema’ sales halve by 2034, it’s only a ~5% p.a. headwind to group sales 2032-34. Greater visibility on the post-sema outlook is a strong reason for the Novo multiple to be retained into 2025. We see 8 reasons why Novo will hit DKK1100 in the next year, driven by EPS upgrades, increased supply & P3 readouts. We see ...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Raising the bar with amycretin
At its CMD, the company maintained its strategic aspirations for 2025. It also expects increasing operating profit margins in the coming years. A key focus was the phase I trial results for amycretin in obesity, showing 13.1% weight loss (no signs of plateau). While not confirmed, we still expect it to go directly to phase III development. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,100 (1,000) on higher pipeline valuation.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Catalent: game changer
We believe the move by Novo Holding to acquire Catalent and re-sell the three fill-finish facilities to Novo Nordisk is inspired, and underpins the strength of having the foundation as a major shareholder. With the acquisition, the obesity opportunity moves from supply to demand-driven, while at the same time making scale a significant competitive advantage. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to DKK1,000 (800).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK800.00) - Solid wide guidance
The wide 2024 guidance for local currency (LCY) growth of 18–26% for sales and 21–29% for operating profit reflects the uncertainty over supply and demand for Ozempic and Wegovy. Yet the sharp capex increase highlights confidence in the long-term growth outlook. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to DKK800 (750) on a solid Q4 result and outlook.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Company consensus added
We forecast Q4 LCY sales growth of 36.4% YOY (consensus 37.0%) and LCY operating profit growth of 61.7% (consensus 58.5%). For Q4 Ozempic and Wegovy sales, we are well below consensus, with our calculations indicating consensus has included inventory build-up well above our forecasts. We expect 2024 guidance for 18–24% LCY sales growth and 22–28% LCY operating profit growth. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Likely below 2023 mid-point targe...
Based on US scripts, we believe LCY sales growth slowed in Q4 and forecast 2023 below the guidance mid-point of 33.9% YOY. Benefiting from product mix, we estimate 2023 LCY operating profit growth at the guidance mid-point. We expect 2024 guidance for 18–24% LCY sales growth and 22–28% LCY operating profit growth. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma - 2024 Year Ahead (28 pgs)
For EU Pharma, 2024 is likely to be characterised by EPS revisions, a handful of new launches & sluggish EPS growth for a number of names. The relative lack of pipeline catalysts makes forecasting sales and EPS much more important than for 2023. We identify 4 key issues to watch for: 1) Medicaid AMP cap removal, 2) Higher tax costs, 3) Higher debt costs & 4) a handful of very specific company issues that could make a material difference to performance (Novo: Wegovy supply, GSK: litigation, SAN: ...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Higher US Wegovy rebate for 2024e
Data from the North Carolina Health Plan indicates a c9%-point higher US Wegovy rebate YOY for 2024. Thus, we have raised our 2024e US Wegovy rebate assumption from 50% to 53.6% and forecast global Wegovy sales of DKK57,955m (down c7% on unchanged prescription assumptions). We expect continued strong Ozempic momentum for 2024 and reported sales growth of c26% YOY. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Novo - Wegovy – 3 More Sources of Upside (BUY, TP DKK850 [800], 15 pgs...
Following the SELECT readout, we are increasingly asked by investors what is next for the Novo investment thesis. We now identify 3 sources of upside to Wegovy consensus forecasts & increase our peak sales to $28bn. We show that, 1) Medicaid is worth $6bn in peak sales & is largely ignored, 2) The lack of Medicare access is likely to have the perverse positive impact of raising Wegovy’s net price & the IRA now has a smaller impact, & 3) Supply into 2024 is likely to be better than consensus is m...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 11/13/2023
We are adding CaixaBank and Deutsche Börse to the ODDO BHF European Large Caps List. At the same time, we are removing Accor (market scepticism on the hotel sector, valuation drivers behind us) and Ryanair (same market scepticism on travel, very good Q3 results having already helped the stock rally). We are also downgrading the Travel & Leisure sector from Overweight to Market Weight. Since its creation, the ODDO BHF European Large Caps List has recorded a total return of +8.5% compar...
- Bruno Cavalier
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 13/11/2023
Nous faisons entrer CaixaBank et Deutsche Börse dans notre liste de Valeurs recommandées Large Caps. Inversement, nous faisons sortir Accor (scepticisme du marché sur le secteur de l’hôtellerie, catalyseurs derrière nous) et Ryanair (même scepticisme du marché sur les voyages, les très bons résultats T3 ont permis le rebond du titre). Nous dégradons également le secteur du Travel & Leisure de Surpondérer à Neutre. Depuis sa création, notre liste enregistre un total return de +8,5% vs ...
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- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
Novo Nordisk : SELECT: results that justify a change in patient care
>Confirmation of Wegovy's role in cardiac protection for obese patients - At the AHA (American Heart Association) congress, Novo Nordisk recapped on the clinical results of its SELECT trial. Note that the objective of this trial was to demonstrate that, in patients suffering from obesity and cardiovascular disease without a history of diabetes, taking Wegovy improved cardiovascular function in this population (n=17,604). The primary endpoint was a composite (taking se...
- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
Novo Nordisk : SELECT: des résultats qui justifient un changement de l...
>Confirmation de l’intérêt de Wegovy dans la protection cardiaque des obèses - Novo Nordisk est revenu, lors du congrès de l’AHA, sur les résultats cliniques de son essai nommé SELECT. Pour rappel, l’objectif de cet essai était de démontrer que la prise de Wegovy chez des patients souffrant d'obésité et d'une maladie cardiovasculaire sans antécédents de diabète améliorait la fonction cardio-vasculaire de cette population (n=17 604). Le critère primaire était un critèr...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novo Nordisk (Hold, TP: DKK750.00) - Non-fatal MI drives 3-point MACE
We attended the AHA conference in Philadelphia, where Novo Nordisk presented its detailed SELECT data. All three components contributed to the 20% MACE reduction, but only non-fatal MI was statistically significant. We expect a global label expansion for Wegovy in 2024, but likely without a CV death benefit claim. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK750 target price.
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
Thematic - Obesity Drugs Won’t Change The World
Despite our bullish stance on Novo & the obesity drugs, in this note we aim to show the minimal impact they will have on the broader economy despite recent fears that new obesity drugs will have a material negative impact on a broad range of sectors. We show that these claims are well overblown in the near-term, with only 0.15% of the US population currently on anti-obesity drugs (AODs). Our forecasts, which point to a $50bn US market by 2030, imply that
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